We've recently seen an amazing wave of exclusives and high-end sets go out-of-stock and presumably retire.  While we don't yet know for certain which of these sets are truly retired and which may come back into stock after the Christmas rush, I think it would be fun to speculate which of these sets will see the fastest price appreciation to the 5x RRP level.

 

Personally I believe that 10224 Town Hall has the greatest potential to be the first of this pack to reach 5x.  Implied in that statement is that I'm convinced it is retired (other than a few oddball shipments showing up here and there) and won't be coming back.

 

My case for Town Hall is as follows:

1. The EOL was unexpected. Most thought that that GE would would exit from the stage with a lot of lead time before TH, so having it EOL almost simultaneously with GE left people unprepared. This means that many people who want it for their personal collection likely don't have one.
2. It is less stockpiled by speculators. Not only due to the suddenness of the EOL, but also due to the $200 RRP.
3. It is a modular so people wanting to "complete the set" will need to purchase it.

With a RRP of $200 Town Hall will need to reach $1000 to be at the 5x level. Any one want to guess how long it will take?

 

Anyone else care to speculate another recent exclusive that will be first to reach 5x?

 

EDIT: Ok, make the case for non-exclusives also if you prefer. But please explain **why** you think the set has great promise.

Edited December 2, 201411 yr by Spanky

Agreed.  It's just from the way the data is parsed.

I would say the SSD will be the first. There is no questioning how impressionable it is. I expect to see this spike hard with the new movie release.

Not many sets ever get to 2k - TH is much more likely to reach 1k first.

​Mixel data is skewed at the moment, 99.999% sure. There is nothing magically more valuable about the first one in every color.

​what it is doing is picking up sets sold and registering them as the first value found (or number entered by the seller which happens to be the first one in the set).  generally on most ebay listings all 3 are listed but the first one gets tagged as the sale.  and mixels sell a lot as sets thus throwing off the numbers.

that being said main flain sales appear to be in the 5x range anyway.  but there are a lot of small sets like this that will likely hit 5x long before sets like TH and SSD do.  

#70503

Found one of these at wm for $15... something about golden ninja made me buy it...

How about:

http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=41500-1

14.5 times retail ain't bad for a 2014 release

There are at least 6 other sets from 2014 that have a current market value of over 5 times their retail price.  I don't think any of them have been mentioned so far.  Dem sleepers...

​

​Mixel data is skewed at the moment, 99.999% sure. There is nothing magically more valuable about the first one in every color.

​

Agreed.  It's just from the way the data is parsed.

​I sold Flain for more than $25 shipped on eBay (and I was not the only seller to do so)

I'd say Flain won (ie. hit 5x MSRP first)

 

​Yes! Love this set! Sets like this are becoming scarcer and scarcer. Unfortunately. 

​They are there, just have to pick them

How long are you all keeping the Rover? Think it'll go up any more?

​This one seems to have slowed down to a crawl, in the EU at least. I've listed a couple at just over €100 each time on ebay and no bites. Though I see two were sold recently for €114 plus shipping. Hoping to get rid of a few this xmas.

​Welcome to Brickpickers. Town Hall was $199.99, so where are you seeing it @ $1 K?

​Well, probably that price is a bit out of normal, but I ve found it:

http://le-go.ru/lego-town/lego-10224-town_hall.html

around 1000 usd -  in Russia, but in other shops in Russia it costs around 800 usd.

What is about Maersk ship, what are the chances?

Hi guys, I'm reading the forum and in this post some of you talked about the Volkswagen T1 Camper Van. I'm new in the LEGO business but I think I could say it is near retiring, right? Do you think it's a good investment? Thank you very much.

Hi guys, I'm reading the forum and in this post some of you talked about the Volkswagen T1 Camper Van. I'm new in the LEGO business but I think I could say it is near retiring, right? Do you think it's a good investment? Thank you very much. [emoji6]

I think it'll be a great investment, if it ever retires. This could be a "Tower Bridge" or "Death Star" lasting much longer than other "normal" releases...

What is about Maersk ship, what are the chances?

0.0%

On 6/2/2015 at 1:07 PM, botchy123 said:

#70503

Lowest price on ebay Uk £120 pounds now. Hmmm

On 2-6-2015 at 2:07 PM, botchy123 said:

#70503

 

8 minutes ago, botchy123 said:

Lowest price on ebay Uk £120 pounds now. Hmmm

Sold my last one a few days ago for 110 euro. What a winner this is.

Yep, had a gut feeling about that one, if you ever need one again give me a shout. We can trade for a Pet Shop if you want

DS

11 minutes ago, botchy123 said:

Yep, had a gut feeling about that one, if you ever need one again give me a shout. We can trade for a Pet Shop if you want

Me too. Well... to be honoust my wife did. 

I predict you will be getting a pm very soon.

9 minutes ago, MarxMarvelous said:

DS

Out of office assistant: Out buying some more DS. Your emails will not be forwarded.

10210 Imperial Flagship would hit 1K in 2016

The Tumbler. 

The short lifespan, high level of Dark Knight fans combined with the high level of Batman fans will make this one go out of the charts in no time. 

Mark my words

12 minutes ago, BP said:

The Tumbler. 

The short lifespan, high level of Dark Knight fans combined with the high level of Batman fans will make this one go out of the charts in no time. 

Mark my words

Your words are marked, don´t worry we´ll come back to this.

The set that WON'T be hitting 5x retail is PS. Everything else is mere speculation.

On 5-9-2015 at 3:50 AM, dcdfan said:

I think it'll be a great investment, if it ever retires. This could be a "Tower Bridge" or "Death Star" lasting much longer than other "normal" releases...

plse change 'could' by 'IS'

SSD will be the 5x MSRP set for me

5 hours ago, valenciaeric said:

Your words are marked, don´t worry we´ll come back to this.

Will you haunt me forever if it won't?

I could maybe see someone pay 5xRRP for 75030 MF microfighter in the near future.