Howdy folks,

 

I have been recently strapped for capital as many opportunities have come recently.

 

Keep the info below to myself or share?  Hmm.  It is not gospel and it is only what I intend to do as I try to get more structure in my acquisitions.

 

Here goes for some of the bigger sets.  Feel free to comment, add your own, etc

 

Past history in this series has shown me this is its second holiday season and if this line-up remains consistent it will the last time to buy this at retail.

 

10211 GE - Probably EOL

 

10214 Tower Bridge - still perplexed on this one.  Have 4 would like at least 10...it is out of any other sets range I am trying to relate it too...  Buy small amounts when 2x or 3x VIP points.

 

10218 Petshop - Wait till mid winter.  If GE is indeed retiring I cannot see this disappearing at the exact same time.

 

10220 T1 Camper - I have already started to accumulate with 2x VIP and poly bag.  Makes this set cheap.

 

not sure what set to relate this too either as far as EOL goes.

 

10223 Joust (have 9) but I am afraid this will be a slow riser just like 10193.  This is related to the previous castle theme just like MMV was when it was out.

 

10224 - OOS many places but I heard from a Lego employee the modular's will go in order, wink

 

10225 R2 - Start accumulate in late NOV

 

10226 Sopwith Camel Probably EOL

 

10227 B Wing EOL (EOL before R2)

 

10228 HH Probably EOL

 

10229 EOL

 

10230 EOL

 

10231 EOL

 

10232 Palace Cinema begin accumulating spring of 2016 unless something changes

 

10233 Horizon Express - Not sure on this one buy when discounts x2 VIP and polys are avail - treat this like a city train, Emerald Night or more like the Maersk train?

 

10234 Sydney Opera House  one of my sleeper sets, higher price per piece but there are also a lot of larger pieces in this set.  Look at how ordinary Taj Mahal was for types of pieces.  This set is easily recognizable. I believe it will do well.

 

Problem I have: will this follow Tower Bridge production time 4 years or more???

 

10235 Winter Village Market - Buy as many as I can before the end of NOV.  If I can pair with other discounts great.

 

I take 10229 as an example...I waited on this one till this fall having only 1 on hand until recently...if this follows 10229's timeline it should be an easy 60-80% gain by next Christmas.  That is well ahead on my normal annual appreciation rate.  I can live with that.

 

10236 Ewok Village have zero...no idea on this one.

 

10237 Tower or Orthanc I should probably be accumulating this now.  Have Zero.

 

10240 I will start buying this next May, hoping for a May 4th deal.

 

10241 Maersk 3x EEE will looking into it Feb- March 2015

 

10242 Mini Cooper - will this follow the T1 production timeline? If it does there is a lot time for this one.

 

10243 Parisian Restaurant One of my fav modulars (have 1) from a trade (thanks) will end up with 10+ on this one. No hurry though

 

10244 Mixer, not a lot of love for this set, had it included the Power Functions I would like it more...but I will be buying this one early summer 2015.  Impressive when built, nice engineering when it is stored away.  SLEEPER.

 

10245 Can't say enough about this set...buy now, buy more next year buy anytime there is any give away. (JMO)

 

If it follows the "pattern" it may vanish late winter after Christmas but return late summer or next fall.

 

Anyway other than other non-10xxx sets this has been fun to think about and post.  Take it leave it, I am no authority on the matter.  This is how I feel about the sets today.

 

 

 

This month I will surpass 600 sets in all. Here are some photos...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

great collection.

 

i am sure you have shelves hidden from these

 

just like fellow BP'ers has suggested some shelves or better stacking will help you keep those boxes in mint condition.

 

we all learn from each other so i hope that posting picture did get you some good suggestions.

 

This month I will surpass 600 sets in all. Here are some photos...

 

 

 

 

 

Only one fire brigade?

 

I must say that the multitude of Mini-Mazers out there is concerning.

 

So many buyers, buying such high quantities of just a few select sets that don't really sell in very high quantities sounds like trouble.

xmen set with sentinel, wolverine storm and magneto mini figs

I think the sentinel is underwhelming, but could be a while for another storm and magneto

I must say that the multitude of Mini-Mazers out there is concerning.

 

So many buyers, buying such high quantities of just a few select sets that don't really sell in very high quantities sounds like trouble.

 

Indeed.  It's always good to keep in mind the disclaimer "past performance does not guarantee future success."  The unfortunate fact that many here will find out in the not too distant future is that the performance of sets currently on the secondary market post-EOL does not provide any indicator of what the currently-available sets will do post-EOL.  Although the secondary market demand for Lego sets is robust, it is not bottomless and prices tend to stagnate when a set is held in large quantities by a large number of sellers.  Everyone who is dreaming of future returns on par with the current performance of exclusives that have already retired should expect much slimmer margins in the future simply because there is a substantially greater amount of capital being allocated to modulars than there has been in the past.    

Edited October 11, 201411 yr by Pacific493

Indeed.  It's always good to keep in mind the disclaimer "past performance does not guarantee future success."  The unfortunate fact that many here will find out in the not too distant future is that the performance of sets currently on the secondary market post-EOL does not provide any indicator of what the currently-available sets will do post-EOL.  Although the secondary market demand for Lego sets is robust, it is not bottomless and prices tend to stagnate when a set is held in large quantities by a large number of sellers.  Everyone who is dreaming of future returns on par with the current performance of FB or GE should expect much slimmer margins in the future simply because there is a substantially greater amount of capital being allocated to modulars than there has been in the past.    

well articulated.

