7 minutes ago, BrickLover80 said:

Considering that everyone is in on them and they never last when in stock, I'm starting to worry a bit. So much stock in reseller hand.

And if they selling like hot cakes (which they do, thanks to us), I'm worried Lego might not retire it at the end of this year. Or at least produce more of it. 

I don't think it will be a disaster but I'm not counting on 100% by this Christmas. 

I counted on 100% by last Christmas. Low and behold!

8 minutes ago, BrickLover80 said:

Considering that everyone is in on them and they never last when in stock, I'm starting to worry a bit. So much stock in reseller hand.

And if they selling like hot cakes (which they do, thanks to us), I'm worried Lego might not retire it at the end of this year. Or at least produce more of it. 

I don't think it will be a disaster but I'm not counting on 100% by this Christmas. 

i would be to differ and I would wager with you but i still owe the forum a pic of me eating my undies from may last bet. 

8 minutes ago, Bold-Arrow said:

i would be to differ and I would wager with you but i still owe the forum a pic of me eating my undies from may last bet. 

You remembered....?

Just now, BrickLegacy said:

You remembered....?

i was working on my form for the greater good, but then the pandemic struck and back to square 1 

1 minute ago, Bold-Arrow said:

i was working on my form for the greater good, but then the pandemic struck and back to square 1 

So whats the hold up? I can send you some undies if you're short. 

GBH is as good of a buy as any set Lego sells. The Christmas line has not produced a dud yet. 

1 hour ago, BrickLover80 said:

Considering that everyone is in on them and they never last when in stock, I'm starting to worry a bit. So much stock in reseller hand.

And if they selling like hot cakes (which they do, thanks to us), I'm worried Lego might not retire it at the end of this year. Or at least produce more of it. 

I don't think it will be a disaster but I'm not counting on 100% by this Christmas. 

same argument w/ Diner...yet it's currently retired and only available on Ebay at $300+ or Amazon at $344

So whats the hold up? I can send you some undies if you're short. 
GBH is as good of a buy as any set Lego sells. The Christmas line has not produced a dud yet. 

10235 Market is dudly, not studly, but everything else is great.

48 minutes ago, redghostx said:

2 hours ago, marcandre said:

So whats the hold up? I can send you some undies if you're short. 
GBH is as good of a buy as any set Lego sells. The Christmas line has not produced a dud yet. 

10235 Market is dudly, not studly, but everything else is great.

$225 on ebay, $250 amz. rrp was $99. It took a minute but it got there. 

7 hours ago, exciter1 said:

I counted on 100% by last Christmas. Low and behold!

As any investment fonds has to say: past return is no guarantee of future returns.

I'm not saying it will be a bust but I'm worried it could be one relative to expectations. Last Christmas, there was a shortage, no question. But Lego has a whole year to produce more. And even if Lego isn't that smart, amazon is smart enough to make them produce more. 

I'm sure it will be oos at Christmas but with every reseller having gone deep, I would be surprised if it hit $250 this year. Plus the possibility of a longer run due to its success. 

Again, not saying it will be a dud but we're all chasing them and when they are in stock on amazon, they last about 5 seconds. That's future competition and sends a signal to produce more. Lego might be dumb enough not to do that but lately they have made smarter decisions. Sadly.

1 hour ago, BrickLover80 said:

As any investment fonds has to say: past return is no guarantee of future returns.

I'm not saying it will be a bust but I'm worried it could be one relative to expectations. Last Christmas, there was a shortage, no question. But Lego has a whole year to produce more. And even if Lego isn't that smart, amazon is smart enough to make them produce more. 

I'm sure it will be oos at Christmas but with every reseller having gone deep, I would be surprised if it hit $250 this year. Plus the possibility of a longer run due to its success. 

Again, not saying it will be a dud but we're all chasing them and when they are in stock on amazon, they last about 5 seconds. That's future competition and sends a signal to produce more. Lego might be dumb enough not to do that but lately they have made smarter decisions. Sadly.

Do you really have to sell this year?  People will want them again next year and the year after that...  You won't have much luck buying them at RRP next year.

6 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

Do you really have to sell this year?  People will want them again next year and the year after that...  You won't have much luck buying them at RRP next year.

I don't. But that's my point. I'm sure for some around here not selling this year for $200+ would be a disappointment. 

34 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

Do you really have to sell this year?  People will want them again next year and the year after that...  You won't have much luck buying them at RRP next year.

This is good advice. When I joined this site a 2 year hold after retirement was the norm. No patience anymore.

