Earlier, I saw a post but now I do not know where to find it. There was a statement made by one member. He or she said "hopefully we are not like investors buy from other investors" and that results in increasing price. I do believe there are lego lovers joining the lego market every second. There must be someone who was lego fan when he or she was young and later picks the hobby up again..... But thinking about "investors buy from other investors" just concerns me. I, myself, started investing just three months ago after accidentally finding out why some sets were so expensive and later realizing that was called "retired sets"...and then knowing there was actually another world of investment -- lego. A brick toy is now coated with money and "greed"...... what do you think? maybe your input will make me feel better?

Anyone who is currently buying older sealed sets is buying them from another investor already. Sure, there a few random things that pop up where someone had a set stuck in the closet that they happened to find and the kids are gone, but for the most part, buying sets and holding on to them for a while to later resell is not new. If it hadn't been going on, there would be no way for anyone just getting into this to get older sets. It won't become a thing where only investors are shuffling sets back and forth between themselves because there will continue to be kids who find sets they want and builders will come out of their dark ages and want to build the sets they missed out on. Sure, one day maybe LEGO will be of no interest to anyone, but that doesn't seem very likely to happen anytime soon.

Even if ebay and bricklink sales were exclusively investor to investor, that still means that quite a few people missed those sets at retail. The question is, will the market reach a point where everyone who will ever want a set buys it at retail? I don't think so. I'm 33 years old and just got back into lego last december. There are more where i came from.

Of course, the flipside is market saturation, such as hmmmm, 700 sealed jabba's palaces or vampyres castles hitting ebay the week after they retire. The more popular this hobby becomes, the more investors there will be. More investors, more sealed sets. More sealed sets, less return on investment for all of us. Soooo.... I demand half of you guys open all your sets tonight :)

Earlier, I saw a post but now I do not know where to find it.

There was a statement made by one member. He or she said "hopefully we are not like investors buy from other investors" and that results in increasing price.

I do believe there are lego lovers joining the lego market every second. There must be someone who was lego fan when he or she was young and later picks the hobby up again.....

But thinking about "investors buy from other investors" just concerns me.

I, myself, started investing just three months ago after accidentally finding out why some sets were so expensive and later realizing that was called "retired sets"...and then knowing there was actually another world of investment -- lego.

A brick toy is now coated with money and "greed"......

what do you think? maybe your input will make me feel better?

Fear not! Here are some facts...LEGO sets increase in value after being retired. This has happened for years. Years before the term "LEGO Investing" was even promoted by us here at BrickPicker or was even a mainstream idea. Toys make for great investments...Barbie Dolls anyone? Will some investors buy from other investors...sure, but there are so many new adults and children being introduced to LEGO bricks on a daily basis. that I think that the market is not controlled by that.

LEGO sales are child driven and always have been. Investors make for a small portion of the overall LEGO market. There is still plenty of opportunity to make money in this market. Buy low, sell high. Simple. LOL

I fear. I really do. It's not like this thing has peaked yet. We're only four years on since the falcon retired. The fire brigade and death star are still on the shelves. What's our point of reference? This was the point of my earlier thread asking who was investing before 10179. I honestly feel safer in buying sets retired before 2012 than i do buying currently available sets. I feel like there are something like, i don't know, what's brickpicker's current memebership population? All those guys with volkswagen campers sitting in closets waiting until christmas 2013, and more of them every day. Which statistic is rising faster, new investors or new builders? Obviously for now the market says there are more new builders. But for how long?

A brick toy is now coated with money and "greed"......

Lol. I love your choice of words.

I fear. I really do. It's not like this thing has peaked yet. We're only four years on since the falcon retired. The fire brigade and death star are still on the shelves. What's our point of reference? This was the point of my earlier thread asking who was investing before 10179. I honestly feel safer in buying sets retired before 2012 than i do buying currently available sets. I feel like there are something like, i don't know, what's brickpicker's current memebership population? All those guys with volkswagen campers sitting in closets waiting until christmas 2013, and more of them every day. Which statistic is rising faster, new investors or new builders? Obviously for now the market says there are more new builders. But for how long?

