As an American, all of the recent discussions of the Brexit vote have really been intriguing.  With the votes being tabulated as I write this, what do non-US LEGO investors/resellers think of the situation and its effects on the various LEGO secondary markets?

PS: I usually don't want to get too involved in politics, but this has definite effects on all of us.  Please be respectful of others and their opinions.  Thanks...

On June 24, 2016 at 1:11 AM, Val-E said:

There is a real possibility that other member states will follow the same path - who wants to be bankrolling Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus and Ireland with very little in return? There could be a new  union solely based on free trade but with less emphasis on cohesion in terms of common policies, taxation and economic policy.

The UK is certainly going to have to spend more on defence and border controls now.

On that note it was Germany that was bankrolling. UK was never fully into EU anyway. If I remember correctly Schenzen didn't apply. they had their own central bank and currency.

from non-UK resident's perspective this doesn't change squat. But this would be a big change from other business and trade perspective.

Btw, how will the tax havens in Ireland going to operate now. Especially all those networking and dot com giants spreadsheets.

 

 

Any stock market predictions for next week?

Any stock market predictions for next week?

I trade futures and options. I feel we see a minor drop Monday and slowly float back up. This will be a 2-3 day "event" in the market then it will normalize. I could be wrong but nothing crazy has happen YET from this. Was just the vote could take 1-2 years before fully leaving EU. Made good money Thursday night lol 2-3AM est.

Just now, Lego Templar said:

I trade futures and options. I feel we see a minor drop Monday and slowly float back up. This will be a 2-3 day "event" in the market then it will normalize. I could be wrong but nothing crazy has happen YET from this. Was just the vote could take 1-2 years before fully leaving EU. Made good money Thursday night lol 2-3AM est.

The markets work on expectations rather than hard evidence (same as Lego investors) so it all depends on whether they have already discounted the worst case scenario or there is more to come.

britains the first, what country is next?

1 minute ago, shortyz said:

britains the first, what country is next?

Canada.

Just now, Val-E said:

Canada.

Canada's a country? I thought it was a city, just like Belgium.

1 hour ago, Val-E said:

The markets work on expectations rather than hard evidence (same as Lego investors) so it all depends on whether they have already discounted the worst case scenario or there is more to come.

They haven't priced in the worst case. Just 12% drop in UK seems very modest. 

Even if eu puts in enough tariffs in place to account for current gbp decline uk's export to eu will be on decline. If I read it right 33% of UK's export is within eu region.  Economically they would be the one to lose more than anybody else.

Edited June 25, 20169 yr by gregpj

30 minutes ago, newbie77 said:

On that note it was Germany that was bankrolling. UK was never fully into EU anyway. If I remember correctly Schenzen didn't apply. they had their own central bank and currency.

from non-UK resident's perspective this doesn't change squat. But this would be a big change from other business and trade perspective.

Btw, how will the tax havens in Ireland going to operate now. Especially all those networking and dot com giants spreadsheets.

 

 

Schenzhen would never apply. Couldn't see China let them break away. 

 

Why would this affect 'tax havens' in Ireland?

21 minutes ago, shortyz said:

Britain the first, what country is next?

No Greenland was the first then Norway who semi joined then left the following year.

Also I cannot see the cascade I believe the Swexit may occur then that will be it. The Cezchs are having a referendum as they can it is mainly around celebrating democracy.

Edited June 25, 20169 yr by Will 4

5 minutes ago, Will 4 said:

No Greenland was the first then Norway who semi joined then left the following year.

Technically, it wasn't the EU yet when Greenland left. And Norway never joined so the UK is the first to leave.

On a more disturbing note: it seems Australia is leaving the AU and is becoming Stralia

Every time I hear Brexit, it reminds me of Exo Suit,

Every time I hear Brexit, it reminds me of Exo Suit,

OK. That's good but we need these kinds of posts on other Lego sites as well. Maybe attach a pic too...

1 hour ago, fossilrock said:

9-9-89 was an important point in world history.  You probably know being German what that day represents.  Let's hope that 6-23-16 isn't remembered in history books as the day that started the ball rolling in the opposite direction.

I don't know what that date represents but this was the German no. 1 hit single at the time:

 

2 hours ago, fossilrock said:

9-9-89 was an important point in world history.

You mean the 9th of November 1989?

8 minutes ago, Will 4 said:

You mean the 9th of November 1989?

Sorry, meant November 9th, 1989, not September 9th.  The day the wall came down, and the Iron Curtain began to collapse.  

And then this happened.

 

 

1 hour ago, newbie77 said:

They haven't priced in the worst case. Just 12% drop in UK seems very modest. 

Even if eu puts in enough tariffs in place to account for current gbp decline uk's export to eu will be on decline. If I read it right 33% of UK's export is within eu region.  Economically they would be the one to lose more than anybody else.

UK is a net importer.  German automotive industry sells around 400,000 vehicles in the UK annually.  Golf, Polo, A3, are all in the top 10 by volume.  There are already rumours that German and French political parties are talking about putting a free trade bi lateral pledge with the UK in their manifestos for the future elections.  Bypassing Brussels. 
 

