Well said. I'm still concerned about LEGO damaging its brand, but I'm sure not as concerned as LEGO.

When it comes to investing and turnover, I've built a plan I"m comfortable with--holding for 1-2 years maximum and only buying if I can make 50-100% over MSRP (or my buy-in cost) in that time. So far, so good, but I've only been back at the table for about a year and a half. My strategy also involves buying sets of varying sizes and varying themes and at varying discounts. I'm moderately risk averse or risk tolerant, depending on your point of view. Again, it's my strategy and won't work for everyone, but not having any strategy is signing up for failure.

The Toy Shop doesn't fit my plan, at least this year, because I don't see those 50-100% gains. As a near-identical remake, it's future won't be as strong as SW. I could be wrong, but that's a moderate level of risk I'm willing to take. I'll let the flippers do the flipping for sub 50%. It's a fine strategy, just not mine.

 

as is my plan with a few exceptions judging by the past performance of select themes and sets. i wish i had held on to some of them a bit longer (10179s, 10189s, 10194s....)

Edited September 18, 201510 yr by jerryherb

The people who bought 10199 on the secondary market after EOL may wish to disagree!

And the people that miss out on Santa's Workshop might just wait in hopes of it being re-released, like this one...

And the people that miss out on Santa's Workshop might just wait in hopes of it being re-released, like this one...

Seems it will be hard to find a shop not selling 10245 this Xmas so hard to see who could miss out! In the future, it´s certainly true but the same could now be said for practically any set once there has been a precedent.

Seems it will be hard to find a shop not selling 10245 this Xmas so hard to see who could miss out! In the future, it´s certainly true but the same could now be said for practically any set once there has been a precedent.

I'm not talking about people missing 10245 this year. I'm talking about next year, etc & they find out that 10199 was re-released.

I'm not talking about people missing 10245 this year. I'm talking about next year, etc & they find out that 10199 was re-released.

Sentence 2 of my post is your friend then!

What about the theory that there was not time to release a new set ....

there are millions of new Lego buyers since this was last released

they missed out

from Lego view point is it that horrible that the option was release no set or re release this one ....

maybe that product manager thought better to please 3 million new winter village fans since the last time this set was released or to produce no set at all

If I had no resources no other time and wanted to please a great many people I would have done the same

best decision is debatable

real world reality decisions get in the way of trying to please everyone

maybe that product manager thought better to please 3 million new winter village fans

are these part of those 3 million winter village fans?? If so they just look cold not excited about this set...

Anyone who eats Skittles and syrup on spaghetti, I'm a fan of.

Anyone with a diet like that is looking to get Diabetes.

 

But it comes with a brick separator!

I'll probably buy two... one for us, one just for the risk. We are still missing the bakery so hopefully that one is re-released next year!!

These are different enough that I still want the original. The subtle differences kind of intrigue me. Of course, I'll still purchase the newest release.

Only one sold on eBay since it has been available (>$110). 29 listings available. Maybe it will pick up steam, but it definitely does not look like a set to quick flip before release, especially with the additional 10199 listings/

Can we expect these to be sold at Target this year? I would like to buy one for myself, but would rather purchase at Target, if possible. Thanks!

Can we expect these to be sold at Target this year? I would like to buy one for myself, but would rather purchase at Target, if possible. Thanks!

I would think so. SW was available last year.

Since some newer members or people who have missed out on some older sets don't grasp the ramifications of this set. Instead thinking, yes, I welcome a 10179 (MF), 10181 (ET), 10189 (TAJ) or 10196 (GC) 'cause I don't have one. There's absolutely nothing wrong in wanting a second chance to purchase them. Absolutely! But think for a minute what if Lego were to release a new GE or HH, TH or BTTF (or any other set that you have invested in) in a couple of years? If you think it doesn't or won't affect you, I think you're kidding yourself. Do you think the buyers of the sets you've decided to bank on or at the very least simply purchase & build will want to pay top dollar later for that set? I think you're sadly mistaken. Every buyer will have in the back of their mind "I'll just wait for the re-release." This release devalues every other set whether you think so or not. I'm not saying don't buy it. People will buy it. I will not be buying it.

Lego has a complete line of sets like these. It's called CITY

Lego has a complete line of sets like these. It's called CITY

which almost no one invests in

which almost no one invests in

I would say almost nocity  sets are worth investing in but the good ones do better than many other themes. Look at the 60022 thread and this time last year people were going all in and I think they are happy with the outcome.

City does not regurgitate same buildings and vehicles -- they are remade; modified, updated.  The 'update' to Winter Toy Shop is nominal--proverbial lipstick on a pig. 

 

City does not regurgitate same buildings and vehicles -- they are remade; modified, updated.  The 'update' to Winter Toy Shop is nominal--proverbial lipstick on a pig. 

 

Don´t give them ideas, the space shuttle was pretty much the same. The good thing about City is you know the remakes will come so you get out at a prudent time.

I never intended to start collecting this theme since I had missed so many of the early ones but the Toy Shop reissue changed that for me (I'm mostly a collector).  Today I started ordering the sets I had missed out on and now intend to collect the whole theme (and oddly I want both versions of the Toy Shop too).  Perhaps one small positive that could come from it is that people like me may want to purchase some of the other sets from the theme - but even that does not outweigh the negatives that have come from the set being rereleased.

I guess Lego wins, this is the #2 seller on LEGO Shop at Home...

I'm going to buy a Fairground Mixer and the Winter Toy Shop before Christmas. Obviously I want the more expensive FM during double VIP + Train but I'm concerned the WV set could be out of stock once the Gingerbread House promo is available. How much of a risk am I taking doing it that way? Should I just get the Toy Shop now and Mixer in November?

I'm going to buy a Fairground Mixer and the Winter Toy Shop before Christmas. Obviously I want the more expensive FM during double VIP + Train but I'm concerned the WV set could be out of stock once the Gingerbread House promo is available. How much of a risk am I taking doing it that way? Should I just get the Toy Shop now and Mixer in November?

I don't honestly think you have anything to worry about either way, but if I had to pick you'd be better off to buy 10249 now even though it's less VIP points.

Can we expect these to be sold at Target this year? I would like to buy one for myself, but would rather purchase at Target, if possible. Thanks!

I would think so. SW was available last year.

I hope it's in target soon. I'm starting to get itchy. I may just buy it at LEGO Shop at Home. I just want it for my personal use and with the backlash they received, who knows what the future holds for it.... whether it's out next year or just this. Then again, it's a top seller, so they may as well have it out next year too.

Might as well get it from LEGO Shop at Home with X2 vip and promo.