We've recently seen an amazing wave of exclusives and high-end sets go out-of-stock and presumably retire.  While we don't yet know for certain which of these sets are truly retired and which may come back into stock after the Christmas rush, I think it would be fun to speculate which of these sets will see the fastest price appreciation to the 5x RRP level.

 

Personally I believe that 10224 Town Hall has the greatest potential to be the first of this pack to reach 5x.  Implied in that statement is that I'm convinced it is retired (other than a few oddball shipments showing up here and there) and won't be coming back.

 

My case for Town Hall is as follows:

1. The EOL was unexpected. Most thought that that GE would would exit from the stage with a lot of lead time before TH, so having it EOL almost simultaneously with GE left people unprepared. This means that many people who want it for their personal collection likely don't have one.
2. It is less stockpiled by speculators. Not only due to the suddenness of the EOL, but also due to the $200 RRP.
3. It is a modular so people wanting to "complete the set" will need to purchase it.

With a RRP of $200 Town Hall will need to reach $1000 to be at the 5x level. Any one want to guess how long it will take?

 

Anyone else care to speculate another recent exclusive that will be first to reach 5x?

 

EDIT: Ok, make the case for non-exclusives also if you prefer. But please explain **why** you think the set has great promise.

Edited December 2, 201411 yr by Spanky

8 minutes ago, tractorboy said:

I could maybe see someone pay 5xRRP for 75030 MF microfighter in the near future.

Yup, you´ve nailed it there. Gets my vote too.

On 1/3/2016 at 4:51 AM, tractorboy said:

I could maybe see someone pay 5xRRP for 75030 MF microfighter in the near future.

What would be a good price for someone to still get into that set for?  Seems they are all over $20 now.

Wouldn't 75920 raptor escape be a prime candidate? Already at 4xRRP on fba.

Won't be a boxed set, probably a figure. If I had to guess, Maleficent from Disney would be worth a shot. Fantastic figure, iconic character, short shelf life run. 

I'm going with Lincoln Memorial from the recent rashes of retirements.

39 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

I'm going with Lincoln Memorial from the recent rashes of retirements.

WOOHOO! Good thing I stocked up on three of those.

Also, when Disney series 2 gets released, probably later this year at a guess, let's see where a sealed box of series 1 goes/is. I think these will end up very sought after. I wouldn't be surprised if its similar to Team GB. One general rule I have noticed with collecting a wide array of stuff over the years, 'series 1 is king'.

1 hour ago, fossilrock said:

I'm going with Lincoln Memorial from the recent rashes of retirements.

I hope you're right as I went in H-U-G-E so that I can pair them with every White House I have which is at least 10 ;-)

It can't be 75111 Darth Vader as he's not retired yet! Shame as he's the most famous SciFi villain of them all.

12 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

I hope you're right as I went in H-U-G-E so that I can pair them with every White House I have which is at least 10 ;-)

It can't be 75111 Darth Vader as he's not retired yet! Shame as he's the most famous SciFi villain of them all.

There is a gazillion on bricklink for £20-25. What was the rrp on this? I like the building itself, but as a set it's a bit dull.

60113 - City: Rally Car

I would think a bionicle of some sort. 

MANY OF THE DISNEY FIGS have a great shot as well. 

Mixels-41579 Screeno   

Title needs a change:

"will there be even one set that reaches 5 x RRP"

or

"why recently retired sets don't reach 3x RRP anymore?"

18 minutes ago, Lordoflego said:

Title needs a change:

"will there be even one set that reaches 5 x RRP"

or

"why recently retired sets don't reach 3x RRP anymore?"

I am tempted to answer both, but I won´t.

43 minutes ago, BrickU said:

Mixels-41579 Screeno   

He wont be the only one of them.

2 hours ago, BrickU said:

Mixels-41579 Screeno   

41579 is Camsta, Screeno's 41578.

You know things are bad when people are getting excited about a Mixel appreciating in value.

9 minutes ago, Val-E said:

You know things are bad when people are getting excited about a Mixel appreciating in value.

I have one extra, I'm gonna be rich.

4 hours ago, exciter1 said:

60113 - City: Rally Car

I sure hope so. Kmart sent me 40 of these after your postings about the City Monster Truck blowing up on FBA.

Honestly, I don't think anything released last year will reach 5x RRP in the foreseeable future. With so many low buy ins, we'll be making money with 2x and most of us will settle for that. 

Edited January 12, 20179 yr by pete411

3 minutes ago, Brian Briggs said:

I have one extra, I'm gonna be rich.

Won´t beat this bad boy´s ROI, though.

2 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Won´t beat this bad boy´s ROI, though.

Does this elephant toy have a name? It doesn't look like Max Rebo.

8 minutes ago, Brian Briggs said:

Does this elephant toy have a name? It doesn't look like Max Rebo.

It´s Ty´s  Advanced Prototype.

4 hours ago, pete411 said:

I sure hope so. Kmart sent me 40 of these after your postings about the City Monster Truck blowing up on FBA.

Honestly, I don't think anything released last year will reach 5x RRP in the foreseeable future. With so many low buy ins, we'll be making money with 2x and most of us will settle for that. 

Monster Truck was doing great until Chodes R Us stepped in.

4 hours ago, Val-E said:

 

 

4 hours ago, Brian Briggs said:

Does this elephant toy have a name? It doesn't look like Max Rebo.

 

Peanut "The Royal Blue Elephant" 

4 hours ago, pete411 said:

Honestly, I don't think anything released last year will reach 5x RRP in the foreseeable future. With so many low buy ins, we'll be making money with 2x and most of us will settle for that. 

Lincoln Memorial would be nice 

Down Under - Scooby Doo Mystery Mansion 75904. Local RRP AUD $120, currently selling on feeBay in the AUD $200 - $250 range.