I avoid the smaller super hero sets, mostly because I know nothing about the characters or the movies. But I think the UCS sets will be solid.

The tumbler is in a class of its own as far as SH (super hero) sets go.  It will also be helped by a short life span (assuming it really is done in the US).  The only question is how many of these are hoarded.  It has yet to sell out, which may mean lots of inventory, investor fatigue, or a combination of both.

given the hoard I would not expect many sets to jump like TH and HH did, many investors will be happy with 20-50% returns within a year.  but there is not much risk in tumblers long term. and Although they may likely be another UCS batmobile, there will likely never be another tumbler.

Tumbler no longer in the top 25 best sellers in the US, France, Italy or Spain.

Similarly priced and limit 1 Red 5 is in almost all lists.........

Edited December 23, 20159 yr by valenciaeric

29 minutes ago, allen9917 said:

Threre is definitely SH fatigue in the market, both marvel and dc. Which predicted SH winner since 2014 is actually doing well right now? Need the new batman movie to be epic to boost the demand.

Super Heroes hasn't quite reached City theme levels, but it's getting close.  From an investment standpoint, it might be more impacted than Friends at the moment.

14 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

Tumbler no longer in the top 25 best sellers in the US, France, Italy or Spain.

Similarly priced and limit 1 Red 5 is in almost all lists.........

Star Wars bump.

5 minutes ago, force392 said:

Star Wars bump.

Coupled with limit of 1. 

What is SH?

Simpson's House. Unless we're in a different theme then it can be anything else. Similar to SW, which switches constantly between Santa's Workshop & Star Wars...

It has been extremely difficult  for me to come by mint Tumbler boxes.  Virtually 100% of ALL LEGO boxes from target are now being stickered with a 1x4" UPS code sticker when sent to me.  This is tumblers or cinderella's bedroom  stickers placed intentionally squarely in the middle of the front of the box.  very annoying.  maybe they don't want to ban me and are trying to get me to stop ordering.  for tumblers i have been getting out the hair dryer but even some of these are damaged.  Amazon goes overboard with packing material and then the box gets a dent.  i have 1 on the way from LEGO Shop at Home with the complimentary christmas ornament shaped dent i'm sure.

Edited December 23, 20159 yr by cladner

It has been extremely difficult  for me to come by mint Tumbler boxes.  Virtually 100% of ALL LEGO boxes from target are now being stickered with a 1x4" UPS code sticker when sent to me.  This is tumblers or cinderella's bedroom  stickers placed intentionally squarely in the middle of the front of the box.  very annoying.  maybe they don't want to ban me and are trying to get me to stop ordering.  for tumblers i have been getting out the hair dryer but even some of these are damaged.  Amazon goes overboard with packing material and then the box gets a dent.  i have 1 on the way from LEGO Shop at Home with the complimentary christmas ornament shaped dent i'm sure.

Walmart is using these stickers on way too many items also...

30 minutes ago, dcdfan said:

 

Simpson's House. Unless we're in a different theme then it can be anything else. Similar to SW, which switches constantly between Santa's Workshop & Star Wars...

As you can see, I didn't abbreviate.

8 minutes ago, cladner said:

It has been extremely difficult  for me to come by mint Tumbler boxes.  Virtually 100% of ALL LEGO boxes from target are now being stickered with a 1x4" UPS code sticker when sent to me.  This is tumblers or cinderella's bedroom  stickers placed intentionally squarely in the middle of the front of the box.  very annoying.  maybe they don't want to ban me and are trying to get me to stop ordering.  for tumblers i have been getting out the hair dryer but even some of these are damaged.  Amazon goes overboard with packing material and then the box gets a dent.  i have 1 on the way from LEGO Shop at Home with the complimentary christmas ornament shaped dent i'm sure.

Yep, they'll throw the ornament in and then dump the Tumbler on top, front-side down.  So annoying...

48 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

Tumbler no longer in the top 25 best sellers in the US, France, Italy or Spain.

Similarly priced and limit 1 Red 5 is in almost all lists.........

In the Dutch LEGO Shop at Home the Ideas sets Wall-E, Doctor Who and Ecto-1 are big sellers, but The Tumbler ranks 5th in sets.

