23 minutes ago, Cshi22 said:

thanks, how do you pick the winners from losers? I'm going to read the article now

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=define%3Adivination&ia=definition

Queues music "all I do is win"

1 hour ago, Cshi22 said:

thanks, how do you pick the winners from losers? I'm going to read the article now

A re-seller winner is a set that a lot of people want when it is not available in sufficient quantities. One example of 'not available in sufficient quantities' is when it isn't produced anymore, and wasn't hoarded by re-sellers a lot. And there you have your main variables:

• Will people pay a lot more than you did for a given set (regardless of scarcity)?
• Will a set get scarce some time into the future, such that the price has a chance to go up?
• How long will it take from 'now' (when you buy) to when you sell with some profit?

So you see - that's all questions about the future, which tends to be hard to predict. You can try to estimate future demand from current demand, future scarcity from current sales volume and estimated current reseller-stock, and try to predict retirement dates. But in the end all is just an estimate, and might be off quite a bit. In the end it is a combination of

• good and timely information on things where you can get it (and here this site can help; deals, upcoming sets, ...)
• your 'gut' being right
• luck

9 minutes ago, 10230 said:

A re-seller winner is a set that a lot of people want when it is not available in sufficient quantities. One example of 'not available in sufficient quantities' is when it isn't produced anymore, and wasn't hoarded by re-sellers a lot. And there you have your main variables:

• Will people pay a lot more than you did for a given set (regardless of scarcity)?
• Will a set get scarce some time into the future, such that the price has a chance to go up?
• How long will it take from 'now' (when you buy) to when you sell with some profit?

So you see - that's all questions about the future, which tends to be hard to predict. You can try to estimate future demand from current demand, future scarcity from current sales volume and estimated current reseller-stock, and try to predict retirement dates. But in the end all is just an estimate, and might be off quite a bit. In the end it is a combination of

• good and timely information on things where you can get it (and here this site can help; deals, upcoming sets, ...)
• your 'gut' being right
• luck

Let me add to that last list:

• patience
• steady supply of money
• Good Reputation (on the sites where you intend to sell)

The secret:

1) Limited release window and availability

2) Considered to be crap or a bad choice by The Horde

3) Secretly popular with actual customers, not just resellers.

4) Something unusual or unlikely to be remade.

25 minutes ago, Battrax said:

The secret:

1) Limited release window and availability

2) Considered to be crap or a bad choice by The Horde

3) Secretly popular with actual customers, not just resellers.

4) Something unusual or unlikely to be remade.

Yep.  Which is why I still think Birds 21301 is the sleeper set from 2015 and potentially the best CAGR performer of the years new releases.  Meets each one of these requirements very well.  Now, back to your regularly scheduled advice...

Edited December 18, 20159 yr by diablo2112

Here we go, 9493 is about to pass 10240.

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B005VPRG3S

 

75082 TIE advanced and 75085 Hailfire are in the 2016 1h EU catalogue, suggesting they are not done just yet. No retiring soon tags  at SAH either.

1 hour ago, exciter1 said:

Here we go, 9493 is about to pass 10240.

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B005VPRG3S

 

No one would ever pay that much for an OT ship that has been redone countless times...lol...

17 minutes ago, Veegs said:

No one would ever pay that much for an OT ship that has been redone countless times...lol...

And 75102 is going to kill it when it comes out anyway.

On 11/9/2015 at 0:35 PM, BrickLegacy said:

Here we go, 9493 is about to pass 10240.

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B005VPRG3S

Never underestimate the stupidity, i mean, the ignorance of the mass.

 

This jump happened pretty quickly, I sold mine for about $170 last week. And the FBA supply has gone way down. 

I have one left that I am not sure I want to get rid of. I put it up for $275. You are going to need to bring the $$$ if you want to pry my last Porkins away from me!

I sold a bunch for $100-$120.  It was hard to wait and see what the new X-Wing would do.

Here, 120-140 is the going rate, possibly as 10240 is still around. When it retires, we should see a similar spike.

Wow, Imperial Hotel has made a comeback at US shop. Still marked down, too.

Yeah, I blew some out a few weeks ago that were about 20.00 less than what they are going for now.  

To me, this isn't a sign that Red 5 is going to do poor.  This is a sign that Red 5 will do extremely well!

It's on sale in the US ($104,-) and isn't marked 'retiring soon', whereas in Europe it's not on sale (€130,-, being approximately $141,-) and is marked 'retiring soon'. 

Price difference is 36%. 

21118 Minecraft The Mine is SOLD OUT at shop at home US, following europe's lead.  I have 3 of these.  Wouldn't mind getting 3 or 4 more.  This is the one minecraft set that most targets and walmarts around me still have in stock so i'm hoping for some clearance action.  Would love to get them for $55.

Tell me how...sorry...Tell us how?

18 minutes ago, brickolodon said:

Tell me how...sorry...Tell us how?

go to target.  get lucky & see them putting on clearance sticker on box.  get lucky twice-  its 50% off.  get lucky three times - you got there before some other brickpicker.  put box in cart.  roll cart to register.   purchase at register preferably self check out to avoid the "someone loves legos" banter.  

Looks like Cinderella's Dream Carriage came back from SOLD OUT.

Edited December 19, 20159 yr by cladner

20 hours ago, Roy vd M. said:

It's on sale in the US ($104,-) and isn't marked 'retiring soon', whereas in Europe it's not on sale (€130,-, being approximately $141,-) and is marked 'retiring soon'. 

Price difference is 36%. 

You have to take into account the Dutch markup imposed by TLG!

19 hours ago, cladner said:

go to target.  get lucky & see them putting on clearance sticker on box.  get lucky twice-  its 50% off.  get lucky three times - you got there before some other brickpicker.  put box in cart.  roll cart to register.   purchase at register preferably self check out to avoid the "someone loves legos" banter.  

Looks like Cinderella's Dream Carriage came back from SOLD OUT.

looks like better chance if you gamble...

not sure if it's a joke or not, but 76023 is on the retiring soon page at SAH.

11 minutes ago, project88 said:

not sure if it's a joke or not, but 76023 is on the retiring soon page at SAH.

no waaaaay!!!!  i can't believe it.