To continue an earlier thread, here are the sets listed on S@H as "Retiring Soon":

 

Friends - Stephanie's Cool Convertible, Olivia's Speedboat, Mia's Bedroom, Series 1 foil packs

Duplo - Train Starter Set, Doctor's Clinic, Emergency Helicopter

Creator - Apple Tree House

Lego Games - Ninjago, Pirate Plank

Chima Speedorz - CHI Battles, Ring of Fire, Target Practice, CHI Waterfall

Technic - Mini Container Truck

LOTR - Gandalf Arrives, Orc Forge

CMF - Series 9

Architecture - Sugnyemun

Marvel Super Heroes - Captain America's Avenging Cycle

Star Wars - Endor Rebel Trooper and Imperial Trooper Battle Pack, Planet Bespin & Twin Cloud Car, Planet Endor & AT-ST

 

Nothing earth-shattering.  Orc Forge surprises me the most.

1 hour ago, valenciaeric said:

Me and my big mouth! There´s no witchcraft, smoke and mirrors or anything illegal or ethical. It just requires a bit of time to record which shops stock which items and what promos they usually do and when. After 2 years you can see a pattern develop so all you need to do is wait and time your purchases well r.e argos 3x2.

Remember that here we have higher than average RRP prices so 50% is maybe only 30-35% off German prices and certainly nothing even close to US deals.

It's the beginner's mistake I made when I just got into this game: buying a few sets for MSRP. Most notably the 10248 Ferrari F40 just after it was released (not knowing at that time yet exclusive sets will eventually become available at retail stores and get regular discounts like all retail sets do), and the 10240 Red Five X-Wing because I thought Retirement was imminent and it wasn't sold for anything less than MSRP in a few Dutch Lego-specialised toy-stores.

Since then I came to learn the ropes (still learning though!) and am waiting and looking for good deals with preferably at least 20% discount over MSRP. For smaller widely available sets that's of course easier than for special sets like UCS sets or the Advanced Modular Buildings sets. 

The only thing I really buy at MSRP are long retired sets that I sometimes find in small stores in remote areas. And I don't think there is much magic involved in getting really good prices other than putting quite a lot of time and effort in keeping up with /finding all the good deals that might be available.

2 hours ago, valenciaeric said:

Me and my big mouth! There´s no witchcraft, smoke and mirrors or anything illegal or ethical. It just requires a bit of time to record which shops stock which items and what promos they usually do and when. After 2 years you can see a pattern develop so all you need to do is wait and time your purchases well r.e argos 3x2.

Remember that here we have higher than average RRP prices so 50% is maybe only 30-35% off German prices and certainly nothing even close to US deals.

Where is my pm???

17 hours ago, fossilrock said:

UN building and Villa Savoye are retired in EU.  3 sets (berlin, NY, and Venice) are on the way, and so I think one more is on it's way out very soon.  The Leaning Tower of Pisa did go to Sold Out in the US a month ago, but then reappeared about two weeks later.  I think that could be the next one.  The Space Needle is another..but it seems to have so much stock, it may take another year.

At least 4 "new" architecture sets are on the way: Berlin, NY, Venice and Burj Khalifa. I agree that more set are on the way out but I doubt it's Pisa or the Space Needle  - at least in Europe.

What do you all think of this? --> http://www.bol.com/nl/p/lego-star-wars-at-te-75019/1004004013515993/

The 75019 AT-TE set is already retired since late 2014 / early 2015. This Dutch store (originally Dutch store competing with Amazon on the Dutch home-turf) apparently still has it in stock and selling it for MSRP (€99,99) but have this offer now where: buy 4 get 1 free. So 5x 75019, pay 4x = €80 a piece. 

But I'm not really sold on this set. I find it a bit flimsy (when watching the YouTube build-review of it). And I'm not sure whether it will appreciate well over time?

11 minutes ago, Haay said:

What do you all think of this? --> http://www.bol.com/nl/p/lego-star-wars-at-te-75019/1004004013515993/

The 75019 AT-TE set is already retired since late 2014 / early 2015. This Dutch store (originally Dutch store competing with Amazon on the Dutch home-turf) apparently still has it in stock and selling it for MSRP (€99,99) but have this offer now where: buy 4 get 1 free. So 5x 75019, pay 4x = €80 a piece. 

But I'm not really sold on this set. I find it a bit flimsy (when watching the YouTube build-review of it). And I'm not sure whether it will appreciate well over time?

This set is very qestionable. Although I like it. It does not seem to do well. 80 euro a pop is almost twice my buy-in. So I would stay away.

Edited November 12, 201510 yr by Ciglione

3 hours ago, valenciaeric said:

Me and my big mouth! There´s no witchcraft, smoke and mirrors or anything illegal or ethical. It just requires a bit of time to record which shops stock which items and what promos they usually do and when. After 2 years you can see a pattern develop so all you need to do is wait and time your purchases well r.e argos 3x2.

