Every time I log into my brickfolio I consistently see the large majority of my set values that have decreased are my upper end SW sets. Has the flooding of the market with multiple versions and reiterations finally caught up with the collector value of the originals? I tend to think that there will always be a market for a set if it has something that makes it unique. I am not a big flipper, I have no desire to buy 50 sets and flip each for a 10% profit. I like to collect just like a comic book collector. But I will usually buy two, one to build and enjoy and one to stay minty fresh. So I guess with that reasoning I will always just buy what I like and not really worry about resale. Although it is nice to not lose money....

Thoughts?

17 minutes ago, redcell said:

20lb sets??? What are you shipping?

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You may not know (lol  ) but well packed assembly square is about 16lbs.

1 hour ago, redcell said:

Not sure about you, but I find it far easier to make money these days and make more than I ever did in the past. I work harder because of scale, but put far less effort in overall primarily because I know what to avoid. Now. If I could combine what I know today with the market of yesterday, I'd be retired.

I am a long time full timer - Things are still plenty good, but not like it once was.

When I say better, I am saying apples to apples better - just because I might be making more $ now doesn't necessarily mean that things are better now.

1 hour ago, Brickshopper said:

20 lb sets ? Please elaborate

I am referring to the DS type sets, or ones whose boxed size (safely packed) comes close to the 20ld rate (regardless of the actual weight).

I am a long time full timer - Things are still plenty good, but not like it once was.
When I say better, I am saying apples to apples better - just because I might be making more $ now doesn't necessarily mean that things are better now.

I guess it depends on what yard stick you're using. I'm not a full timer, but I judge how good things are by how much money I'm making and I've been able to grow sales between 50% and 100% over the last 4 years so things are objectively better for me now than they were 5 years ago.

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You may not know (lol [emoji6] ) but well packed assembly square is about 16lbs.

Oh yeah...I guess I did know something about that.

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On 7/4/2018 at 4:02 PM, mizeur said:

 

So I'd pin the blame first on LEGO treating their IP like a commodity rather than a collectible

 

 

I don't think their primary goal is to make collectibles.

7 minutes ago, OCD_Chad said:

I don't think their primary goal is to make collectibles.

They're not trading porkbellies either. It's hyperbole. Taking it literally misses the point. 

DS seem so light compared to Milfs. 24x18x24 double wall in the original shipper is 39lbs.  Unfortunately that's light to some non Lego stuff I ship 

DS seem so light compared to Milfs. 24x18x24 double wall in the original shipper is 39lbs.  Unfortunately that's light to some non Lego stuff I ship 

The milf is certain to be lightly hoarded simply because of the weight and space it takes up.

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The milf is certain to be lightly hoarded simply because of the weight and space it takes up.

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So I shouldn’t fill my condo with them?
Dang it. My wife was right again!

So I shouldn’t fill my condo with them?
Dang it. My wife was right again!

To each his own...I'm sure whoever goes deep on them will do well, but what a pain to manage.

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4 hours ago, donbee said:

So I shouldn’t fill my condo with them?
Dang it. My wife was right again!

Not for another 3 years. Why the rush? Time and price will be on your side later down the line.

Your wife is always right in any case.

Not for another 3 years. Why the rush? Time and price will be on your side later down the line.
Your wife is always right in any case.

Yeah, that’s what she said...

On 7/4/2018 at 5:21 PM, KShine said:

Now I am no corporate merchandising expert - but I just don't see that many kids begging their moms to buy a toy based on that old guy that suckled on a sea cow.

Ive been thinking this may be the best post of the thread and really sums up the problem with Disney's Star Wars..

On 7/4/2018 at 8:28 PM, Ed Mack said:

There are many issues with the STAR WARS theme.  Here are a few...

• Remakes
• Overproduction of sets
• Too many STAR WARS sets to choose from (66 in 2017...17 in 2007)
• Too many movies that uninspire
• Too many sets that uninspire
• Kids into YouTube, IPhones/Pads, video games
• Knockoffs 

THIS +

On 7/4/2018 at 5:21 PM, KShine said:

Now I am no corporate merchandising expert - but I just don't see that many kids begging their moms to buy a toy based on that old guy that suckled on a sea cow.

 

Ive been thinking this may be the best post of the thread and really sums up the problem with Disney's Star Wars..

