8 minutes ago, dcdfan said:

I don't think they're that compassionate. If they were, you'd get a heads up on everything. I think maybe they're not selling it as quickly as they'd like & stock levels are high in the countries they have it tagged "retiring soon."

Probably you are right. But I hope I am right.

4 hours ago, stephen_rockefeller said:

Yep.....unfortunately most can't  see the big picture, or maybe they can and just don't care

This here is a website that is about investing in LEGO sets. Smart investing in LEGO sets regularly consists of buying as many of the most promising sets as one can afford. So NOT buying promising sets seems to be a stupid strategy for a smart investor. This is discussed here all the time by everybody. But then again, when there are signs about an actual retirement of a specific set some people (like you) suddenly advise people NOT to buy - which is the complete opposite of what happened all those months before. I'm seeing a slight contradiction there. So what now? What should people do exactly from your point of view. Is it that they should buy the sets more over time? Well, many people have limited storage capactity, so they HAVE to buy sets near EOL. Maybe this website just has something in common with "Google will eat itself"...

Edited December 5, 201510 yr by rfish

Today I learned something exists called "Google will eat itself" on a Lego-related site. Of course, I used Google search to figure out what GWEI is.

7 hours ago, rfish said:

...many people have limited storage capactity, so they HAVE to buy sets near EOL. 

 

I totally agree with this. I need a larger house with a COSTCO sized basement.

Ditto on learning what Google Will Eat Itself means here today.  

I lurk here like most. Rarely post. But wanted to respond to Rfish's post re: seeing a contradiction.

IMHO this site is a cacophony of investor Id. Tactically, as a buyer, it works extremely well for locating discounted inv in small qty.

Everything else interpretive-advice related is entertainment-value only.  

Fair point as it is a contradiction. But its like screaming "fire!" in Hell. 

Edited December 5, 201510 yr by beatpoppa

43 minutes ago, rfish said:

This here is a website that is about investing in LEGO sets. Smart investing in LEGO sets regularly consists of buying as many of the most promising sets as one can afford. So NOT buying promising sets seems to be a stupid strategy for a smart investor. This is discussed here all the time by everybody. But then again, when there are signs about an actual retirement of a specific set some people (like you) suddenly advise people NOT to buy - which is the complete opposite of what happened all those months before. I'm seeing a slight contradiction there. So what now? What should people do exactly from your point of view. Is it that they should buy the sets more over time? Well, many people have limited storage capactity, so they HAVE to buy sets near EOL. Maybe this website just has something in common with "Google will eat itself"...

Its a no win situation and a bit of a paradox. If a Lego investor buys lots of a set he is encouraging Lego to continue to make more, which defeats the purpose of investing in the sets. But if you don't buy sets before they retire you're no longer a Lego investor. So...you have to buy sets to be an investor. The more investors buying a set the more Lego is encouraged to continue production. Thus, the reason there's a bubble thread.

A "retiring soon" tag after only one year puts the Lego Investor at a real cross roads. For every TH there's probably a guy out there holding a 10188 with 16R9 seal codes. 

 

1 hour ago, gbg108 said:

If a Lego investor buys lots of a set he is encouraging Lego to continue to make more, which defeats the purpose of investing in the sets. But if you don't buy sets before they retire you're no longer a Lego investor. So...you have to buy sets to be an investor. The more investors buying a set the more Lego is encouraged to continue production. Thus, the reason there's a bubble thread.

The problem is the sniping approach. When most investors buy in bulk when a set is rumor to retire that spikes sells and may lead Lego to extend its life. But if everyone buy their quotas in a steady phase throughout the product life cycle, it should not skew the sales metric too much and should reduce any last minute product life extension. Also less F5 heart attack on us too

1 hour ago, gbg108 said: If a Lego investor buys lots of a set he is encouraging Lego to continue to make more, which defeats the purpose of investing in the sets. But if you don't buy sets before they retire you're no longer a Lego investor. So...you have to buy sets to be an investor. The more investors buying a set the more Lego is encouraged to continue production. Thus, the reason there's a bubble thread.

The problem is the sniping approach. When most investors buy in bulk when a set is rumor to retire that spikes sells and may lead Lego to extend its life. But if everyone buy their quotas in a steady phase throughout the product life cycle, it should not skew the sales metric too much and should reduce any last minute product life extension. Also less F5 heart attack on us too [emoji6]

That makes too much sense, stop it!

Don'tu be giving away secrets...lol

5 hours ago, dcdfan said:

I don't think they're that compassionate. If they were, you'd get a heads up on everything. I think maybe they're not selling it as quickly as they'd like & stock levels are high in the countries they have it tagged "retiring soon."

