So opinion on the estimated performance of this set seems to be a bit mixed. So far it will:

Go down because the market will be flooded.

Double in the first year

Not go anywhere for years

Me, I think it will be similar to 10193, as someone mentioned, it will go up immediately by 20-30%, then stall for a while while all the flippers dump their stock, then start a steady climb of maybe 10% pa.

So opinion on the estimated performance of this set seems to be a bit mixed. So far it will:

Go down because the market will be flooded.

Double in the first year

Not go anywhere for years

Me, I think it will be similar to 10193, as someone mentioned, it will go up immediately by 20-30%, then stall for a while while all the flippers dump their stock, then start a steady climb of maybe 10% pa.

I am thinking about the third choice. For the FB, not a lot of people were able to get the set at a significant discount to be able to sell it for under the retail price. The value of the set will probably be between $150-$200 for the first year at least because the market is flooded with them.

After seeing that the FB is now "Sold Out" on LEGO Shop at Home USA, I believe that the retirement of the set is finally coming. I see this because the next modular, the Parisian Restaurant will be coming out on January 1, 2014. IF the FB does retire it will be interesting to see what happens since it would be the third modular to retire after the Cafe Corner and the Green Grocer which had great returns.

4th

 

Corner Cafe

Market Street

Green Grocer

Fire Brigade

I am thinking about the third choice. For the FB, not a lot of people were able to get the set at a significant discount to be able to sell it for under the retail price. The value of the set will probably be between $150-$200 for the first year at least because the market is flooded with them.

there may be a chance that some of the hoarders have been selling down their inventory of FB over the past few months given that they are predicting the price will not rise as quickly. It a bit of game theory here, whereby everyone is trying to figure out the most optimal strategy taking into consideration what others will do.

Tons of people will try to dump once this thing retires officially. I only bought one, I think they will rise in value but damn you have to hold it so long...I feel like this was on the market for so long that it's going to take a long time for the people flipping for 30% profit to deplete their stock. Maybe I should have gotten more but I'm not going to sweat it.

Tons of people will try to dump once this thing retires officially. I only bought one, I think they will rise in value but damn you have to hold it so long...I feel like this was on the market for so long that it's going to take a long time for the people flipping for 30% profit to deplete their stock. Maybe I should have gotten more but I'm not going to sweat it.

I think you're completely right. There are so many people hoarding MISB copies of this set, that it will be very long before there are any profits that make selling worthwhile. You're looking at possibly 4+ years. I personally think it's a great build. But that's it. Investment is doubtful and money can probably be spent in better places than the TB, FB and DS. Buy a few SSD's instead!

Yep, I think the Mack's confirmed that out of all the Lego sets, this is the most widely held set in BP members portfolios

Anyone care to guess how many Grand Emporiums are being held currently? Heh.

I believe it will be easy $300.00 set....end of 2014. I got 4 for investment and one already on display...

Anyone care to guess how many Grand Emporiums are being held currently? Heh.

 

I have 9 which I got for about

Yep, I think the Mack's confirmed that out of all the Lego sets, this is the most widely held set in BP members portfolios

 

That's why I'm sticking to the 2 that I already have.  For all we know, it may also be the most widely held set in non-BP members' attics.  This also concerns me re the TB as that's as common as muck too.

I think you're completely right. There are so many people hoarding MISB copies of this set, that it will be very long before there are any profits that make selling worthwhile. You're looking at possibly 4+ years. I personally think it's a great build. But that's it. Investment is doubtful and money can probably be spent in better places than the TB, FB and DS. Buy a few SSD's instead!

 

When I first joined this site last year most people were talking about 5 year plans to make a good profit. Now a lot of people are saying this set (and others) are "failures" if you cannot double your money within a year. To me, that is not investment, that is speculation.

 

If the FB doubles by end of 2018 then this will be a better return than most savings and stock market accounts.

 

I have 9 which I got for about

okay so let me add a little sense too this "Fire Brigade" concern. I was shopping at the my local Flagship Lego store here in Socal on Black friday, and I saw a post placed on the shelve of the "Brigade" set. it read, "RETIRING SOON!" I was like wait a minute, let me confirm with one of the lego associates. and the associate said ,"Yes the Brigade set will be retiring soon. maybe by end of this year, if not next year 2014!". 

okay so let me add a little sense too this "Fire Brigade" concern. I was shopping at the my local Flagship Lego store here in Socal on Black friday, and I saw a post placed on the shelve of the "Brigade" set. it read, "RETIRING SOON!" I was like wait a minute, let me confirm with one of the lego associates. and the associate said ,"Yes the Brigade set will be retiring soon. maybe by end of this year, if not next year 2014!".

Yes, that associate really gave you some great insight ;)

While this is a great set, I don't see the point of buying anymore of these at all. It will grow, but there are  a lot of other sets that are going to be outperforming this one - unless you got it for just a stupid god price.

As I said, I have 2 FBs and passed on a 3rd at

Last sold on ebay was at $177 so i believe there is hope. lego interest is rising in asia which means there is another 3+ billion people being interested in this toy. How many of them are going to want to purchase older sets (2008-2012) that are out of production. if you are serious about making money on these sets that you see as high risk expand your audience and ship to asia. I just sold a complete 10179 with no box or sticker info for $2200. best of all they paid shipping.

TabbyBoy : as far as the Dolphin Cruiser (41015) is concerned, it says for USA and Canada : out of stock, will ship in 30 days. It's certainly not EOL yet.

Target just increased their price to $210...wtf

Target just increased their price to $210...wtf

 

lol

Target just increased their price to $210...wtf

Shows as $104.50 now and still currently unavailable online.

TabbyBoy : as far as the Dolphin Cruiser (41015) is concerned, it says for USA and Canada : out of stock, will ship in 30 days. It's certainly not EOL yet.

 

I didn't say it was EOL or certainly didn't mean it that way.  All I say is that it's very much in demand and you can clean up while the big retailers have no stock.  I sold 3 this week for

As I said, I have 2 FBs and passed on a 3rd at

I didn't say it was EOL or certainly didn't mean it that way.  All I say is that it's very much in demand and you can clean up while the big retailers have no stock.  I sold 3 this week for

The last 3 just sold for