I had a bunch of the holiday trains and they are going for more than 220 for one where I live. I was thinking whether to sell off my last 4 but think it will creep further up this year as it gets more scarce so I decided to hold it.

13 hours ago, coelian said:

I had a bunch of the holiday trains and they are going for more than 220 for one where I live. I was thinking whether to sell off my last 4 but think it will creep further up this year as it gets more scarce so I decided to hold it.

I literally missed the train on this one

was holding out for a discount when readily available on Amazon at RRP (missed a couple of $80 deals)...then price creeped $125 (bunch of locals had that available)...then $150...on the fence...now it's a solid $200 and I refuse to chase it further.  Now I am just waiting for the next winter train release.

 

I have a good friend who just this year caught the winter village Lego bug and she asked me if I had any tips for getting the older sets. Now, she is a "used with no box is fine" person, but the point remains: people fall into this wonderful collectible Christmas trap every year, so demand will be seasonal but steady for the foreseeable.

Plus, this is easily the best WV set Lego has put out, so I intend, like many of you, to get my hands on as many as possible.

I literally missed the train on this one
was holding out for a discount when readily available on Amazon at RRP (missed a couple of $80 deals)...then price creeped $125 (bunch of locals had that available)...then $150...on the fence...now it's a solid $200 and I refuse to chase it further.  Now I am just waiting for the next winter train release.
 

Go for the 10173, it's a much better train.

1 hour ago, keymomachine said:

I have a good friend who just this year caught the winter village Lego bug and she asked me if I had any tips for getting the older sets. Now, she is a "used with no box is fine" person, but the point remains: people fall into this wonderful collectible Christmas trap every year, so demand will be seasonal but steady for the foreseeable.

Plus, this is easily the best WV set Lego has put out, so I intend, like many of you, to get my hands on as many as possible.

It's a good set, and the gwp's would indicate it should be a good bet, but I'm not sure its a great bet.  Needs to be at $300 to be that and really 2x buy-in is easily beat by other sets.  The only way I see this as "great" is if you can ever get it at discount or it pairs with a really good gwp.  And those scenarios aren't going to happen in volume.

14 hours ago, gmpirate said:

 Needs to be at $300 to be that and really 2x buy-in is easily beat by other sets.  

what is an example of a set that can be purchased currently (thru mainstream options) with a high likelihood of retirement this year and will do better than x2 upon retiring?

5 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

what is an example of a set that can be purchased currently (thru mainstream options) with a high likelihood of retirement this year and will do better than x2 upon retiring?

 

i've been collecting these any chance they show up.. it's a goldmine during holidays

1 hour ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

what is an example of a set that can be purchased currently (thru mainstream options) with a high likelihood of retirement this year and will do better than x2 upon retiring?

 

2 hours ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

what is an example of a set that can be purchased currently (thru mainstream options) with a high likelihood of retirement this year and will do better than x2 upon retiring?

There are many picks that never get discussed here (for the most part), but just take Zombie as a recent example.  It dried up and hit 3x buy-in before another big shipment hit.  Don't get me wrong, I'll buy GB every chance I get, but I don't expect to be able to buy hundreds of them and so I'm not concerned about having too many.  This past year has been great, but its not the norm.  Many sets appreciated that were stagnating before.  

Disclaimer:  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  You should consult with your investment advisor before making financial decisions.

19 minutes ago, gmpirate said:

There are many picks that never get discussed here (for the most part), but just take Zombie as a recent example.  It dried up and hit 3x buy-in before another big shipment hit.  Don't get me wrong, I'll buy GB every chance I get, but I don't expect to be able to buy hundreds of them and so I'm not concerned about having too many.  This past year has been great, but its not the norm.  Many sets appreciated that were stagnating before.  

Disclaimer:  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  You should consult with your investment advisor before making financial decisions.

cool; I think we're coming from different perspectives...I am not selling on Amazon so for me a $20 set selling for $60 is not moving the needle much for me, but a $99 set selling for $200 is.  I honestly don't know what to do w/ all the small sets I have...the LOE to sell exceeds my level of laziness atm...even at x3.

Edited January 29, 20214 yr by $20 on joe vs dan

29 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

cool; I think we're coming from different perspectives...I am not selling on Amazon so for me a $20 set selling for $60 is not moving the needle much for me, but a $99 set selling for $200 is.  I honestly don't know what to do w/ all the small sets I have...the LOE to sell exceeds my level of laziness atm...even at x3.

True, harder to move smaller sets if you are not on Amazon.  Shipping hurts.

20 hours ago, keymomachine said:

Plus, this is easily the best WV set Lego has put out, so I intend, like many of you, to get my hands on as many as possible.

Better than Santa?