You folks just can't help yourself can you? Ed is putting a lot of faith in this thread - more than I would have - so can you folks posting the inflammatory crap give it a rest? Maybe, just maybe, we can have an intelligent and adult conversation?

So just to be clear ..

- no name calling
- no insulting other members
- we don't need to label groups as smart or stupid to be smart or stupid
- we don't need to be bigoted to talk about it
- we should occasionally try to talk about what this all has to do with LEGO

12 minutes ago, feed said:

UK is a net importer.  German automotive industry sells around 400,000 vehicles in the UK annually.  Golf, Polo, A3, are all in the top 10 by volume.  There are already rumours that German and French political parties are talking about putting a free trade bi lateral pledge with the UK in their manifestos for the future elections.  Bypassing Brussels. 
 

Can they do this that easily? How much autonomy do the member states with respect to trade/tariffs/etc?
 

10 minutes ago, gregpj said:

Can they do this that easily? How much autonomy do the member states with respect to trade/tariffs/etc?
 

Germany and France are running things. So yes, they can!

For UK sellers, how much of your current sales are in EU? 

I myself have stopped buying items from North America/ Asia due to customs / import tax and find it a lot easier to buy items from Europe due to not customs / import taxes.

9 minutes ago, Mhd747 said:

For UK sellers, how much of your current sales are in EU? 

I myself have stopped buying items from North America/ Asia due to customs / import tax and find it a lot easier to buy items from Europe due to not customs / import taxes.

10%. ebay GSP. Mostly Spain/Italy, mostly parts not sets. Although for some reason i do sell a lot of castle figs and sets parts to Italy.  

1 hour ago, feed said:

10%. ebay GSP. Mostly Spain/Italy, mostly parts not sets. Although for some reason i do sell a lot of castle figs and sets parts to Italy.  

Yeah, tastes in Lego show on a small scale how different each country in Europe is. You can´t give Ninjago or Chima away here but in Germany they are nuts for it. Italians love their castles stuff but not so much Architecture and the Brits go in for Super Heroes and Technic. Star Wars seems the only denominator which may or may not translate to real life.

4 hours ago, fossilrock said:

True, it's definitely a promotional video, but it also contains a pretty strong message.  

What message? Just to be clear. The last 100 years, many of your fellow american countrymen gave their lives in different wars around the globe. What was the official reason? To bring democracy. Right? The referendum held in the UK on the 23rd of June 2016 is the perfect example of democracy. 

My grandfathers only brother died as a teenager in the battle of the bulge.  It definitely affected my grandfather quite a bit through his life and I was definitely handed down lessons on history about this era of our countries involvement during WW2..   My other grandfather was burned badly on a battleship in the pacific and was sent to Seattle to recover from third degree burns.  So, both my grandfathers bombarded me with the horrors of war that they got to see during WW2, which in my opinion the only reason the US was pulled into it was because the world was about to burn.  Definitely the US is not immune from political strife, and even teetering on the verge of collapse because we have our share of history too..  But, man, it seems like Europe and the Middle East tend to be some of the most violent unstable spots on the map.  Why?

Let's go back to the Roman Empire. Rome and the surrounding areas were very peaceful. But outside of that there was violence and instability. Why? Cause it is the perfect example of divide and conquer. If your enemies are busy fighting eachother, they won't fight you.

Back to the main point, this isolationist movement, and especially all the xenophobia that is propping up in areas around the world today is going to possibly embolden more fascist dictatorships in countries that once were seen as bastions of freedom, both economically and socially.  Here in the US, we are not immune either.  Granted, the way our political system is setup should keep a tyrant at bay, although some could say that Bush the 2nd pushed those boundaries, and I would tend to agree.   Our constitution is just a paper that can easily be torn apart by the sword.   The UK is definitely not immune to this happening either, and it's looking like they maybe very well heading down this very path..  So, this supposed freedom of leaving the EU comes with what?  I take it the first step is kicking out all "the undesirables" and giving economic power to those that supported the brexit?  Is it going to be as simple as that?  I highly doubt it. The worlds economy will not allow it to work that way.  So, it's going to be interesting how this plays out, but I don't look at it with much optimism, and this has more negative connotations attached to it, then any positive ones for most of the world.

It is not about xenophobia. Sure, there are always people who are xenophobic. But this was not a referendum about immigrant or refugee quota. This was a simple question. UK in or out of the EU. And the mayority voted to go out. You cannot simplify the reasons people have to just one or two. It are different people with different reasons. For example... british fishermen who want to fish in their own territorial waters again so they can make a living and feed their families.

The american war of independance from England. How dare you americans turn your backs on the King of England?

Everything turned out just fine after your declaration of independence.

9-9-89 was an important point in world history.  You probably know being German what that day represents.  Let's hope that 6-23-16 isn't remembered in history books as the day that started the ball rolling in the opposite direction.

First, I am not german. Second, by your reason, the east-german people made a mistake by tearing down the wall? Cause they had the courage to stand up against the communist Soviet-Union? And did it go better for them right away? Were there no east-germans who doubted? Many lost their jobs, etc. It took some time before things got better. But again... that comes with the territory. The price of regaining freedom.