I will only accumulate 30-50 of the 10 sets I choose annually. Thus, I will never have 100 of a single set, only a maximum of 50.  As I ramp up 300-500 sets annually, I will at some point come into the cycle of selling those that have hit the targeted ROI. I think I can pretty easily sustain the sale of 300-500 sets annually.

 

I'm curious whether you have experience selling sets at the price points that you are targeting. 

^he did say he's aiming for 30% annual returns, I think that's pretty realistic. I do certainly agree with a lot of your points you've expressed though...downward margins will continue!

If he's shooting for 30% margins, that's a somewhat realistic goal.  However, I question the wisdom in laying out one's strategy so clearly on this website.  I know that there are others that do so, but all such posts are based on the assumption that the secondary market is deep enough to absorb all of the sets that will be stockpiled by those who copy that strategy while leaving enough room for the original poster to continue executing on the strategy.  Personally, I wouldn't be (and am not) so upfront about what I'm doing because, although it is certainly neighborly and considerate, it does little but foster additional competition, which ultimately undermines the viability of the strategy.  

it might be possible to get 30% annual return under certain circumstances for some of the sets "for smaller numbers" (star has to align perfectly for this) but i doubt it can be doable in "large number of same set i.e. 50".

 

if you look @ the sales of FB (as an example) http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=10197-1

from feb till august its average of 90 sets/month only. i can pretty much say without doubt that recent numbers are going to pull in this average to be lower.

 

even having 50sets of FB that's like approx. 1/24 of annual sales @ ebay i.e. you are controlling more than 5% of the sales of an item in a year.  its going to be hard to get 30% annual return under those conditions. to elaborate more

 

FB was introduced in 2009; bulk of its return came after/near retirement.

 

below would be what one have to make for their investment to acquire 30% annual return.

 

Jan 2009: $149.99

Jan 2010: $149.99 $194.99(jan 2009 investment)

Jan 2011: $149.99 $194.99(jan 2010 investment) $253.48(jan 2009 investment)

Jan 2012: $149.99 $194.99(jan 2011 investment) $253.48(jan 2010 investment) $329.53(jan 2009 investment)

Jan 2013: $149.99 $194.99(jan 2012 investment) $253.48(jan 2011 investment) $329.53(jan 2010 investment) $428.39(jan 2009 investment)

Jan 2014: $239.99 $194.99(jan 2013 investment) $253.48(jan 2012 investment) $329.53(jan 2011 investment) $428.39(jan 2010 investment) $556.90(jan 2009 investment)

 

now to net those numbers i have mentioned

for $194.99 you have to sell for $258

for $253.48 you have to sell for $321

for $329.53 you have to sell for $410

for $428.39 you have to sell for $527

for $556.90 you have to sell for $678

 

as demonstrated above there is very narrow window when its possible and how. but again I DONOT THINK it can be done for large quantity.

Edited October 11, 201411 yr by newbie77

I'm curious whether you have experience selling sets at the price points that you are targeting. 

 

Yes, this year's sales have exceeding my expectations.

Yes, this year's sales have exceeding my expectations.

if you don't mind disclosing, how many sales have you completed in terms of exclusives. and namely,.

 

Haunted House

Fire Brigade

Town Hall

Grand Emporium

SSD

Edited October 11, 201411 yr by newbie77

I have over 600 sets but, they're all in outer boxes from SaH or Amazon and nothing special to look at. However a colleague bought 99x HH before the limit was reduced to 5 and he has no other set - way to go!

My buying schedule up until now has been a disaster. If I could start again, I'd just buy one each of HH, PS, 3E, SC, VWC, TB every month from alternating sources.

I'm hoping that my big sets will raise enough in time for me to donate my 300+ worthless CITY sets to local schools and charities. I'd rather give them away than face a tight-arsed demanding buyer who expects a perfect diamonte gold plated box over a crap CITY set.

I have over 600 sets but, they're all in outer boxes from SaH or Amazon and nothing special to look at. However a colleague bought 99x HH before the limit was reduced to 5 and he has no other set - way to go!

My buying schedule up until now has been a disaster. If I could start again, I'd just buy one each of HH, PS, 3E, SC, VWC, TB every month from alternating sources.

I'm hoping that my big sets will raise enough in time for me to donate my 300+ worthless CITY sets to local schools and charities. I'd rather give them away than face a tight-arsed demanding buyer who expects a perfect diamonte gold plated box over a crap CITY set.

He chose the right set to buy 99 of. That's awesome.

My buying schedule up until now has been a disaster. If I could start again, I'd just buy one each of HH, PS, 3E, SC, VWC, TB every month from alternating sources.

 

 

So start over!

 

To a degree, that's what I'm doing.  I've been doing this for nearly two years now.  I've learned a lot, and I've got a *lot* more to learn.  But I made similar mistakes as you - buying sets that just will never appreciate to anywhere that I'd really rather be.  I've got a garage full of sets that are soaking up my money right now. 

 

I am gradually shift my focus from buying worthless city sets at 30% off (because they are on sale!), and really starting to understand where the better returns are in this game.  I don't think I'm going to "lose" money in this game; at least, not take a soaking.  I'm diversified enough to not have a bunch of money sunk into money losers.  That doesn't mean I may do any better than break even, but I'm not going to take a soaking.

 

So, I am gradually trying to liquidate a good portion of my investment, and get rid of the duds.  Free up some cash, so I can start investing much more wisely.  I hope a year from now, I will be one of those that will never feel the pain of a sudden "in/out of stock," because I'll be amassing what I need long before I have to worry about that.

 

Don't worry, you'll get there.  No need to donate.  Put the time in to selling the stuff, get some capital back, and shift your focus.