LoL! I'm a newbie. Took my three pages to understand that SOH is not Simpson House, but Sydney Opera House.

I see the Tumbler is available on Lego Uk for

I see the Tumbler is available on Lego Uk for

When considering modulars I don't look too much into TH going early. With it's size and price point it feels like a one off. I think when it came out it was also the only time two modulars released the same year. GE-PS-PC feels like the natural order. My gut says PS goes this year in the same fashion as GE last year and FB in 2013. 

And somewhere in LEGO's secret lair: Crap! They found it out! Now we have to conspicuously retire a different exclusive!

And somewhere in LEGO's secret lair: Crap! They found it out! Now we have to conspicuously retire a different exclusive!

Yeah, Let's make them cry and retire Detectives Office.  

over the years?!! U have been on here for one year......

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Brickpicker mobile app

 

I reread my post and thought "wow, that was stupid".  I'm glad you called me out.  Someone needed to.  I do correct myself later.  I guess over the months would be more factually correct.  Then again, when you are on this site daily, weeks seem like months and months seem like years.

What did common sense tell you about the town hall?

 

Common sense told me Town Hall is Town Hall and literally thousand of other sets that were not town hall did not behave like town hall

Town Hall is an outlier. In statistics, you often toss out the outliers when discussing trends. Does the life of the arctic supply plane indicate everything will retire in 6 months? No. It's an outlier, too. Does the life of the DS indicate every LEGO set will be produced FOREVER? No. It's an outlier.

 

We are speaking in grand terms about things we do not control. Maybe PC is already done and no more production will be made. Maybe TH will come back over the summer. Maybe, maybe, maybe...

 

I think this kind of paranoia is exactly what TLG wants because it keeps us buying.

I reread my post and thought "wow, that was stupid". I'm glad you called me out. Someone needed to. I do correct myself later. I guess over the months would be more factually correct. Then again, when you are on this site daily, weeks seem like months and months seem like years.

Lol. All good. I call people out and get called out in top 3 of people behind the scenes.

Unless this is a slip up and you're really trying to tell us you are supraboy and this is your 4th username.......

Edited February 4, 201510 yr by hxckid88

Town Hall is an outlier. In statistics, you often toss out the outliers when discussing trends. Does the life of the arctic supply plane indicate everything will retire in 6 months? No. It's an outlier, too. Does the life of the DS indicate every LEGO set will be produced FOREVER? No. It's an outlier.

 

We are speaking in grand terms about things we do not control. Maybe PC is already done and no more production will be made. Maybe TH will come back over the summer. Maybe, maybe, maybe...

 

I think this kind of paranoia is exactly what TLG wants because it keeps us buying.

Town Hall is an outlier. In statistics, you often toss out the outliers when discussing trends. Does the life of the arctic supply plane indicate everything will retire in 6 months? No. It's an outlier, too. Does the life of the DS indicate every LEGO set will be produced FOREVER? No. It's an outlier.

 

We are speaking in grand terms about things we do not control. Maybe PC is already done and no more production will be made. Maybe TH will come back over the summer. Maybe, maybe, maybe...

 

I think this kind of paranoia is exactly what TLG wants because it keeps us buying.

Well said about we do not know

It would seem that a lot of overthinking has gone into this discussion. Business smarts would say that sets that are poor sellers retire sooner. TH, poor seller, not available. T1,great seller, still available. DS, great seller, eternally available. Why stop producing something that continues to sell?. As modulars continue to grow in popularity and continue to sell to new buyers, I can see continued extending of set runs beyond the "norm". No outliers here, just common sense.

After the TH experience, I would pay close attention to LEGO Shop at Home order limits.  If PC drops to 2 before PS, I would have no problem believing it will be the first set to go, out of order or not.  In SW land, Red 5 before EV would also be out of order, no?  Judging by set numbers that is (10240 versus 10236).  But 'the signs' currently point to Red 5 going first (it's limit 2, for example).