There is no way to know how long, that's the risk when investing in Lego, or investing in anything for that matter. When you buy stocks you try to buy low and when they get high you question, "should I sell now or hold a little longer?" It's the same thing in the Lego game. Unfortunately no one can predict when or if Lego investing will come to an end or when sets may suddenly decrease in value due to a bubble. Right now Lego is hot, red hot! Their sales are phenomenal! Therefore secondary market sales are doing great as well. As of right now things are okay, but there is always the chance things could change in the future as there are more and more investors getting into Lego investing everyday. We probably will never see any of the recent 2011-2012 sets become $1,000+ sets like we did in the past, there's just too many resellers now. But that doesn't mean there still isn't good money to be made if you hunt down and find good deals, and resell at the right time. Lego investing gets tougher and tougher every day, and every year. It is a risk, a grind, and it's not for everyone.

I think the vast majority of people who invest in Lego sets buy then while they are being produced, not after retirement. It should currently be easier to make $100 from buying Grand Emporium than to invest in a Green Grocer. Definitely depends on timing, but at a 4 vs 1 ratio, the GE is a better investment from here on out I would think. The slight alternative I can see is buying sets from other buyers immediately after it's learned the set is retired and before they begin to jump. But that's not really what the OP meant. I think the majority of Ebay set buyers rip them or get them for their kids.

There is no way to know how long, that's the risk when investing in Lego, or investing in anything for that matter. When you buy stocks you try to buy low and when they get high you question, "should I sell now or hold a little longer?" It's the same thing in the Lego game. Unfortunately no one can predict when or if Lego investing will come to an end or when sets may suddenly decrease in value due to a bubble. Right now Lego is hot, red hot! Their sales are phenomenal! Therefore secondary market sales are doing great as well. As of right now things are okay, but there is always the chance things could change in the future as there are more and more investors getting into Lego investing everyday. We probably will never see any of the recent 2011-2012 sets become $1,000+ sets like we did in the past, there's just too many resellers now. But that doesn't mean there still isn't good money to be made if you hunt down and find good deals, and resell at the right time. Lego investing gets tougher and tougher every day, and every year. It is a risk, a grind, and it's not for everyone.

Right on point. Most people have no idea how much space LEGO investing requires to make serious money. It takes up rooms. Many people don't have extra room to spare, so how can they store sets to resell? They can't, unless they rent space, then that eats into profits.

Investing aspects aside, what is neat about LEGO sets is that they keep and increase in value, even used ones. If you want to just buy, build, sell and start all over on a small scale, you can. You can pay for your LEGO hobby with your LEGO hobby. That's damn cool.

From an investment standpoint I like the optionality Lego offers. Sets rarely fall under retail price post EOL. A good portion of those double, some triple, really good designs/sets quadruple and every once in awhile you hit a homerun like 10179 or Market Street. If its a stinker you can open it and build it, display it, put it back in the box and sell it second hand-at least getting back some of your investment. Part out the minifigs, sell the bricks bulk, after stripping the better more rare types. Give them out as gifts (you got a twenty year stockpile of birthday/Christmas gifts-for men that's a plus since the shops are absolutely ridiculously packed Dec 23rd (and we don't like shopping to begin with (unless its Lego))) ). Try that with some hairy little penny stock.

I fear. I really do. It's not like this thing has peaked yet. We're only four years on since the falcon retired. The fire brigade and death star are still on the shelves. What's our point of reference? This was the point of my earlier thread asking who was investing before 10179. I honestly feel safer in buying sets retired before 2012 than i do buying currently available sets. I feel like there are something like, i don't know, what's brickpicker's current memebership population? All those guys with volkswagen campers sitting in closets waiting until christmas 2013, and more of them every day. Which statistic is rising faster, new investors or new builders? Obviously for now the market says there are more new builders. But for how long?