Really? I thought the Seacow suckling post was pretty good.
Not to mention my carefully crafted response.

@terrymc4677 I didn’t realize there was another MVP in our state besides Aaron Rodgers. Unlike Brett Favre, maybe someday you could give me a few pointers.

On 7/5/2018 at 2:42 AM, Val-E said:

True but Lego themselves noted in their annual results that theme sales suffer when there is no new movie out. Now, even the movies are not boosting sales.

We could compare with HP franchise where everything is backordered since day one and there is no film. That theme is strong on nostalgia and there has been a big enough gap since the last line for a whole new generation to grow up and want these sets. SW just seems to be like City nowadays - it has very few sets that inspire and most ae just lazy retreads.

What worries me is TLG don´t seem to learn and are committing a crime with the JW theme and the number of sets released on a level similar to Batman Movie. Sometimes less is more.

What will The LEGO Group's excuse be this year if sales slip once again?  Multiple STAR WARS and LEGO movies have been or will be released over the past year.  I really don't think it's going to be a pretty picture this year or the next few for LEGO.  The shift away from conventional toys and the closing of 1000+ Toys R' Us stores will have a major impact.   To me, losing so many LEGO showrooms has to hurt big time, regardless of the new LEGO movie.  Out of sight...out of mind.

16 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

What will The LEGO Group's excuse be this year if sales slip once again?  Multiple STAR WARS and LEGO movies have been or will be released over the past year.  I really don't think it's going to be a pretty picture this year or the next few for LEGO.  The shift away from conventional toys and the closing of 1000+ Toys R' Us stores will have a major impact.   To me, losing so many LEGO showrooms has to hurt big time, regardless of the new LEGO movie.  Out of sight...out of mind.

I think there'll be a record drop in sales this year. You've only got to look at recent "offers" to see the dross on shelves that still ain't shifting, even after heavy discounts. Technic Air Race Jet anybody? LEGO have brought this on themselves, grown too big, too fast. As for their creative and design skills, I'd rather not swear on here!

1 hour ago, TabbyBoy said:

I think there'll be a record drop in sales this year. You've only got to look at recent "offers" to see the dross on shelves that still ain't shifting, even after heavy discounts. Technic Air Race Jet anybody? LEGO have brought this on themselves, grown too big, too fast. As for their creative and design skills, I'd rather not swear on here!

They didn't get "too big too fast", their growth was over a decade. They simply peaked, and the market changed while they failed to adapt quickly enough. Once you reach the top, sooner or later there's only one way to go.

9 minutes ago, Migration said:

 Once you reach the top, sooner or later there's only one way to go.

43 minutes ago, Migration said:

They didn't get "too big too fast", their growth was over a decade. They simply peaked, and the market changed while they failed to adapt quickly enough. Once you reach the top, sooner or later there's only one way to go.

It only took the company 80 years to become the largest toy maker, but the end was very, very sudden. 

They didn't get "too big too fast", their growth was over a decade. They simply peaked, and the market changed while they failed to adapt quickly enough. Once you reach the top, sooner or later there's only one way to go.

And, when it comes to consumer products, the mere fact that your sales take a downturn is not necessarily the cataclysmic clusterf*** that some people here seemed inclined to view it as. If a company is publicly traded, downturns have far more ominous consequences. However, Lego is privately held and, as far as I recall, still quite profitable so a downturn in sales should not be that big of a deal unless management overextended its production, marketing, and sales capacity...and that would only become problematic if they had overextended the company in areas that represent fixed costs that can't be easily reigned in.

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It only took the company 80 years to become the largest toy maker, but the end was very, very sudden. 

He was in intensive care for 8 weeks.

He was in intensive care for 8 weeks.

"You using the whole fist doc?"

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3 hours ago, Migration said:

They didn't get "too big too fast", their growth was over a decade. They simply peaked, and the market changed while they failed to adapt quickly enough. Once you reach the top, sooner or later there's only one way to go.

Right, this is not the "end of LEGO" or anything close to that, but the days of printing money are over for now.  New movies will only generate so much money and/or interest.  They had a great run, but unlike other companies that can create new toys or products that could revolutionize an industry, LEGO makes ABS plastic bricks.  There is not much you can do with that but build more radical and complex sets,  If kids (and adults) become too lazy or impatient to undertake more complicated builds and want instantaneous gratification, then LEGO is in trouble long term.