Mack.

Why are you scaring these folks on a nice Sunday Afternoon.

Bored I guess.  

That seems a rather pessimistic view of things.

I can't believe TLG would put so many ressource in a Tumbler to retire it shortly afterwards.

The forst 2 years are rather "safe" - predicting retirement afterwards has become more of an art/work indeed.

Working capital management is nonetheless important. If not a lot of pple on this forum agree with that - fine.

Obviously I agree that nobody wants to miss out on the next best EoL exclusive

To repeat my reply to legomaniacc, nobody has indicated that the tumbler is retiring early, just at this time very few people would have stock piled any do to it not being available at LEGO Shop at Home. Cross's question was what set to go "Ed" on, and Mack made hints towards the Tumbler. Nothing to do with early retirement, just a suggestion on a strong investment.

I'm new to this so I don't have a set investing strategy... yet. Originally my game plan was what you had posted because it really makes sense but this has already changed a few times with what I've seen and read on here in the last six months. I do believe the big boys in this game that don't adapt and overcome to what looks to be TLGs new plan of action, will take some hits down the road and be either forced to change strategies or be pushed out.

As for being pessimistic, not at all. I look at this lego investing as a challenge. I don't dismiss any information anyone is willing to share. I decide if it's relevant to me and my goals and make the best educated decision I can.

Mack.

Why are you scaring these folks on a nice Sunday Afternoon.

"these good folks" ;-)

 

 

For all you guys that still think the "Death Star" is a Flop and will never buy one, well alot of you guys thought the same about the SSD,HH,TH and look over the last few months most have been panic buying, and take my word the same will happen with the Death Star, I don't understand why people think the set will be big bucks, 3 new movies coming out, and there will be millions of new Star War Lego fans out there. So do yourself a favor and get a few. But I am sure most will wait til the end.   Ed

I agree. I have 2 and that's enough for me. Too expansive and takes up too much space, without any clue as for when it will be retiring.

But just to play it safe 2 is a nice number for a medium investor like me...

when the panic starts I pretty sure I could get 2-3 more if I wanted to.

I'm not saying that's what they're doing, I'm saying that's what I would do. Every year, investors buy more and more Death Stars because hey, it has to retire this year, right? But it's also a diabolical way to handcuff resellers who tie up money in something that stays on shelves for a long time, because that's $400 fewer dollars that they have to buy other sets that will retire. For every DS collecting dust, there would be two Tumblers still in stores. (Obviously this assumes limited investing capital.) Plus, many smaller resellers would get discouraged and quit.

 

Again, I really don't think that's what Lego is doing and I've got plenty of DSs, but as an evil mastermind out to stick it to resellers, that's what I'd do. Perpetually keeping the DS on the brink of retirement would be a strong play in the chess game vs. investors. I'd be removing money from the investor economy $400 at a time. Consider it an investment tax or the "rake" in a poker game.

Maybe we get back on topic and speculate what "Sold out" at LEGO Shop at Home EU means to R2s future. Shall we?

Maybe we get back on topic and speculate what "Sold out" at LEGO Shop at Home EU means to R2s future. Shall we?

Yes I agree... probably it means a massive panic and lots of people ending up spending what little money they have left after the last couple of panics... and probably even right so!!!

 

:help: :help: :help: :help:

I guess nobody is panicing here because everybody just started to buy what they can get?

@ Locutus:

 

Did you already acquire your target amount of R2s?

Mack.

Why are you scaring these folks on a nice Sunday Afternoon.

He wields the Truth but conveys it in a way that deceives the mere mortal minds and only those who have the clarity of vision can benefit from his cryptic advice. Only despair awaits those who fail to see through his dark words.

 

Did you notice his avatar?

Edited November 9, 201411 yr by inversion

He wields the Truth but conveys it in a way that deceives the mere mortal minds and only those who have the clarity of vision can benefit from his cryptic advice. Only despair awaits those who fail to see through his dark words.

 

Did you notice his avatar?

True, but I am kind to animals.  

True, but I am kind to animals.  

OMG Pet Shop is retiring!

Just checked at Lego LEGO Shop at Home, r2d2 sold out. This year is getting better and better towards the end!

Just checked at Lego LEGO Shop at Home, r2d2 sold out. This year is getting better and better towards the end!

Just checked at Lego LEGO Shop at Home, r2d2 sold out. This year is getting better and better towards the end!

OOS at US LEGO Shop at Home too. Expected ship date 16 Nov.

So is the MF - does that mean it is retiring soon too? No way are these models going before the next films so no need to panic buy.

R2 is a great set, but I personally can't imagine TLG to put it into retirement a year Before the new Star Wars movie comes out.  That would be the dumbest business move of all time.

The head executives at Lego should know that once the new movie comes out, the R2-D2 set is gonna sell like hotcakes.  Huge moneymaker for them.  Why would they pull it right before?   If I was in charge at Lego, I'd keep R2 on the shelves for atleast the first new movie.  Maybe even all 3 movies.

Infact, once the announcement of the new Star Wars films came out, I bet it had an impact on changing their plans of retiring the Death Star set.  That's why they're keeping the Death Star still around, because of the new movie coming out next Christmas.  Never underestimate Star Wars hype.  It's a juggernaut.  You would imagine the people at Lego are excited to ride the wave.

 

This is why I don't feel strongly enough in investing in R2's anytime soon.  TLG controls when they want to retire a set or not.  Sure they usually stick to a general retirement plan.  But when something new pops up like the announcement of a new movie(Star Wars, Batman, etc), they can change their plans because there is no set-in-stone retirement schedule.  They can make more R2's if they need to.

So is the MF - does that mean it is retiring soon too? No way are these models going before the next films so no need to panic buy.

 

I would bet on EOL of both of them. 

@ Locutus:

 

Did you already acquire your target amount of R2s?

Nope... to be honest I didn't have a target amount

I actually was hoping for next year and may the fourth be with you ^.^

 

Also I thought that this one will probably go OOS in the U.S. "long" before it does in Europe...

 

I bought 4 though just to be sure and if I can get one now I'll probably do that.

Edited November 9, 201411 yr by Locutus001

There's no way R2 is retiring yet. My guess is that sales picked up due to the new film.

I bet you they stick around till at least 1st quarter 2015. COme on guys, it

So is the MF - does that mean it is retiring soon too? No way are these models going before the next films so no need to panic buy.

 

Why not? Slave 1 is released January 1, so it makes sense for 1 of the Star Wars UCS models to go to make room for this. Otherwise we would have 3 Star Wars UCS models running at the same time, which I don't think has ever happened before.

I really think it is retired.

 He start that dance more than 1 month ago as the others that were retired.

 And 7965 it's sold out too.

Cos it

I bet you they stick around till at least 1st quarter 2015. COme on guys, it

Why not? Slave 1 is released January 1, so it makes sense for 1 of the Star Wars UCS models to go to make room for this. Otherwise we would have 3 Star Wars UCS models running at the same time, which I don't think has ever happened before.

 

Oh boy...if you put your ear down to the ground you can hear the stampede...it's still at a distance but it's moving faster post by post.