Starting a new thread from comments from others on the 12/19 daily deals thread about Lego having potentially problems meeting sales goals from multiple double VIP point days in December.

 

I am not saying whether the question on more double VIP sales because sales goals are not being met is true or not, but are you all really thinking so?

 

When you look at LEGO Shop at Home and Major Retailers almost every major exclusive that is on the brink of retirement is out of stock, many shelves in Toys R Us and other stores are wiped clean etc.  Just look at brickpickers lego stock tracking page.  I know that is not all current sets but it is wiped clean in many ways.  Minecraft is coming back but it was wiped clean for a while even with Lego ramping up production this year on it and even the Ghost is selling substantially over retail in some places.  The Advent Calendars and Santa's Workshop were wiped out.  Beyond them hitting the double vip again I have not seen signs of them panicking on their sales.  That all being stated I do find it interesting as there is almost no one who I talk to who is in the general public that one of the first things they discuss when we talk about Lego for the first time is how expensive it is.  I do think their lack of major discount and I am not talking about exclusives but in general not having substantial widely available sales so that customers could get the feeling of getting a deal (again not talking about us pouncing on things like Malibu Mansion where the hoarde devours it in 10 minutes) but lack of true overall promoted deep discount sales could lead to turning customers away if they feel they never can get a substantial discount and hurt their position long term.  NMM always talks about the exclusive minimum pricing agreement expiring soon.  Should be interesting the next few months to see where things go.

 

Keep in mind I am speaking of the normal Mom, Dad and Kid not members of Brickpicker.

 

Do many of you think Lego is disappointed with their sales?

 

It's a gamble trying to balance the more money for less sales or less money for more sales. The secondary market has proven that people will pay a premium for Lego but in smaller quantities. 

nah, I don't think LEGO is disappointed with their sales.  I think this was probably in the works awhile ago  This is probably planned for since they don't have that free empty box to fill afterxmas promo this year.

I don't think they are worried about their sales. Probably just want even more people to do their holiday shopping from Lego! It certainly sucks me in to the store when they have all these double VIP days!

They don't appear to be having a problem moving exclusives so I would say that policy has no impact on sales. What they aren't selling through is all the regular stuff that you can still get at a discount. But the reason they aren't selling through their own supply is because the majority of sets are still available on every other retailer's shelves. I'm pretty sure their sales are up so significantly this year over last that regardless of what happens the rest of the year, they will still have an increase. I expect more sales, including LEGO stores, after Christmas and early next year to get rid of all the old stuff. They have clearly produced more of mostly everything this year, so just because it isn't all gone, doesn't mean they haven't sold the hell out of what they have been producing.

An alternative theory -

 

Things are great.

 

LEGO Shop at Home told me when I said it is like a mass discontinuation of almost everything that "well there is a ton of great new product coming out next year".

 

Could it be they have almost emptied their warehouse of tons of old things like the exclusives and they are doing this because there is a bunch more middle sized & smaller sets they want to get rid of because they really are doing an Extinction Level Event on their old product lines.

 

This goes with Mos Eisley's thoughts and I typed them before reading his post but had not posted mine yet.

How can they be upset? They sold out of tons of stuff, and when there nothing left, no promos, we still go back and buy the scraps for an EXTRA 5%

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They don't appear to be having a problem moving exclusives so I would say that policy has no impact on sales. What they aren't selling through is all the regular stuff that you can still get at a discount. But the reason they aren't selling through their own supply is because the majority of sets are still available on every other retailer's shelves. I'm pretty sure their sales are up so significantly this year over last that regardless of what happens the rest of the year, they will still have an increase. I expect more sales, including LEGO stores, after Christmas and early next year to get rid of all the old stuff. They have clearly produced more of mostly everything this year, so just because it isn't all gone, doesn't mean they haven't sold the hell out of what they have been producing.

 

This makes a lot of sense - shelves aren't as empty in my area as they were last year. Sure, some of the hotter themes/items are long gone, or those that had solid discounts (your area/city/etc may differ obviously) but by and large you can still be shopping right now and get your hands on a decent selection of sets. I see the double VIP events as a way to bring traffic into B&M stores to essentially take business from rival retailers.

 

On the plus side, I am hopeful that boxing day/week and January clearance sales are better than last year (once again, in my area, yours may differ). Last year I had to scramble to get a few sets at 50% off, but if there had been larger quantities I would have gorged.

Here's my take on it...TLG (as well as many other retailers) have realized that they don't need to discount Lego sets a great deal to clear their shelves of older or unwanted product.  As a result, TLG has been experimenting over the past few years with different techniques to move product.  Whereas, in the past, TLG would have simply implemented a percentage discount, now they come up with nice freebies or 2x VIP days/weeks/months to drive sales and it seems to work pretty darn well.  How many more sets do you think they sold last March because of the Martian Manhunter figure and how much do you think that figure cost them to manufacture?  How many more sets do you think they sold during October and Black Friday weekend simply by giving VIP customers what amounts to 5% back on each purchase?  The cost of such sales initiatives is substantially less than the old line 25%-50% off sales and if they fail, TLG always has those techniques to blow the slow moving sets out completely.

 

I think that it is similar to what we've seen other retailers do.  I don't think that it's a coincidence that TRU has had fewer BOGO or spend $50 get $10 off sales in a year when they implemented a more generous points program and somewhat curbed their excessive MSRP price hikes. 

An alternative theory -

 

Things are great.

 

LEGO Shop at Home told me when I said it is like a mass discontinuation of almost everything that "well there is a ton of great new product coming out next year".

 

Could it be they have almost emptied their warehouse of tons of old things like the exclusives and they are doing this because there is a bunch more middle sized & smaller sets they want to get rid of because they really are doing an Extinction Level Event on their old product lines.

 

This goes with Mos Eisley's thoughts and I typed them before reading his post but had not posted mine yet.

If as many sets retire as we *think* are going to retire this year I second calling it the ELE.

 

I'm sure LEGO is happy with their sales this year. I am not r e adding much into these Double VIP weekends. I think it is just a test for them to see how much in increases spending versus just having the 2xVIP months every 6 months.

It would be hard for me to believe that TLG is hurting.  The investors alone have bought many more sets nowadays than in the past, so it is hard to believe sales figure is low.

From my FBA point of view:

- the velocity/volume in terms of number of orders was there

-most items didn't rise in price significantly

- last 7 days saw a significant drop in prices some of which don't make any sense IMHO

Conclusion:

Good season over all and while a decent profit was made, it didnt live up to the hype

Wal-Marts around here are much more decimated than I recall the past couple years, so if they clearance after Christmas it will go fast and shelves will be bare and ready for new product.

 

I'm concerned enough that I bought some extra City: Tow Trucks and Logging Trucks from Toysrus.com today, just so I'll have them.

 

Remember the times with there was large Star Wars sets, Black Pearls, and Dino Headquarters left over after the Christmas season?