At least in Europe it got the tag when it was practically already sold out. The US have to deal with advance warning from us AND their own advance warning - a lot of hoarding will be going on over the next few days and that won´t help residuals.

In one years time I wonder how many people will be saying "I had 7 years to buy that set and didn't pull the trigger, now I'm having to pay 1.5x MRSP..." or something similar.

IMO it will be quite a few.

8 minutes ago, Lego_Yoda said:

In one years time I wonder how many people will be saying "I had 7 years to buy that set and didn't pull the trigger, now I'm having to pay 1.5x MRSP..." or something similar.

IMO it will be quite a few.

I also think it will hit 1.5 x MSRP in a year. Then stay there.

1 hour ago, redcell said:

Why would you think that any new DS would be bigger AND cheaper? If it's bigger, it will be more expensive. If it's cheaper, it will be smaller. Regardless, it won't be the same.

IIRC, the original quote was something like "bigger & better." So, I believe OP means cheaper new version vs appreciated cost of 10188...

28 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

At least in Europe it got the tag when it was practically already sold out. The US have to deal with advance warning from us AND their own advance warning - a lot of hoarding will be going on over the next few days and that won´t help residuals.

I pose this question not specifically to you but to everybody. Why is it worse if resellers are able to buy the last copies of a set once it's decided it is retiring soon? Is that worse than if end users bought the remaining sets? It seems like the same end result.

If we eliminate the possibility that Lego is going to make more of these based on the retiring soon tag, then why shouldn't we want resellers to own every one of them that are remaining?

In fact it might be even better if fewer end users get the sets. It creates an even higher level of artificial scarcity.

Edited December 9, 201510 yr by mudcatsfan

8 minutes ago, mudcatsfan said:

I pose this question not specifically to you but to everybody. Why is it worse if resellers are able to buy the last copies of a set once it's decided it is retiring soon? Is that worse than if end users bought the remaining sets? It seems like the same end result.

If we eliminate the possibility that Lego is going to make more of these based on the retiring soon tag, then why shouldn't we want resellers to own every one of them that are remaining?

In fact it might be even better if fewer end users get the sets. It creates an even higher level of artificial scarcity.

Basically you are right. If all resellers would stop selling before retirement we would be in much better shape. Cause there are still many people who do not know you can buy from Lego directly. But the QFLL makes it more easy to them. And sells it to them on ebay or amazon. These people should fall asleep and only awake when the set is retired. 

It´s a valid point, however past evidence suggests that unexpected/unnanounced retirements perform better - see TH,HH, R2 than the predicted ones  (GE, FB, Advent Calendar). In part because you lose the big first kick from resellers scrambling to buy from other resellers. I won´t say any more as the rest is in the bubble thread.

Edited December 9, 201510 yr by valenciaeric

I think everyone is also forgetting the fact that we have 8 or 9 years of die hard new fans being born, probably in the 10's of millions. The market for this set from kids to serious collectors is going to keep growing at a fast rate and all the time the stocks going in the opposite direction. The only thing that does make me weary of this set is the big risk in shipping something like this and it getting damaged or "lost"

I think everyone is also forgetting the fact that we have 8 or 9 years of die hard new fans being born, probably in the 10's of millions. The market for this set from kids to serious collectors is going to keep growing at a fast rate and all the time the stocks going in the opposite direction. The only thing that does make me weary of this set is the big risk in shipping something like this and it getting damaged or "lost"

Good point...but keep in mind zombie apocalipse or SHTF, lol

38 minutes ago, wubbish said:

I think everyone is also forgetting the fact that we have 8 or 9 years of die hard new fans being born, probably in the 10's of millions. The market for this set from kids to serious collectors is going to keep growing at a fast rate and all the time the stocks going in the opposite direction. The only thing that does make me weary of this set is the big risk in shipping something like this and it getting damaged or "lost"

But kids nowadays don't watch the original trilogy. 

 

9 minutes ago, legone3 said:

But kids nowadays don't watch the original trilogy. 

 

WHAT?! Every good parent I know has their children watch the original trilogy!!

