We've recently seen an amazing wave of exclusives and high-end sets go out-of-stock and presumably retire.  While we don't yet know for certain which of these sets are truly retired and which may come back into stock after the Christmas rush, I think it would be fun to speculate which of these sets will see the fastest price appreciation to the 5x RRP level.

 

Personally I believe that 10224 Town Hall has the greatest potential to be the first of this pack to reach 5x.  Implied in that statement is that I'm convinced it is retired (other than a few oddball shipments showing up here and there) and won't be coming back.

 

My case for Town Hall is as follows:

1. The EOL was unexpected. Most thought that that GE would would exit from the stage with a lot of lead time before TH, so having it EOL almost simultaneously with GE left people unprepared. This means that many people who want it for their personal collection likely don't have one.
2. It is less stockpiled by speculators. Not only due to the suddenness of the EOL, but also due to the $200 RRP.
3. It is a modular so people wanting to "complete the set" will need to purchase it.

With a RRP of $200 Town Hall will need to reach $1000 to be at the 5x level. Any one want to guess how long it will take?

 

Anyone else care to speculate another recent exclusive that will be first to reach 5x?

 

EDIT: Ok, make the case for non-exclusives also if you prefer. But please explain **why** you think the set has great promise.

Edited December 2, 201411 yr by Spanky

It only takes one drunken fat finger to click on buy-it now! I am guessing they added an extra 0 to the figure by mistake as other sellers have it for 12.99 GBP or thereabouts.

Another question could be which recently retired set will not reach RRP in 5 year?. I have dibs on 70146 Chima Phoenix Temple - City Police and Fire Stations are also strong candidates due to the remake-on-retirement policy.

The German football minifigures were over 5x for a while. coach and goalie still are I believe

Cant get rid of the soccer figs ^^ 100€ per set.

Only 3-4 bites per year atm 

31015  +- x3 for now

75048 - Star Wars: The Phantom (everything $80 and above FBA right now)
41060 - Princess: Sleeping Beauty's Royal Bedroom ($55 FBA)

Someone will pay $125 for Obi's Interceptor.  

21 minutes ago, Loghamel said:

Someone will pay $125 for Obi's Interceptor.  

They barely pay that for the UCS version.

2 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

They barely pay that for the UCS version.

True, but I'm guessing that Timmy hasn't seen 10215, so he won't be asking Gram to get it for Christmas.

Chima  ;-)

Something under £20 RRP. Elves 41171 (Emily Jones) or 41173 (School of Dragons)

On 2/20/2017 at 3:03 PM, Sprocket77 said:

Those 3 for 2 sales Tesco had are going to be the ruin of us. While we got great deals out of them, we'll all be expecting a repeat and we'll spend the year turning up our noses at deals we'd previously have jumped on. What happens then if Tesco don't repeat them.

Then we'll have to have an actual business strategy

5 minutes ago, Seal Cutter said:

Then we'll have to have an actual business strategy

Perhaps an easy one.  Target sets you believe in at a price you set.  At that price, buy until you have the number you want (or run out of storage).  Set aside a "holy $hit I can't miss this price" fund in case you get opportunities like last years 3 for 2.  I take Paypal.  You're welcome.

1 hour ago, Loghamel said:

Someone will pay $125 for Obi's Interceptor.  

Only if it´s FBA (Free-Basing AFOLs)

6 minutes ago, Sfcommando14 said:

Perhaps an easy one.  Target sets you believe in at a price you set.  At that price, buy until you have the number you want (or run out of storage).  Set aside a "holy $hit I can't miss this price" fund in case you get opportunities like last years 3 for 2.  I take Paypal.  You're welcome.

That sounds like overly complicated thing to do for making $1 profit per sale

Call me crazy but Ekimu from the last wave of Bionicles is now super rare in Europe and is up around 60 euros on Amazon for a 15 euro RRP.