 

It would make sense, but no. 

 

The Xwing came out several months BEFORE the Ewok Village.

 

May the 4th 2013 vs Sept 1st 2013

 

 

Ewok Village Wiki

I think when it came out it was also the only time two modulars released the same year.

 

Are you refering to 10230? I don't think there was another real modular in 2012. The only (arguable) exception I can think of with 2 modulars in one year is 2007 (Market Street and CC).

After the TH experience, I would pay close attention to LEGO Shop at Home order limits.  If PC drops to 2 before PS, I would have no problem believing it will be the first set to go, out of order or not.  In SW land, Red 5 before EV would also be out of order, no?  Judging by set numbers that is (10240 versus 10236).  But 'the signs' currently point to Red 5 going first (it's limit 2, for example).

Unfortunately, ToO and Red 5 were at limit 2 from day 1 of availability. I guess you can only use changes in the limits as guidelines, not absolute values

That I did not know (Red 5 always being limit 2).  Slave 1 has been limit 2 from the start, and Tumbler is limit 1, so limits are useless for those as indicators.  Sandcrawler, PS, PC, T1, and TB are limit 5, though, so watching those might be helpful.

Edited February 5, 201510 yr by GhostDad

Speculation, speculation

While everyone worried about modulars that everyone has had plenty of time to stock up on, all kinds of sets going into the sunset.

Interested how first wave of Lego Movie sets do EOL as well as princess sets. New territory for both

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Brickpicker mobile app

All IMO, but the over-time acquisitions right now are PS and Red 5. I am acquiring 4x the PS that I am of the Red 5; just my personal take on long-term ROI potential.

 

Fourth quarter... Rancor (still seeing these at TRU and B&******); praying no other Rancor iteration shows up in some lame re-hash.

 

Third quarter... Guardians of the Galaxy. Groot = $. That movie will come roaring back with sequels. Tower Bridge. Punch yourself in the face if you miss this one; this is an epic set that will never go out of date. If everything on the shelves were to retire tomorrow, I would spend every well-earned buck I have on TB's exclusively.

 

Second quarter... PC? I would doubt the carpet is yanked out on this one TH-style before PS. Priced well and selling well.

 

Love this thread... fun to hear how everyone is speculating.

Unfortunately, ToO and Red 5 were at limit 2 from day 1 of availability. I guess you can only use changes in the limits as guidelines, not absolute values

When and if Parisian Restaurant drops from 99 i will start to look at it. Just knowing its ok to spend 16k on 1 modular at a time takes all the suspense out of it.

First quarter and opening kickoff. Birds. Awesome $45 set with huge upside. Similar creator sets have had short lifetimes, and this is one set I don't want to be caught short on. Though just released, I'm grabbing quite a few of these.

Price is just right for future AFOL purchase in the $120-200 range, and is in fact one of the few sub $50 MSRP sets with true broad AFOL appeal. I intend to do a few a week, especially at my local TRUs on 10% discount Thursdays.

That I did not know (Red 5 always being limit 2).  Slave 1 has been limit 2 from the start, and Tumbler is limit 1, so limits are useless for those as indicators.  Sandcrawler, PS, PC, T1, and TB are limit 5, though, so watching those might be helpful.

if i remember correctly DS (10188) and SSD (10221) had 99 about 2 years ago. i am not sure if anyone did order that many but it used to be there... just saying...

Edited February 5, 201510 yr by newbie77

You're right, at least about the DS.  PR remains at 99 for whatever reason.  If they ever put it on sale, I'll risk the ban and dive in!

Love Birds as well, but am waiting. A set like that will never out-date.

76000 - Arctic Batman vs. Mr. Freeze is also discounted and sold out on S@H.

76000 - Arctic Batman vs. Mr. Freeze is also discounted and sold out on S@H.

?It has been the case for about a month ... Amazon finally sold out as well.