I guess I'll never understand the purpose of making random, unsubstantiated claims regarding where a particular set is in its production cycle.

 

Seems like lately in this thread and others, there is a lot of talking without much being said.

Just seems to me that hoarder or not, the SOH is a tough sell to me for investing purposes.  

 

Let's just say if you got it at retail of $320, plus tax...that's around $340 investment now.   

 

Then it goes EOL and jumps to $500 quickly.  After all fees you could be left with $420.  So after a year of holding, you could have made a whopping $80 per and taken up a lot of space if you have multiple of them. 

 

If you got 2 PS or 2 PC's let's say at $160 (taxes), then they EOL.  The modulars always seem to jump a lot more quicker.  So after a year if they jumped to $300-350 like the fire brigade has, after fees you are profiting $80 per x 2.  So for the same price you can make $160 profit to the SOH $80.  

 

If you keep multiplying that because you buy many of them, it increases.  Maybe in 4 years the SOH becomes a $1,000 set, but if they modulars do as well, it's a no brainer to me. 

Am I right on this logic, it sounds right in my head.  haha.   

 

All very logical, but I think a short production run + high price point for SOH = little hoarding. 

 

The comparison to modulars is interesting:  Some facts to chew on:

1. There have been five advanced model  Statue of Liberty (2000), Eiffel Tower (2007), Taj Mahal (2008), Tower Bridge (2010), SOH (2013).  Five since 2000, but roughly one every two years.

2. How many modulars have there been, and how often are they released? 9 modulars total, one per year since 2007.

3. Sets with a lower price point typically have higher production runs.  I would guess there are many more sets of each recent modulars produced than SOHs (as of today).

 

Add this all together and I think it's safe to assume there are many fewer SOHs than any of the modular sets.

 

I agree there's a demand component this completely glosses over, but in recent past, it seems like the sets with lower production runs have determined the fastest climbers - see Town Hall - unlike the most popular sellers (see Grand Emporium).  That's why I think SOH will grow quickly if it retires soon, and have a much higher ceiling than any modular.

Seems like lately in this thread and others, there is a lot of talking without much being said.

 

Ooh! I have read posts like this in the TH thread. We all know how that went.

I guess I'll never understand the purpose of making random, unsubstantiated claims regarding where a particular set is in its production cycle.

It's just some people taking turns attempting to rationalize their wishful thinking that X set will retire soon (because they are invested/investing in it) and Y set will not retire soon (because they have none). And I guess others just like to hear themselves talk.

 

We're in the calm after the storm of pre-xmas mass disappearance of many sets and people need to manufacture things to talk about.

Edited February 2, 201510 yr by bricketycricket

I couldn

I guess I'll never understand the purpose of making random, unsubstantiated claims regarding where a particular set is in its production cycle.

I hope our newer members aren't influence by this random EOL chatter.

I hope our newer members aren't influence by this random EOL chatter.

If they do, they'll end up being none the wiser!

If they do, they'll end up being none the wiser!

Or they'll buy up all the SOHs, watch them go EOL in a few months, cash in for billions*, and make a lot of people feel silly!

 

*All figures estimated.

Order status but.....my PS is back ordered form LEGO Shop at Home. Red 5 is waiting on stock

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Brickpicker mobile app

EEE has only been out a year.  Is there something that is making you think that?  I don't have any and I was trying to aquire some others first before this one since I thought I had time.

 

legodelorean here is my thoughts responding to you

 

Well as I prefaced I am only speculationg.

Of course what is this thread called? Speculation?  If it was facts only required I guess this forum would not be needed.

 

Here is my take on things for the EEE:

 

All of it is from memory and therefore subject to being not 100% accurate but I have provided links:

 

- Recently the EEE went to sold out in Europe

http://shop.lego.com/en-GB/Maersk-Line-Triple-E-10241

 

- Recently someone (not me) in Europe contacted Lego LEGO Shop at Home in Europe and they sent them an email confirming it is not coming back he posted (see EEE thread for text)

http://community.brickpicker.com/topic/5924-10241-maersk-triple-e/?p=412876

 

 

- Recently someone else in Europe got a similar response from Lego LEGO Shop at Home in Europe (see EEE thread for message)

http://community.brickpicker.com/topic/5924-10241-maersk-triple-e/?p=415110

 

- I thought someone in the last 6-12 months said Maersk timelines can possibly go shorter than other sets based on history

brickset shows Maersk Train 10219 at about 19 months in US and maersk ship 10155 about 7 months in US

 

- So for me I said I have no idea but here is my thoughts

 I am not all on fire about this set.  I am not saying it is going away.  I am saying I am guessing.  This is a speculation thread.  I have 6 and may want to get 3 or 4 more if I can but am not that worked up about it.

