So as the thread suggest, I would love your vote on which set do you think it will appreciate the most and wil lget best CAGR or annual growth. I personally think 1. Helms Deep (because it is castle type) 2. Orc Forge (Exclusive and Orthanc is being released) 3. Mines of Moria (granted we do not get armored trolls and another Boromir and possibly Balrog*** (hopefully))

I certainly agree with the over the top pricing. But realistically we can say that about nearly all licensed themes now. Those higher price points are here to stay. You can argue really that most of the LOTR/Hobbit sets are overpriced, I haven

Love this theme, my favourite, I'm a huge LOTR fan (how could I not be, I'm from NZ!). Great thread, would love to discuss this theme a lot more. I have written reviews of each of these sets along with the 3 polybags that could be considered part of the line, so I won't repeat all my detailed thoughts here. Overall I think the some of the sets in the theme sit in a bit of a strange 'no mans land' of appeal. To me LOTR is more of a teen, adult or AFOL audience. It also appeals to non-Lego collectors that collect wider LOTR gear (there are plenty of these!). To that demographic I think the sets that are obvious 'playset' types are a bit of a miss. The majority of buyers of this line will want display sets. Sure some kids may get into it after watching the Hobbit, but ninjago, friends, Chima, etc capture far more attention for them. The thing propping up some of those playsets is the minifigures, which are superb and very collectable. If the current figures are released in later sets I really think that will hurt investment values. Possibly not so much if the figures are the same characters but variants. Nazgul will probably hold the value up of Weathertop as plenty of collectors want to have 9 riders. Most other sets though you really need one only. I have all the sets and have built and displayed them. The only ones still on display are Helm's Deep with Uruk-Hai Army. Plus I have all the minifigs displayed. I also have 79003 from Hobbit on display as well (the only Hobbit set I bought). In a loose order of investment returns in terms of %, high to low, for 1-1.5 yrs this would be my predictions: Polybags (Elrond then Uruk-hai, then Frodo Cooking) Helm's Deep Uruk-Hai Army Orc Forge Weathertop Mines of Moria Gandalf Arrives Shelob Attacks I think wave 2 is looking promising, better than wave 1 even. Pirate ship, Black Gate (must have 2!), Orthanc (UCS maybe!). Great stuff.

Watch what happens this summer when wave one goes into retirement and starts to dry up at retail. I'm betting Helms Deep in particular jumps big time on the secondary market and rewards investors.

Watch what happens this summer when wave one goes into retirement and starts to dry up at retail. I'm betting Helms Deep in particular jumps big time on the secondary market and rewards investors.

As I currently have 11 of them and still adding, I am looking forward to Helm's Deep being discontinued and then watching how things fall out from there.

I love the whole LOTR line and very happy Lego got the license. I think the sets that will do the best will be the Mines of Moria (because the uniqueness of the cave troll) and the Orc Forge (because of the white handprinted material). As a side note to all of this Lego.com has Weathertop listed as call to check availability. While I know this doesn't mean it is end of lining I personally didn't see this set taking off or selling at a rate Lego couldn't keep it stocked. They must not have anticipated it selling at a particular pace.

Just curious where you heard that there would be no battle packs released, I would love it if they did but the lack of them would change my investment choices substantially. Most importantly, the figures would go up substantially in value, especially the orc forge and Uruk Hai army. Personally, I like weathertop quite a bit on its own, I have never paid more than $42 for one of them and at that price, the cost per brick and value is good. I would much rather be picking them up for $30 though, personally I am not afraid of it not doing well.

Helms deep and orc forge though personally the wizard battle will be worth a heap in the future

Just curious where you heard that there would be no battle packs released, I would love it if they did but the lack of them would change my investment choices substantially. Most importantly, the figures would go up substantially in value, especially the orc forge and Uruk Hai army.

Personally, I like weathertop quite a bit on its own, I have never paid more than $42 for one of them and at that price, the cost per brick and value is good. I would much rather be picking them up for $30 though, personally I am not afraid of it not doing well.

Well i did read alot about this and while there was no official response, alot of more knowledgable people than me about TLG and contracts said that there is a clause in LEGO LOTR contract (not sure about Hobbit license) that only allows LEGO (TLG) to release amounts of minifigure proportionate to the set size. Since LOTR action figure license is in the hands of some other company.

I will try and find some threads about this but this above is the point why TLG is not responding or saying anything regarding Battle packs for LOTR, which is a shame.

I think there is something similiar with the LEGO license for Star Wars. Someone on CUUSOO submitted the idea for a series of Ultrabuild characters around Star Wars and they archived it after receiving around 1,300 supporters. Something about "conflict with a current license"?

Here's the direct link to the now archived project.

I think there is something similiar with the LEGO license for Star Wars. Someone on CUUSOO submitted the idea for a series of Ultrabuild characters around Star Wars and they archived it after receiving around 1,300 supporters. Something about "conflict with a current license"?