This reminds me of the Exo-Suit situation.

27 minutes ago, Brian Briggs said:

This reminds me of the Exo-Suit situation.

you can bet the tumbler will begin going in and out of stock before the final "poof"  far faster than the exo-suit (which is a great ideas set). 

I still have a chance to buy tumbler, sea cow or red5 I think it's called (ucs x wing). Let's say MSRP, what do you guys suggest? Thanks.

First, tumbler is a huge set, so it will not be easy to restart production willy nilly since there will be too many different parts to make, unlike exo suit.

Second, buy limit is set at 1 per account throughout the world, and this set is not found in many toy shops. If lego wants to pump up sales, they should have up the buy limit to at least 2, preferably 5.

Third, although this set has been around for 1 year, the buy limit on lego shop remains at 1, which hint of production problems with this set. It could be that this set has too many of unique parts that are not used in other current sets.

From the above, i think it is retiring soon, as indicated.

If you're waiting til F5 time to meet your quota you are doing it wrong.

14 minutes ago, Alpinemaps said:

If you're waiting til F5 time to meet your quota you are doing it wrong.

F5 is to add a few more for funsies and/or the thrill. At least for me.

Then I can also tier sales a little better. But F5 is probably not the best strategy if it is your only strategy and you have an actual plan/desired amount of a set.

3 hours ago, Lordoflego said:

I still have a chance to buy tumbler, sea cow or red5 I think it's called (ucs x wing). Let's say MSRP, what do you guys suggest? Thanks.

Personally, I'd pick up Red 5, if I didn't have any. Tumbler is still available @ retailers & is retiring soon as well as the other 2 (assumption on SC)  but hasn't been out of stock at all retailers like Red 5 has. Sea Cow is a gambling mans purchase. If that's you, then you should get that. I'm guessing since you posted this question in the Tumbler thread, you may be leaning towards that one. I'm not against it by any means, I just think there's time. My 2¢...

Edited December 6, 201510 yr by dcdfan

Thanks, I posted it here because I bought two tumblers today, and saw the other 2 on shelves, if I get it when the store opens (in about 10 hours) I can still possibly get gingerbread house and calendar with whichever set I choose.

I don't think there's any prayer you can get a gingerbread...they're gone everywhere.

10 minutes ago, Kawshon said:

I don't think there's any prayer you can get a gingerbread...they're gone everywhere.

With the two tumblers I bought today, I got two gb houses and 2 calendars, that's why I'm thinking to go first thing in the morning ( calling before) and hoping that there may be some left from today. 

Nice!!  Those things are in such short supply...you're very lucky.

Out of 5 local Lego stores, only one had them  I am lucky and that's thanks to another (local to me) brickpicker that mentioned it day before. 

7 hours ago, Veegs said:

F5 is to add a few more for funsies and/or the thrill. At least for me.

Then I can also tier sales a little better. But F5 is probably not the best strategy if it is your only strategy and you have an actual plan/desired amount of a set.

If you have to F5 for DS, Tumbler and Red-5 that will be one very expensive button!

Thanks for the info regarding retirement. I'm more collector than investor but I always try to pick up 3-4 extra sets if I think it may do well post-retirement.  After seeing this I immedately ordered one from LEGO Shop at Home....learned my lesson from the TH.

  Seems like this one many bought early, so it was good on them.

 Remember at SAH when it sold out under VIP in no time flat?! Resellers were raking in the dough last winter. Since then it's been clogging the shelves!!  

For the most part it's been stocked by those who wanted them.  I usually don't wait until the last minute to buy a load.  Eventually they all will retire so buy when funds allow, that way sales are spread out.   I always say the earlier the better, but realize not all want/can to do it this way.  I know it sounds like a broken record, but if everyone did it this way I truly believe we'd see things retire quicker.  Bottom line is we make a bigger difference than you think.

34 minutes ago, conceptmachine said:

  Seems like this one many bought early, so it was good on them.

 Remember at SAH when it sold out under VIP in no time flat?! Resellers were raking in the dough last winter. Since then it's been clogging the shelves!!  

For the most part it's been stocked by those who wanted them.  I usually don't wait until the last minute to buy a load.  Eventually they all will retire so buy when funds allow, that way sales are spread out.   I always say the earlier the better, but realize not all want/can to do it this way.  I know it sounds like a broken record, but if everyone did it this way I truly believe we'd see things retire quicker.  Bottom line is we make a bigger difference than you think.

Well said man, if only other brickpickers would abide.