We've recently seen an amazing wave of exclusives and high-end sets go out-of-stock and presumably retire.  While we don't yet know for certain which of these sets are truly retired and which may come back into stock after the Christmas rush, I think it would be fun to speculate which of these sets will see the fastest price appreciation to the 5x RRP level.

 

Personally I believe that 10224 Town Hall has the greatest potential to be the first of this pack to reach 5x.  Implied in that statement is that I'm convinced it is retired (other than a few oddball shipments showing up here and there) and won't be coming back.

 

My case for Town Hall is as follows:

1. The EOL was unexpected. Most thought that that GE would would exit from the stage with a lot of lead time before TH, so having it EOL almost simultaneously with GE left people unprepared. This means that many people who want it for their personal collection likely don't have one.
2. It is less stockpiled by speculators. Not only due to the suddenness of the EOL, but also due to the $200 RRP.
3. It is a modular so people wanting to "complete the set" will need to purchase it.

With a RRP of $200 Town Hall will need to reach $1000 to be at the 5x level. Any one want to guess how long it will take?

 

Anyone else care to speculate another recent exclusive that will be first to reach 5x?

 

EDIT: Ok, make the case for non-exclusives also if you prefer. But please explain **why** you think the set has great promise.

Edited December 2, 201411 yr by Spanky

(...) it would be fun to speculate which of these sets will see the fastest price appreciation to the 5x RRP level.

Ouch... x5 RRP is very unlikely for any set from these days, because there are so much much more investors in 2014 compared to 2006...

 

So if we consider the recently retired sets (or "sold out" sets which may not come back) hmmm maybe the Research Institute I would say, for all the reasons we all know. And because it's way more easy and quick for a $20 set to reach $100 compared to a $200 set to reach $1000... WUT ??? It's back ? nevermind...

 

I can imagine the SSD getting the X3 RRP badge but that's it.

 

I don't see the the HH reach x5 RRP. I think it will top at x4 RRP (in about 5-6 years).

 

Maybe the TH... but it will take a lot of time, something like 7 or 8 years...

Edited December 3, 201411 yr by biniou

Based on people visiting my home. The Haunted House. It is the most popular set and even though the TH disapeared quickly, many people were 'stunned' that the HH went and didn't come back for halloween. It is part of a  series, but you don't need the rest of the series to display it.

If there is one set that will reach 5 x RRP it will be...

 

the Tumbler

 

Why?

 

1. Not easy to hoard

2. High pricepoint

3. Batman

4. Iconic and legendary vehicle

5. do I need to continue?

 

Furthermore I think TH and HH will do good. SSD (wish I bought more!) is already doing good.

 

Outsiders: ToO, R2-D2 and AA

 

 

Just my 0.02

Edited December 3, 201411 yr by Ciglione

I think TH has the best chance, according to Economics 101.

 

HH is an easy second - it's hard to predict how the demand stacks up vs. TH in the long run.

 

Unlikely:

 

SSD - it'll get there, but not nearly as fast as 10179

R2 - popular enough, but also fairly healthy supply-wise

ToO - if it's gone now, maybe. otherwise, nope

AA - might make it one day, never before the top of the list

Tumbler - um, not retired. If it was, then sure.

 

and the super dark-horses:

 

HE - It's a train. A train no one wants... until it's gone...

SOH - No one has any. See TH and HE comments.

 

And, on the completely outside chance that Santa's Workshop doesn't come back again, it rockets to the top of the list...

Edited December 3, 201411 yr by Grynn

Yeah, I suspect it would take so long for any big set to hit 5xRRP these days, that it might make more sense to sell at 3xRRP and reinvest.

But I'm still fairly new to this, so I don't know really. I'll probably keep one of my THs and SSDs indefinitely, just to have a stupidly expensive set in my collection, which would be nice.

If there is one set that will reach 5 x RRP it will be...

 

the Tumbler

 

Why?

 

1. Not easy to hoard

2. High pricepoint

3. Batman

4. Iconic and legendary vehicle

5. do I need to continue?

 

Yes but what if it's no more exclusive in 2015, and becomes widely available (toys'r us and co.) for the next 3 years ? That's my biggest fear about this set (ok, "fear" is not the right word...).

I think the Tumbler will do great, because irregardless of all the other stuff, bottom line is that it's just a fantastic Lego set.

Yes but what if it's no more exclusive in 2015, and becomes widely available (toys'r us and co.) for the next 3 years ? That's my biggest fear about this set (ok, "fear" is not the right word...).