Mind you: that is despite the ridiculous mark-up TLG charges Dutch Lego customers for Doctor Who, Detective's Office and The Tumbler!

Edited December 23, 20159 yr by Haay

39 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

Super Heroes hasn't quite reached City theme levels, but it's getting close.  From an investment standpoint, it might be more impacted than Friends at the moment.

By reaching city theme levels do you mean evergreen themes for which Lego pump out numerous similar sets every year?  

I think he meant generally crappy secondary market prices.

8 minutes ago, allen9917 said:

By reaching city theme levels do you mean evergreen themes for which Lego pump out numerous similar sets every year?  

Yes, plus the additional obscure exclusive heroes to milk comic fans. Whole theme is driven by minifigs, structures are mostly mediocre or worse.

Edited December 23, 20159 yr by inversion

13 minutes ago, Haay said:

In the Dutch LEGO Shop at Home the Ideas sets Wall-E, Doctor Who and Ecto-1 are big sellers, but The Tumbler ranks 5th in sets.

Cos people like you keep buying them

It will be hilarious if it makes it to 6th Jan and they put it on sale.

10 minutes ago, allen9917 said:

By reaching city theme levels do you mean evergreen themes for which Lego pump out numerous similar sets every year?  

Actually I meant this ^^.  I think the City theme is outperforming Super Heroes in the secondary market at this point.

8 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

Actually I meant this ^^.  I think the City theme is outperforming Super Heroes in the secondary market at this point.

This makes me sad since I collect all the sets from this theme. 

I'm getting sick of those that moan about box condition as I've always thought that the contents are more important. If I buy a set to build, I just pick up any box off the shelf and don't give two hoots whether there's pen marks, stickers, boogers, smegma, whatever on the box. I bought my last Tumbler from Argos where the box was brand new with current seal code but, plastered in catalogue number stickers that are impossible to remove. I'm building this over Christmas so I don't care.

While on the subject of Super Heroes, it's another investment theme (along with CITY and ENEMIES FRIENDS) that I'll now avoid due to over-supply, constant refreshes and fake minifigs.

Historic CAGRs:

Batman 30%. Dc 15% and Marvel 10%

 

6 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

boogers

I would care about these

10 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

Cos people like you keep buying them

It will be hilarious if it makes it to 6th Jan and they put it on sale.

If The Tumbler get heavily discount on 6th of January in the sale it will be very painful for all of us who bought it at RRP. 

Ha y'all load up on city sets and let me know how that works out for you........I bet they are gonna explode in  value once all the awesome super heroes movies start coming out.

7 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

I'm getting sick of those that moan about box condition as I've always thought that the contents are more important. If I buy a set to build, I just pick up any box off the shelf and don't give two hoots whether there's pen marks, stickers, boogers, smegma, whatever on the box. I bought my last Tumbler from Argos where the box was brand new with current seal code but, plastered in catalogue number stickers that are impossible to remove. I'm building this over Christmas so I don't care.

While on the subject of Super Heroes, it's another investment theme (along with CITY and ENEMIES FRIENDS) that I'll now avoid due to over-supply, constant refreshes and fake minifigs.

Box condition gives an idea of how well a set is doing. My local store has some EV, SOH, Helicarriers and SC which look like they have been played football with.

6 minutes ago, inversion said:

Yes, plus the additional obscure exclusive heroes to milk comic fans. Whole theme is driven by minifigs, structures are mostly mediocre or worse.

Agree. At least for city people tend to ignore them for investment, which sets up for some nice hidden gems. I have yet to see one super heroes set from 2013ish show signs of taking off, 6862, arctic batman, bugle, spider chase, the ironman 3 sets, 6869 quintet is still struggling, etc, etc. I used to be a bit disappointed by the lotr hobbit sets but unlike super heroes, at least we know the lotr are not coming back. 

Sometimes I wonder the wolverine chopper did good or bad to investors if you know what I mean.

12 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

Actually I meant this ^^.  I think the City theme is outperforming Super Heroes in the secondary market at this point.

True, in part because of the flood of counterfeit Super Hero mini/Big figs, which greatly devalue the real figs. The sets themselves are mainly bleh as well. Double whammy.