I thought it might be fun to see what peoples predictions are on which sets may be discounted on Lego's Black Friday event this year.

Of the so called exclusives possible candidates imo are as follows:

 

30 percent off each

Saturn V  (maybe a repeat of last year)

Treehouse

Flintstones

Disney Train and Station  (maybe a repeat of last year)

Tantive IV 

Vestas Wind Turbine

Roller Coaster - I really have a feeling that this will be in.

 

I would love to hear everyone else's predictions.

 

Ninjago City was 30% last year too.

12 minutes ago, joneyyy1981 said:

disney train, over here anyway. absolute flop that

Maybe there's just no sale items on for this VIP weekend. 

Ninjago city was so hard to get in the UK. Stock was a major issue for certain sets last year. 

3 hours ago, Imsorad said:

Ninjago City was 30% last year too.

Looks like it will be 30% off again in February.

12 minutes ago, elmaslıefendi said:

Looks like it will be 30% off again in February.

February??

4 hours ago, joneyyy1981 said:

disney train, over here anyway. absolute flop that

Yea, 30% off in North America too. I grabbed a few but had a very hard time selling them. Very slim profit, but at least I got points and the GWPs.

Edited November 16, 20205 yr by eliminator

3 minutes ago, eliminator said:

Yea, 30% off in North America too. I grabbed a few but had a very hard time selling them. Very slim profit, but at least I got points and the GWPs.

Yeah, those seemed a crazy good deal when I bought them... and still, on the shelf they sit...

32 minutes ago, eliminator said:

Yea, 30% off in North America too. I grabbed a few but had a very hard time selling them. Very slim profit, but at least I got points and the GWPs.

What are everyone thoughts on Disney train being 30% off again on BF (or VIP)?? I passed on it last year but kinda regret not getting at least one... hoping it comes back so i can grab one (or two)

Edited November 17, 20205 yr by Bricks Eh

Disney Train and Apocalypseburg were great to get the GWP's. 

Train sets sold with 10% profit to get rid of it, Apocalypseburg sets sold with 80-100% profit

I don't expect an Apocalypseburg equivalent this year... 

 

 

 

 

What does everyone do with their extra dickens? flip in Dec or wait till next xmas? what do you figure it will go for?

38 minutes ago, Bricks Eh said:

What does everyone do with their extra dickens? flip in Dec or wait till next xmas? what do you figure it will go for?

next year obv. 

$100 my prediction Q4 2021

4 minutes ago, Bricklectic said:

next year obv. 

$100 my prediction Q4 2021

Yowza... you think it will be worth more than previous christmas GWP sets? i see lots of previous ones selling for $40-50 now... the drawer on this one is quite cool

7 minutes ago, Bricks Eh said:

Yowza... you think it will be worth more than previous christmas GWP sets? i see lots of previous ones selling for $40-50 now... the drawer on this one is quite cool

its unique. might be wrong obv. not a lot of precedent to go on here.

also, buyin is higher then in previous years. less ppl will have this, and likely lego made less corespondingly

Edited November 17, 20205 yr by Bricklectic

4 minutes ago, Bricklectic said:

its unique. might be wrong obv. not a lot of precedent to go on here.

also, buyin is higher then in previous years. less ppl will have this, and likely lego made less corespondingly

True... i have to say, the drawer is really cool

Anyone have any further info about if the GWP includes sale items??? (i heard it doesn’t?)... in addition to this... anyone hear about what will be on sale VIP weekend?

This weekend is just double points and the gwps.  Pretty sure how it's been for awhile now. I mean I'm the one who posts the sales the last 5 years or so and that's the way it's been or how I remember it at least.  

35 minutes ago, ravenb99 said:

This weekend is just double points and the gwps.  Pretty sure how it's been for awhile now. I mean I'm the one who posts the sales the last 5 years or so and that's the way it's been or how I remember it at least.  

Let's keep that streak alive.

39 minutes ago, ravenb99 said:

This weekend is just double points and the gwps.  Pretty sure how it's been for awhile now. I mean I'm the one who posts the sales the last 5 years or so and that's the way it's been or how I remember it at least.  

Nah, musta been somebody else.

Dickens will be a $100 in a year, no doubt.  Many of the Christmas GWPs have no figs.  This has 3 and they are collectible just on their own merits.

A lot of folks are going to miss getting this, so the supply will be more reseller-heavy than normal (my theory).  This will be in demand....

Edited November 18, 20205 yr by thedingman5

2 minutes ago, thedingman5 said:

Dickens will be a $100 in a year, no doubt.  Many of the Christmas GWPs have no figs.  This has 3 and they are collectible just on their own merits.

A lot of folks are going to miss getting this, so the supply will be more reseller-heavy than normal (my theory).  This will be in demand....

unless the production numbers are wayyyyy up this year...

21 minutes ago, ravenb99 said:

unless the production numbers are wayyyyy up this year...

I don’t think he was guessing...

30 minutes ago, ravenb99 said:

unless the production numbers are wayyyyy up this year...

So there's a chance this thing will be for sale in July?

6 minutes ago, fuzzy_bricks said:

So there's a chance this thing will be for sale in July?

... or this Charles Dickens GWP could be a "Christmas in July" 2021 promo ... just as the Christmas Tree was this year

6 hours ago, ravenb99 said:

unless the production numbers are wayyyyy up this year...

Hmm sounds like the market could be flooded. I just hope it won't come back as an actual set sold by Lego next year. At least it shouldn't be hard to get with this new info. 

Maybe though it's a set to sell now and not hold seeming as we have no idea what there plans are with it are going forward. 

On a side note I really do wish we knew what was coming up for the actual Lego black Friday event, I don't want to end up purchasing sets that will be discounted a week later. 

Edited November 18, 20205 yr by raulaco

1 hour ago, raulaco said:

Hmm sounds like the market could be flooded. I just hope it won't come back as an actual set sold by Lego next year. At least it shouldn't be hard to get with this new info. 

Maybe though it's a set to sell now and not hold seeming as we have no idea what there plans are with it are going forward. 

On a side note I really do wish we knew what was coming up for the actual Lego black Friday event, I don't want to end up purchasing sets that will be discounted a week later. 

well the Christmas tree coming back in the summer and selling out was a nice reminder for folks which fueled price increases going into the holidays (North America).  I regretfully sold a few of mine for sub $50 when currently going for $85+ 

The 10242 Mini Cooper retired in December 2018, was discounted for Black Friday 2018 and also included the Christmas Gift promo. 

So it's quite likely this year we'll see the VW Beetle 10252 (already on "Retiring Soon") get the same treatment.

Other possible reductions could be: 

75244 Tantive IV

21318 Tree House

21316 The Flintstones

Maybe also a Harry Potter set, and a Jurassic World set ...

Edited November 18, 20205 yr by HandyHand