Remember that here we have higher than average RRP prices so 50% is maybe only 30-35% off German prices and certainly nothing even close to US deals.

#1 didn't mean to stir the hornet's nest when I asked initially, I was mainly curious regarding differences in European vs U.S. Pricing on cool sets as I'm possibly moving across the pond in about a year.

#2 Val kindly sent me a PM regarding discounting strategies used to get the deals. Definitely nothing unethical, shady or immoral. No secret hand shakes , hook ups, or hoops to jump through, just good solid Brick Picking strategies + a lot of hard work and tracking to plan purchases in order to maximize all advertised discounts and seasonal promotions. 

4 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

This set is very qestionable. Although I like it. It does not seem to do well. 80 euro a pop is almost twice my buy-in. So I would stay away.

Yeah, that's what I thought as well. It's been much cheaper while it was widely available. I would have bought 1 for my own collection if I had gotten out of my Dark Ages earlier and found it on sale for < €50. But now I'll pass.

1 hour ago, Haay said:

It's the beginner's mistake I made when I just got into this game: buying a few sets for MSRP. Most notably the 10248 Ferrari F40 just after it was released (not knowing at that time yet exclusive sets will eventually become available at retail stores and get regular discounts like all retail sets do), and the 10240 Red Five X-Wing because I thought Retirement was imminent and it wasn't sold for anything less than MSRP in a few Dutch Lego-specialised toy-stores.

Since then I came to learn the ropes (still learning though!) and am waiting and looking for good deals with preferably at least 20% discount over MSRP. For smaller widely available sets that's of course easier than for special sets like UCS sets or the Advanced Modular Buildings sets. 

Ask some pros and they'll tell you that there is nothing wrong with paying retail price or even over retail for a set that is retired. I don't think you were foolish to buy 10240 at retail as most folks here believe that it will retire this year. You were, however, not too smart to buy the Ferrari for retail. Perhaps you can flip it for Xmas at a marginal profit.

75055 is done, and I'm happy to pay retail for it. The new film is coming out, which will undoubtedly reignite interest in the OT, and that light bley wedge is pretty damn iconic. I can see it doubling in price (or better) until a new one is released, which won't be soon.

7 minutes ago, ED-209 said:

Ask some pros and they'll tell you that there is nothing wrong with paying retail price or even over retail for a set that is retired. I don't think you were foolish to buy 10240 at retail as most folks here believe that it will retire this year. You were, however, not too smart to buy the Ferrari for retail. Perhaps you can flip it for Xmas at a marginal profit.

75055 is done, and I'm happy to pay retail for it. The new film is coming out, which will undoubtedly reignite interest in the OT, and that light bley wedge is pretty damn iconic. I can see it doubling in price (or better) until a new one is released, which won't be soon.

I bought 10240 for retail (€229,99) because I read everywhere retirement of 10240 was imminent. That was more than 2 months ago. In the mean time I managed to buy a MISB 10240 through eBay from a reseller in Germany for €190 including shipping. So it was still possible to get it a lot cheaper.

The 10248 Ferrari was really a beginner's mistake. But it's a lesson I had to learn, and to have more fun I opened the box and built it for display. A daily reminder for me to be patient and buy when the timing is right. 

Only one set I bought after retirement, and slightly above original MSRP: the (in my eyes) beautiful 10226 Sopwith Camel. I've got two of them MISB and paid €105 for each of them, including shipping. Bought from a fellow Brickpicker, through eBay. I intend to build one of them some time in the future simply because I like it as a display model, and also because it's hardly appreciating here in Europe anyway.

2 hours ago, ED-209 said:

Ask some pros and they'll tell you that there is nothing wrong with paying retail price or even over retail for a set that is retired. I don't think you were foolish to buy 10240 at retail as most folks here believe that it will retire this year. You were, however, not too smart to buy the Ferrari for retail. Perhaps you can flip it for Xmas at a marginal profit.

75055 is done, and I'm happy to pay retail for it. The new film is coming out, which will undoubtedly reignite interest in the OT, and that light bley wedge is pretty damn iconic. I can see it doubling in price (or better) until a new one is released, which won't be soon.

I think it's "not very clever" to buy at MSRP sets that aren't retired yet. We don't know anymore when sets go (never really did, but it was easier to speculate in the past), so getting excited on retirement and buying at bad prices is just what TLG and Quick flippers want. If you want to make profits, BUY LOW. Never buy in a rush.

I remember PS being the set that was 99% retired. All the shops hiked the prices to 120%(MSRP). It's still out there today.

Please avoid getting drawn into the frenzy. Buy MORE when discounts are there. Speculate less. 