 

It is all about timing... buy one every once in a while. Especially if there will be a sale. This will be a winner. Regardless its shelf life.

Remember that Ed said that tumbler will be the best

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I don't think any set of note I.e. Large set with high MRSP will hit 5x within any timescale that an investor should be holding it for. Better in my eyes to sell for 2x or 3x and have the cash to buy the next soon-to-retire sets, to sell them at 2x to 3x. I'd rather hit 2x in 3 cycles than keep the same money tied in for one cycle hoping for 5x. After all, it's about making the most money possible, right, not clinging on to a set forever. Plus I would say the more a set's value goes up, the worse the financial heartache if the box gets damaged, or it gets lost in transit

 

I don't think any set of note I.e. Large set with high MRSP will hit 5x within any timescale that an investor should be holding it for. Better in my eyes to sell for 2x or 3x and have the cash to buy the next soon-to-retire sets, to sell them at 2x to 3x. I'd rather hit 2x in 3 cycles than keep the same money tied in for one cycle hoping for 5x. After all, it's about making the most money possible, right, not clinging on to a set forever. Plus I would say the more a set's value goes up, the worse the financial heartache if the box gets damaged, or it gets lost in transit

 

Makes sense what you write. Also the market for such high-priced sets will be thin.

My view is that we should consider the price-time curve. This begins at time = 0, with the set at MRSP. While the set is in production, the only deviations should be a drop in price at a sale event, or a peak at an event such as Xmas. At EOL, the curve spikes upwards quite quickly, but is likely to begin to plateau in gradient after. The part of the curve I want to ride is either:

(a) the time between just before EOL and the point approaching plateau

OR

( the time between the last sale event (i.e. Item available at below MRSP), and the same plateau as above

Continuing to hold items once they are in the slower growth phase years beyond EOL isn't part of my strategy.

Perhaps I'm drifting off topic...

If there is one set that will reach 5 x RRP it will be...

 

the Tumbler

 

Why?

 

1. Not easy to hoard

2. High pricepoint

3. Batman

4. Iconic and legendary vehicle

5. do I need to continue?

 

Furthermore I think TH and HH will do good. SSD (wish I bought more!) is already doing good.

 

Outsiders: ToO, R2-D2 and AA

 

 

Just my 

What has been the lowest price you guys have seen on the tumbler? 

199.99 euro as of shop&home

Martian manhunter polybag

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Brickpicker mobile app

Mixels Series 1 ;)

Mixels Series 1

was waiting for you to mention these gems

Edited December 28, 201411 yr by brickcrazyhouse

I think

 

- Town Hall

- Research Institute

- DeLorean

- Fallingwater

- probably Sidney Opera (Architecture)

As a counter point, which sets have previously hit 5x RRP? Taj Mahal? UCS MF?

 

Mainly interested in high price exclusives as answers. I don't think there are enough to justify the theory that there are going to be many more.

 

As i've said before, waiting until 5x RRP seems an odd strategy to me anyway

As a counter point, which sets have previously hit 5x RRP? Taj Mahal? UCS MF?

 

Mainly interested in high price exclusives as answers. I don't think there are enough to justify the theory that there are going to be many more.

 

As i've said before, waiting until 5x RRP seems an odd strategy to me anyway

Many in the past. Going from pretty much all the Batman 1 sets to many exclusives to The Zombies.

I think in the modern day of Lego investing, 3x MSRP might be the new goal to achieve. I see only a couple of sets that have 5x potential and it could a while. Town Hall, RI (again) and , Haunted House (depending on the Scooby Doo version), If the Ghostbusters set retired early, I think that would hit $200 because of the popularity and upcoming movie.

I have 3 Town Hall (new, original sealed), is this a good investment for selling in one or two years?

5X MSRP is a lot, I think maybe a $20 architecture set has the highest potential to meet that.  But more likely it will be a set that flys under the radar.  The sets that are hoarded will never reach 5x MSRP.  There are way too many TH and FB out there for them to reach 5x MSRP anytime soon.  

I have 3 Town Hall (new, original sealed), is this a good investment for selling in one or two years?

 

No... these are bad investments... but I will take them of your hands for RRP. So you can invest the money in something better.

 

 

 

Just kidding...   these are one of the best investments of 2014 in my book. Keep them for a rainy day.

Darth Revan polybag

 

Assuming MSRP $5 (standard polybag price), it could be sold for $35 easy

The original poster Asked about sets. Plus the item needs to have had (or have a) retail price. Many promo sets and polybags are free with a specified purchase.