You're making a huge assumption that when someone joins the site that suddenly a new serious buyer and seller of LEGO has been minted. An interest in LEGO, even an interest in making money off of LEGO, does not mean that a new serious buyer and seller exists. As Ed pointed out, it requires money, time, lots of space, etc...

You're also assuming that everyone that buys and intends to sell knows how to sell later at a profit. That's easier said than done. This is purely speculative on my part, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that based on things that I've seen that people are generally not that good at math and minding their sums.

You're making a huge assumption that when someone joins the site that suddenly a new serious buyer and seller of LEGO has been minted. An interest in LEGO, even an interest in making money off of LEGO, does not mean that a new serious buyer and seller exists. As Ed pointed out, it requires money, time, lots of space, etc...

You're also assuming that everyone that buys and intends to sell knows how to sell later at a profit. That's easier said than done. This is purely speculative on my part, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that based on things that I've seen that people are generally not that good at math and minding their sums.

Good points as usual. I just want to add: getting the stock and see the projected profit on paper is by far easier than the process for selling and actually getting the hard cold profit in hand. Some people will realize and decide that retail is just simply not their cup-o-tea.

I just look at a demand-pull inflation chart. When the demand is greater than the supply, the price rises. Really rather simple, and Minecraft proved this last year. When there is no longer a retail version of a set, the price will rise if there is still a demand from a buyer. This chart isn't directly made for Lego, but I feel it applies to this situation.

You're making a huge assumption that when someone joins the site that suddenly a new serious buyer and seller of LEGO has been minted. An interest in LEGO, even an interest in making money off of LEGO, does not mean that a new serious buyer and seller exists. As Ed pointed out, it requires money, time, lots of space, etc...

You're also assuming that everyone that buys and intends to sell knows how to sell later at a profit. That's easier said than done. This is purely speculative on my part, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that based on things that I've seen that people are generally not that good at math and minding their sums.

You and Ed are completely right, but lets say technically everyone who invested in the last 3 months invested into atleast 1 Helm's Deep. Things like this will increase the time until Helm's Deep reaches decent return (it will reach for sure).

But a time may come when investing in LEGO will mean you will have to Buy set on BEST discount and wait 5-15 years to get good returns (150%+ net return) I already think that investing in 2nd largest set (Mines of Moria) might see quicker returns of similar percentages as opposed to (for example) Helm's Deep purely because everyone (all hardcore investors like Ed, and many more part time investors bought only helm's Deep and passed on Moria)

And your comment about people not knowing how to sell, is legit, but only for sets that are planned to be sold as soon as possible. I have 2 Toy Shops that I paid 50

Rule of 7's....I cant see tying up a lot a cash in toys that take some time to liquidate in case I need the funds. Maybe a few sets here and there, but to have several thousands and thousands of dollars makes me a little apprehensive.

You're making a huge assumption that when someone joins the site that suddenly a new serious buyer and seller of LEGO has been minted. An interest in LEGO, even an interest in making money off of LEGO, does not mean that a new serious buyer and seller exists. As Ed pointed out, it requires money, time, lots of space, etc...

You're also assuming that everyone that buys and intends to sell knows how to sell later at a profit. That's easier said than done. This is purely speculative on my part, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that based on things that I've seen that people are generally not that good at math and minding their sums.

You and Ed are completely right, but lets say technically everyone who invested in the last 3 months invested into atleast 1 Helm's Deep. Things like this will increase the time until Helm's Deep reaches decent return (it will reach for sure).

But a time may come when investing in LEGO will mean you will have to Buy set on BEST discount and wait 5-15 years to get good returns (150%+ net return) I already think that investing in 2nd largest set (Mines of Moria) might see quicker returns of similar percentages as opposed to (for example) Helm's Deep purely because everyone (all hardcore investors like Ed, and many more part time investors bought only helm's Deep and passed on Moria)

And your comment about people not knowing how to sell, is legit, but only for sets that are planned to be sold as soon as possible. I have 2 Toy Shops that I paid 50