I can see it reaching 5x RRP, all you need is one valued customer who wants it to complete their collection.

Edited March 19, 20178 yr by Val-E

Yep. Maybe next xmas. Ekimu and Tahu seem the best as growth of the last bionicle year. In US Tahu is still climbing, 3 x RRP, but also selling

15 hours ago, Val-E said:

Call me crazy but Ekimu from the last wave of Bionicles is now super rare in Europe and is up around 60 euros on Amazon for a 15 euro RRP.

I can see it reaching 5x RRP, all you need is one valued customer who wants it to complete their collection.

Asking Price on Amazon doesn't mean it really sells for that sort of money....last one sold yesterday on Ebay Germany for 15 Euros...

Absolutely, but the QFLL´s are now blown out. Problem is finding buyers.

On 2/27/2017 at 10:49 AM, Loghamel said:

Someone will pay $125 for Obi's Interceptor.  

If they do, i'll be kicking myself for parting out five of them. They are doing well so far

My wife and I went to Game Stop recently and found a treasure (10+) of Dimensions Green Arrow Polybags. The cashier said they'd been sitting there forever and wished they were gone , so we gladly obliged him . Posted straight to ebay, and sold all for more than $20 each! Went in later to see if we could snag some more. A different guy was there, and he first tried to act like he didn't know what we were talking about. Another girl then opens the draw to reveal they still had some left (to his obvious dismay), and then he says he can only get them with a purchase. We happily buy a couple of the 50% off Dimensions fun packs (ET for $6!) and get 2 more! Immediately posted and sold!

My wife and I went to Game Stop recently and found a treasure (10+) of Dimensions Green Arrow Polybags. The cashier said they'd been sitting there forever and wished they were gone , so we gladly obliged him [emoji4]. Posted straight to ebay, and sold all for more than $20 each! Went in later to see if we could snag some more. A different guy was there, and he first tried to act like he didn't know what we were talking about. Another girl then opens the draw to reveal they still had some left (to his obvious dismay), and then he says he can only get them with a purchase. We happily buy a couple of the 50% off Dimensions fun packs (ET for $6!) and get 2 more! Immediately posted and sold!

I love reading stories like this. Nice score!

You: Hey, do you guys carry free money?
Guy: I have $200 here, will that do?
You: I'll take it!
Guy: Thanks, come again.

How about a real set reaching 5x RRP, I mean something in a box with proper seals? All these tiny sets are just pocket money snd time consuming TBH.

No, I can't think of one either! Was Mars Rover (a PROPER exclusive) the last one do do this?

3x RRP makes more sense now in the new era as you'll still double your investment after fees and tax.

On 3/12/2014 at 4:46 PM, Ciglione said:

If there is one set that will reach 5 x RRP it will be...

the Tumbler

Why?

1. Not easy to hoard

2. High pricepoint

3. Batman

4. Iconic and legendary vehicle

5. do I need to continue?

Furthermore I think TH and HH will do good. SSD (wish I bought more!) is already doing good.

Outsiders: ToO, R2-D2 and AA

 

Gotta love revisiting some of the earlier predictions in this thread. Can´t believe I also said ToO!

Ninjago 70503 Golden Dragon with RRP 30 euros is currently selling for 3x RRP on Ebay and you won´t find a new one on any European Amazon for less than 150, so that would be a serious candidate for a proper, non exclusive set with a normal 2 year shelf life.

60060 logging truck, 75030 Falcon and 60064 Arctic Plane, 75920 Raptor Escape (exclusive) are in the same range.

Funny how some sets from turdy themes have made the cut above more obvious examples.

51 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

3x RRP makes more sense now in the new era as you'll still double your investment after fees and tax.

I think 1x RRP in 1 year after EOL makes more sense now, and 2x RRP after 3 years. For example Pet Shop, several months after EOL is buyable for RRP. Nonsens. The key for good investment is to buy with big discount and sell for RRP or little above...