We've recently seen an amazing wave of exclusives and high-end sets go out-of-stock and presumably retire.  While we don't yet know for certain which of these sets are truly retired and which may come back into stock after the Christmas rush, I think it would be fun to speculate which of these sets will see the fastest price appreciation to the 5x RRP level.

 

Personally I believe that 10224 Town Hall has the greatest potential to be the first of this pack to reach 5x.  Implied in that statement is that I'm convinced it is retired (other than a few oddball shipments showing up here and there) and won't be coming back.

 

My case for Town Hall is as follows:

1. The EOL was unexpected. Most thought that that GE would would exit from the stage with a lot of lead time before TH, so having it EOL almost simultaneously with GE left people unprepared. This means that many people who want it for their personal collection likely don't have one.
2. It is less stockpiled by speculators. Not only due to the suddenness of the EOL, but also due to the $200 RRP.
3. It is a modular so people wanting to "complete the set" will need to purchase it.

With a RRP of $200 Town Hall will need to reach $1000 to be at the 5x level. Any one want to guess how long it will take?

 

Anyone else care to speculate another recent exclusive that will be first to reach 5x?

 

EDIT: Ok, make the case for non-exclusives also if you prefer. But please explain **why** you think the set has great promise.

Edited December 2, 201411 yr by Spanky

1 hour ago, exciter1 said:

Monster Truck was doing great until Chodes R Us stepped in.

Yeah and unfortunately this wasn't the only set that the big time resellers torpedoed this year.  Ugh!

Few will reach 2x let alone 5x apart from a minifig or small set which is hardly worth the hassle. Go for actual amount of profit rather than multiple of RRP.  I'd rather sell a Pet Shop than a few Mixels - less work!

May I make a prediction? No UK £50+ set retired in late 2016 will reach 2x RRP by end of this year! If it does, it'll crash and burn soon after. Don't hold for too long, see what's happened to SW UCS.

5 hours ago, whoisbiggles said:

Down Under - Scooby Doo Mystery Mansion 75904. Local RRP AUD $120, currently selling on feeBay in the AUD $200 - $250 range.

 

Too right mate. This mansion is only going up up up.

Agreed on the Mystery Mansion. Fabulous set, similar to Hogwarts Castle & Monsters Fighters Castle but this in my view is a better design. Really iconic set in my view too. I think this will be a great set to have.

Pair it with the machine. Whole gang together and a great playset. 

17 hours ago, exciter1 said:

60113 - City: Rally Car

Definitely hope so - got 20 of these yesterday for 3 Euro a pop ...

Wall•E

3 minutes ago, brickolodon said:

Wall•E

I don't think anything will reach 5x RRP these days but, Wall•E could certainly be the first to reach 3x. That's £120 in the UK and anything above that is frankly silly.

On 13/01/2017 at 9:40 AM, red panda said:

Agreed on the Mystery Mansion. Fabulous set, similar to Hogwarts Castle & Monsters Fighters Castle but this in my view is a better design. Really iconic set in my view too. I think this will be a great set to have.

Great set but it's not flying out of the gate in the UK. If you bought during the Tesco 342 then you'll do OK. Otherwise it's minimal return after fees. Same with the Mystery Machine.

23 minutes ago, Scatterbug said:

Great set but it's not flying out of the gate in the UK. If you bought during the Tesco 342 then you'll do OK. 

You are kidding, 

Set that was in no way limited, readily available at £45-£50 during most of its life, moving at £100 2 months after retirement.  
 

18 minutes ago, feed said:

You are kidding, 

Set that was in no way limited, readily available at £45-£50 during most of its life, moving at £100 2 months after retirement.  
 

Average is around £90-95. Forgot this was a £70 set, rather than £80. Doing OK but not stellar as some were predicting.

23 minutes ago, Scatterbug said:

Average is around £90-95. Forgot this was a £70 set, rather than £80. Doing OK but not stellar as some were predicting.

Last one I sold on Saturday.  Buy in £46.99, ebay £1FVF, PP £5.40, shipping RM £6.05, Packaging £1, Sale £99.99.  That’s a £39.56 pre-tax profit on a £46.99 investment in under 12 months.  If you think the market is in a position to provide better returns than that on recently retired sets, you need to reset expectations and measuring from RRP these days is meaningless.   The average buy in I have on the 10 of these I own, is £46.27, and I very much doubt I have the lowest buy in around.  
 

41171 Emily Jones.

21 minutes ago, Val-E said:

41171 Emily Jones.

A baby dragon, who doesn't want a baby dragon

54 minutes ago, feed said:

Last one I sold on Saturday.  Buy in £46.99, ebay £1FVF, PP £5.40, shipping RM £6.05, Packaging £1, Sale £99.99.  That’s a £39.56 pre-tax profit on a £46.99 investment in under 12 months.  If you think the market is in a position to provide better returns than that on recently retired sets, you need to reset expectations and measuring from RRP these days is meaningless.   The average buy in I have on the 10 of these I own, is £46.27, and I very much doubt I have the lowest buy in around.  
 

Well, the thread title refers to RRP. But I hear what you are saying - hence my reference to the Tesco deal which was probably the best time to buy.

1 minute ago, Scatterbug said:

 hence my reference to the Tesco deal which was probably the best time to buy.

Those 3 for 2 sales Tesco had are going to be the ruin of us. While we got great deals out of them, we'll all be expecting a repeat and we'll spend the year turning up our noses at deals we'd previously have jumped on. What happens then if Tesco don't repeat them.

DDC is in the 3x range although retired earlier.

 

I'm betting on 853651 (yes I left out name on purpose) although it isn't retired.....yet

 

17 minutes ago, justapilgrim said:

DDC is in the 3x range although retired earlier.

 

I'm betting on 853651 (yes I left out name on purpose) although it isn't retired.....yet

 

5 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

 

It's a Run DMC meme off 

Jeff will hate this 

Edited February 20, 20178 yr by Sprocket77

35 minutes ago, Sprocket77 said:

 

It's a Run DMC meme off 

Jeff will hate this 

 

Hard to see any actual set doing 5x - the likely ones (RE, Arctic Plane, Logging truck) all seem to have stuck at 4xrrp for now.

If Mixels (or Bionicles count), one of those last short run sets will probably do it.

Edited February 20, 20178 yr by Val-E

1 hour ago, Sprocket77 said:

Those 3 for 2 sales Tesco had are going to be the ruin of us. While we got great deals out of them, we'll all be expecting a repeat and we'll spend the year turning up our noses at deals we'd previously have jumped on. What happens then if Tesco don't repeat them.

They're determined to get one over Argos, so i think there will be more this year, probably not as many.

The first 3 for 2 last year was over the April school holiday, so not much longer to wait and see.

60032 has hit 6 times RRP in Germany ...

Edited February 20, 20178 yr by TigerG

5 minutes ago, TigerG said:

60032 has hit 6 times RRP in Germany ...

And 20 times RRP in the UK! Nice of them to combine shipping.

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/like/311520456673?clk_rvr_id=1171067500732&vectorid=229508&lgeo=1&item=311520456673&rmvSB=true

 

Edited February 20, 20178 yr by Val-E

Only real sold prices count or our list will be endless and all is rosy and golden...