I could be wrong and I know I am a lopsided Star Wars nerd though not approaching the level of knowledge of the expert jaisonline or anywhere close (said genuinely)

but the level of disbelief I am seeing in the death star, the isd, the at at, and so many other things on this site is breath taking

yeah at at terrible perform it goes out of stock, could buy at toys r us for 85 bucks with discounts and it is almost 200 on amazon

the death star a few months ago went out of stock on amazon and went to 600 bucks almost instantly and hovered for a while, yet someday when it really is gone it may approach 1.5 x MSRP ?

either there are a lot of people putting down lego investing because they want sellers to go away or I live on another planet called Halfus Fullus while others live on Completus Emptius

Today is the day to celebrate the Death Star imo it deserves respect and admiration

(note this is just my personal feelings on the topic by all means debate, discuss and throw out my beliefs, that is what this site is for, I just want to note that I am genuinely taken aback by the posts)

Carry on with the bashing

Edited December 10, 201510 yr by trekgate502

I think everyone is also forgetting the fact that we have 8 or 9 years of die hard new fans being born, probably in the 10's of millions. The market for this set from kids to serious collectors is going to keep growing at a fast rate and all the time the stocks going in the opposite direction. The only thing that does make me weary of this set is the big risk in shipping something like this and it getting damaged or "lost"

But kids nowadays don't watch the original trilogy. 

 

I take it you're not a parent. My boys watched them first & want to watch them again.

27 minutes ago, pstebbing said:

I take it you're not a parent. My boys watched them first & want to watch them again.

My kids are 5 (boy) and 9 (girl).  They can't get enough... this set will do well just like ALL the others.  

10188 is a great set. I had two in my inventory. Now I have one. Sold the other during some eBay promo that helped it turn a $45 profit. I'll probably keep the other one for a good long time. If not as an investment, then out of nostalgia... the 10188 was born right about the same time as my son.

But I don't know if I'll be accumulating more, unless they come with a real discount. I just can't wait on the Death Star anymore. I enjoy this investing game more when there's action.  I enjoy the hunt. I enjoy the buying and selling, and making a quick buck.  I bought 4 Lego this morning for $200. Put them on Amazon, sold them all, and pocketed $300. I love that.  I just might go out tomorrow and do it again.  To make 50% profit on a DS, I'm going to have to see $750 - 775 on Amazon, or $725 on eBay.  Sure it will get there... but when?  How many hundreds of dollars in profit will I have missed while I wait? And of course, it's not just the DS... I'm feeling this way about most big exclusives anymore.  Too much money tied up for too long, for too little.  There is so much more money to be made playing "small ball".

Of course everyone has their investment strategy. I speaking mostly to new investors who are mulling over how many DS's they can get, and how fast.  If you don't have a 10188 yet, get one now. It is a MUST BUILD for every Lego / Star Wars fan. Maybe even get another as an investment.  But don't go out buying 4, or 8, or 20 unless you just have piles of cash sitting around and no idea what to do with it.

50 minutes ago, legone3 said:

But kids nowadays don't watch the original trilogy. 

 

Yeah kids hate the OT. They hate the Death Star, too. Also ice cream. Kids super hate ice cream. But not as much as they hate Christmas.

I bought my 1 from SAH 6 years ago, think they would remember if I bought another?? lol

Amazon was my friend for the others.  They double box so you get the factory case as well. 

Edited December 10, 201510 yr by conceptmachine

10 minutes ago, conceptmachine said:

I bought my 1 from SAH 6 years ago

That is awesome. How many baud was your modem back in that day?

He was able to afford the Death Star, so it must have been at least 14.4kbps

26 minutes ago, legone3 said:

He was able to afford the Death Star, so it must have been at least 14.4kbps

Surfing the web on Mosaic with a 9600 baud modem.

It will be very interesting to see how much (% wise) increase of BPers adding to their portfolio from now to next to impossible to find at retail.

I think you guys are overthinking this too much, you should get a couple 10188, and in the worst scenario , you can get your money back really easy.... I just bought a couple more to a total of 9.   In Mexico these fetch 650 at any given time as they are not available, so it was easy to pull the trigger for a couple more....

5 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

I think there probably is.  Just2Good obviously has some major connections within LEGO and has too much consistent insider information to be ignored.  The question is whether or not the new Death Star will have an huge effect on the 10188's appreciation.  Personally, I don't think it will because of the new movie characters and scenes.  If it is a set similar to the 10143 but finished, the 10188 could explode.  Even another play set could be much, much different.  The 10188 is a classic.  It will be missed.

Exactly. 

 

The new DS will have Kylo Ren, Rey, Poe and more. Will be cool as ****, but no old school characters probably.

No Luke, no Darth, no Imperial Guards. 

 

Im all in 10188

Does this all mean we aren't going to call it the 10188 Live Star anymore 

35 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

Does this all mean we aren't going to call it the 10188 Live Star anymore 

It will be called profitable star, or collapsed star aka black hole. Take your pick