Here's the direct link to the now archived project.

Exactly

It is highly unlikely we would EVER get LOTR Battle Packs, so this is something to keep in mind for future

It is highly unlikely we would EVER get LOTR Battle Packs, so this is something to keep in mind for future

It is too bad that we won't get battle packs for LOTR but agreeing with what you said before, perhaps in the end that will just give even more value to the "Uruk-Hai Army" and "The Orc Forge" sets. Maybe even a little to the "Uruk-Hai with ballista" polybag.

It is too bad that we won't get battle packs for LOTR but agreeing with what you said before, perhaps in the end that will just give even more value to the "Uruk-Hai Army" and "The Orc Forge" sets. Maybe even a little to the "Uruk-Hai with ballista" polybag.

Which is good in my opinion.

The only thing I am in fear of is that they will ''cancel'' LOTR line after 2nd wave, which is unlikely but possible, with words that it did not perform as good as LEGO aimed at and with fact that 3rd Hobbit movie is released barely 6 months after 2nd which leaves ''0'' room for 3rd wave before Hobbit hits.

So will we have..

LOTR line 1

Hobbit line 1

LOTR line 2

Hobbit line 2

then

Hobbit line 3

LOTR line 3?

or:

LOTR line 1

Hobbit line 1

LOTR line 2

Hobbit line 2

then

Hobbit line 3

Hobbit line 4

(no LOTR)

or:

LOTR line 1

Hobbit line 1

LOTR line 2

Hobbit line 2

then

LOTR line 3(when 3rd movie of Hobbit hits)

Hobbit line 3 at X-max

Maybe I am just thinking too much but fact that movie 3 is released 6 months after makes me worried for LOTR.

The third movie has been pushed back and will be released at the same time of the year as the others

It is too bad that we won't get battle packs for LOTR but agreeing with what you said before, perhaps in the end that will just give even more value to the "Uruk-Hai Army" and "The Orc Forge" sets. Maybe even a little to the "Uruk-Hai with ballista" polybag.

Which is good in my opinion.

The only thing I am in fear of is that they will ''cancel'' LOTR line after 2nd wave, which is unlikely but possible, with words that it did not perform as good as LEGO aimed at and with fact that 3rd Hobbit movie is released barely 6 months after 2nd which leaves ''0'' room for 3rd wave before Hobbit hits.

Maybe I am just thinking too much but fact that movie 3 is released 6 months after makes me worried for LOTR.

I would be worried as to how things will pan out, myself. My optimism would hope that LEGO did a full trilogy of waves for each side of the coin. The end of this year and the beginning of the next will be an interesting one!

The third movie has been pushed back and will be released at the same time of the year as the others

Oh really? Hmm....

So much for speculation, haha.

The third movie has been pushed back and will be released at the same time of the year as the others

Really? Can we get some source? Last time I read was June/July or something close to that

This would be (kinda) wonderful news for LEGO part.

Jeebus.........apparently LOTR is more popular than I suspected.

Jeebus.........apparently LOTR is more popular than I suspected.

....Ya think? Great work detective.

Really? Can we get some source? Last time I read was June/July or something close to that

This would be (kinda) wonderful news for LEGO part.

http://insidemovies.ew.com/2013/02/28/the-hobbit-there-and-back-again-release-date/

The news is nearly two weeks old :p

http://insidemovies.ew.com/2013/02/28/the-hobbit-there-and-back-again-release-date/

The news is nearly two weeks old

Yeah I am sure it is, but I dont really check those news every few weeks, more like every few months. I am quite busy and with so much info my head might explode :P

I am quite busy and with so much info my head might explode

I can so relate. Sometimes the data overload makes me feel like this guy....

9472-1: Attack On Weathertop

Questions are: Only time we see Nazgul? I doubt it, Merry? possible (but there is still pelennor) I think this set might actually do rather bad. It might just be cheapest set to get 7 Nazgul but that will be it. i expect it to not increase much over the next year (after EOL) so unless you got heavy discount (30%+) I think this will do poor, I skipped it)

Because of general investing ideas towards Weathertop were to skip it, I think ts going to do well.

Everyone has a handful of Helm's Deep. noone has any Weathertops, and its already sold out in North America.

Its a shame really, Weathertop was my favorite in the line,as others have mentioned, just a tad overpriced. $50 usd would have been ace! ($30-37.50 wholesale)

LOTR/hobbit sets seem to be rotating pretty fast so there could be a collector frenzy with this line if Weathertop performs well.

Great thread Alcarin, and I like your Analysis!

It will be interesting to see how the theme performs 5 years, a decade down the road. I have a feeling you are probably spot on with your predicitons. (haha except for weathertop)

Early retired sets and polybags from the first Lord of the Rings wave could be 'grail' collector items!

Lotr fans are seriously into this Lego stuff!! almost fanatical. its crazy.

the best sets are yet to come!

I picked the Orc Forge because of the light up brick and it's hard to find.