 

If you are wanting to have one I'd suggest to try to get one soon to be safe but who knows it could be here another year.

 

One good thing to look at is from the past Lego Europe LEGO Shop at Home sale. (forget when it was late last year?)  

What is left that was discounted and has not gone to retirement?  I think for sure EEE and SOH.  Almost every other one has gone away from what I remember.

 

- In the case of Red 5, I was not the only one commenting.  Ed Mack basically said he has no idea if it is retiring or not but he also said he suggested if you want one you should consider going ahead and getting it.  Likewise I have no idea if it is going or not but I feel safer with where I am at now than I did two months ago.

 

I hope this helps you in your decision.

 

thanks,

Trek

You mean this new member shouldn't believe everything everyone says on here?!?

Jokes aside, has been great source of information for a newbie! Thanks to all...

Not believing anything I write is an excellent starting point for any new investor 

Trekgate has adopted the NTSB air crash investigation approach to EOL speculation on the EEE - piecing together little clues and shreds of evidece putting them together to give a credible, balanced and reasoned analysis.

 

Turning to SOH, we know it was in the BF sale and is the only one left that hasn

How can we rate the SOH? Is it like the Taj Mahal? Eiffel Tower? Or somewhere in between? I have no clue. Only time will tell. I guess.

 

It will highly depend on when it will be sold out for good. That would change the CAGR from "grand emporium" to "town hall"...

I think the key to the success of the SOH (as an investment) is based on its availability. If it stays as long as the tower bridge did, I would pass and better invest in a big SW set or exclusives 150/200

How can we rate the SOH? Is it like the Taj Mahal? Eiffel Tower? Or somewhere in between? I have no clue. Only time will tell. I guess.

I'm an Australian and I simply don't like it. In real life the SOH is a magnificent building but one which is extremely hard to capture in lego.

Interesting also that here the RRP is $399 which made it the best priced set available compared to US pricing (for reference DS is an eye watering $699). In addition there are tons in every store and was recently on a 30% special ($299) at David Jones who still have tons left.

I for one am giving it a miss.

I'm an Australian and I simply don't like it. In real life the SOH is a magnificent building but one which is extremely hard to capture in lego.

Interesting also that here the RRP is $399 which made it the best priced set available compared to US pricing (for reference DS is an eye watering $699). In addition there are tons in every store and was recently on a 30% special ($299) at David Jones who still have tons left.

I for one am giving it a miss.

 

Granted, I'm no Indian. That being said, I don't think think the TM is a better replica than the SOH. The TB is, but out of those 3, I like the building process of SOH the most.

Edited February 2, 201510 yr by makromizer

 

I hope this helps you in your decision.

 

thanks,

Trek

Thank you for your thorough post.  The info you provided is appreciated.

DS production has stopped and all its assembly lines have been turned over to SOH production, which is soon to flood all markets, everywhere.  Please don't ask for my source.

DS production has stopped and all its assembly lines have been turned over to SOH production, which is soon to flood all markets, everywhere.  Please don't ask for my source.

 

Who's your source?

DS production has stopped and all its assembly lines have been turned over to SOH production, which is soon to flood all markets, everywhere. Please don't ask for my source.

I would believe it if SOH was mostly star wars grey...

How can we rate the SOH? Is it like the Taj Mahal? Eiffel Tower? Or somewhere in between? I have no clue. Only time will tell. I guess.

Neither. Below both.

Who's your source?

The inner workings of his mind...

Most Likely Lego Has a License deal set up with the Sidney Opera House is Australia as the set is sold in there Gift Shop, the big question is for how long. Ed

The LEGO Creator Expert Sydney Opera House set is available from 1st September 2013 at the Opera House shop, David Jones, Myer and Toys

Most Likely Lego Has a License deal set up with the Sidney Opera House is Australia as the set is sold in there Gift Shop, the big question is for how long. Ed

The LEGO Creator Expert Sydney Opera House set is available from 1st September 2013 at the Opera House shop, David Jones, Myer and Toys

Since emazers mentioned this.....

Believe it or not, Arch White House is for sale in the real White House too. I saw it with my own eyes. lol

Well, so as Willis Tower, Seattle Space Needle... haven't been touring too much in NYC though I'm heading back next weekend (fingers crossed for the weather).

The Frank Lloyd wright museum sells all of his sets both in the gift shop and online. They had Robie left at MSRP for about 6 months after EOL.