The only argument to buy at MSRP or higher is on retired sets that could have a second life. Harry Potter, TLM, Modulars etc come to mind. But then you run the risk of the WVTS. 

My advice: buy at least > 20% discount. Work the data on the sets so you can ensure your sets have buyers in a couple of years. 

good luck.

Edited November 12, 201510 yr by ZULU

I know nearly all the abbrevations, but WVTS???

6 minutes ago, ZULU said:

I remember PS being the set that was 99% retired. All the shops hiked the prices to 120%(MSRP). It's still out there today.

Please avoid getting drawn into the frenzy. Buy MORE when discounts are there. Speculate less. 

The only argument to buy at MSRP or higher is on retired sets that could have a second life. Harry Potter, TLM, Modulars etc come to mind. But then you run the risk of the WVTS. 

My advice: buy at least > 20% discount. Work the data on the sets so you can ensure your sets have buyers in a couple of years. 

good luck.

what does 99% retired even mean? It's either retired, or it's not.

If it's not retired, then you are a fool to pay over retail price. Sure, I recommend buying at a discount but once a set has officially been retired, that rule goes out the window. After retirement is when CAGR starts to truly climb.

FWIW, I believe that PS will not be done this year.

For us in Slovakia (and middle Europe) is the situation much easier - we dont have any chance to buy exclusive sets with discounts. Classic toy shops here tdont have creator expert, UCS or Ideas sets, only several shops, but they dont give any discounts to such sets. Sometimes we have several exclusive sets in ONE Tesco store and sometimes went to discounts, but there is a 100x bigger demand than the number of available sets. Only sets going to discounts are classic series such as City, SW, etc. Same situation is in neighboring states. So the only chance is to buy exklusives with small discounts combining double VIP points and bonus sets in lego stores - in final, it can decrease the price by 20 %.

Golden rules:

Buy not retired sets only below retail price or with (double) VIP points.

Don't buy retired sets at higher price than retail for investment purposes when they are retired.

 

There are some exceptions wehn you are sure that these sets will increase more.

(Examples: Green Grocer was widely available at 300 Euro, Mars Rover was widely available at 50 Euro).

6 minutes ago, mauro23 said:

Golden rules:

Don't buy retired sets at higher price than retail for investment purposes when they are retired.

 

There are some exceptions wehn you are sure that these sets will increase more.

(Examples: Green Grocer was widely available at 300 Euro, Mars Rover was widely available at 50 Euro).

Can't be a golden rule if you then go and contradict yourself. 

Sure?

Exceptions prove the rule...

:-)

There are no rules except your own rules and then you break them :)

48 minutes ago, mauro23 said:

I know nearly all the abbrevations, but WVTS???

Winter Village Toy Shop released 2009

2015 release - 10249 Winter Toy Shop - VERY similar 

My thought on this is to sell Christmas sets within 3 years

Is anything retiring soon?

1 hour ago, ZULU said:

I think it's "not very clever" to buy at MSRP sets that aren't retired yet. We don't know anymore when sets go (never really did, but it was easier to speculate in the past), so getting excited on retirement and buying at bad prices is just what TLG and Quick flippers want. If you want to make profits, BUY LOW. Never buy in a rush.

 

This is short-sighted.  Although it is harder to predict when exclusives will retire, it remains fairly easy to predict when run-of-the-mill sets will retire.  For example, it was pretty easy to predict that Emerald Express #31015 and Power Digger #31014 would retire this year.  They went a little earlier than I thought they would, but those are two sets that I bought into heavily even at MSRP because they will be selling for at least 2.5x MSRP within a year and will sell quickly even at 3x-4x MSRP.

5 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

Is anything retiring soon?

Some bpers ? 

42026 pull back racer is sold out at US shop.

There is only one rule, and that is to make a profit so that you can buy more lego sets to play.

4 hours ago, Ciglione said:

Where is my pm???

You know too much already!

 

1 hour ago, mesje said:

For us in Slovakia (and middle Europe) is the situation much easier - we dont have any chance to buy exclusive sets with discounts. Classic toy shops here tdont have creator expert, UCS or Ideas sets, only several shops, but they dont give any discounts to such sets. Sometimes we have several exclusive sets in ONE Tesco store and sometimes went to discounts, but there is a 100x bigger demand than the number of available sets. Only sets going to discounts are classic series such as City, SW, etc. Same situation is in neighboring states. So the only chance is to buy exklusives with small discounts combining double VIP points and bonus sets in lego stores - in final, it can decrease the price by 20 %.

FWIW I stopped buying exclusives in May as nothing that has come out since seems like it will do better than what i already have and they are just a PIA to sell and store. I only broke that once to get a ToO after EOL. It´s a flipper´s world these days and I don´t have the skillset to be a long term hoarder in any case.