They don't have enough to make it widely available online. That's the problem. They simply can't produce enough of these right now to account for demand.

Which means their planning sucked. And it is second run already. Does it really mean that the size of the run for particular set is set in stone, and the time distance between runs is also set in stone? 

The point is that LEGO has you discussing the whys and wherefores of a possible Tumbler shortage.  Do you honestly think LEGO has underestimated the interest in this set?  

My "local" store is about 45 minutes away, so it's on that edge of "I am not going unless it's on the way to something else."  I called this morning, they got a shipment of about 5 in, but they had already sold 4 by the time I called.  I asked them to hold one for me, and they are actually letting a friend of mine pick it up for me, with my VIP card number.  Score! 

The point is that LEGO has you discussing the whys and wherefores of a possible Tumbler shortage.  Do you honestly think LEGO has underestimated the interest in this set?  

Given the limit 2 from the get-go, I assume they did not underestimate the _interest_ - but it certainly does feel like they either did not allocate sufficient capacity or they did not translate "interest" into production numbers correctly. Or maybe their product line is too broad, and they need to retire some big exclusives, wink, wink, to make sure that capacity meets demand, since the signs are all there that capacity is indeed limited at the moment. And all them 2015 sets... gee... i can see why they build factories in China

Edited October 8, 201411 yr by No More Monkeys

Given the limit 2 from the get-go, I assume they did not underestimate the _interest_ - but it certainly does feel like they either did not allocate sufficient capacity or they did not translate "interest" into production numbers correctly. Or maybe their product line is to broad, and they need to retire some big exclusives, wink, wink, to make sure that capacity meets demand, since the signs are all there that capacity is indeed limited at the moment. And all them 2015 sets... gee... i can see why they build factories in China

...or....ahhh....forget it.  

To echo NMM's sentiment they under produced ; whether it is due to factory limitations, meeting deadlines or underestimating demand we will never know. People are not happy when this happens (resellers aside). Sure it gives the set more exposure but it creates a hugely frustrated and angry fan base( a similar example would be all the hate mail and bad publicity Disney received over Frozen merchandise)

Given the limit 2 from the get-go, I assume they did not underestimate the _interest_ - but it certainly does feel like they either did not allocate sufficient capacity or they did not translate "interest" into production numbers correctly. Or maybe their product line is to broad, and they need to retire some big exclusives, wink, wink, to make sure that capacity meets demand, since the signs are all there that capacity is indeed limited at the moment. And all them 2015 sets... gee... i can see why they build factories in China

 

I agree completely on the factory, I posted earlier this year that the initial statement for regional production in China is true, but that long term they would say due to unprecedented demand the China factory is now a global factory as they cannot keep up with demand, all their plants stay busy but it allows them to move a large percentage over time of their production to China and lower their overall manufacturing costs without actually coming out and saying we are not adding more factories in Denmark and we are building left and right in China for further expansion.  Do not get me wrong Denmark will remain their corporate, R&D and their Denmark factory I am sure will continue to grow too.

They don't have enough to make it widely available online. That's the problem. They simply can't produce enough of these right now to account for demand.

 

Right. Which is what I said. I believe they can underestimate. I just don't believe they had some dumb plan to only sell it in stores since that makes the problem worse.

Unless the conspiracy theorists are right and it is all a ploy to kill the secondary market and send all the evil resellers crying to their mommies

...or....ahhh....forget it.  

 

Fine, I'll say it

 

Either increase production capacity or stop producing your slower selling items. The massive shortages are why I think some things retiring early hold water. They simply cannot keep up with demand and it takes time to ramp up new supply lines.

 

This is part of what gives the TH rumor legs IMO. It's a TON of bricks for a fairly low price. If TLG could go back 6 months I bet they would have allocated all of their TH run toward making tumblers instead. Not having their newest big set available for christmas is almost a crime to lego fans.

Given the limit 2 from the get-go, I assume they did not underestimate the _interest_ - but it certainly does feel like they either did not allocate sufficient capacity or they did not translate "interest" into production numbers correctly. Or maybe their product line is too broad, and they need to retire some big exclusives, wink, wink, to make sure that capacity meets demand, since the signs are all there that capacity is indeed limited at the moment. And all them 2015 sets... gee... i can see why they build factories in China

Woohoo guessing game.... My turn:

The shortage is probably due to something as simple as TLC outsourced the production of the big a** tires to some factories in China/Asia/Mexico and all/a few of those companies failed to deliver per the outlined standards. The amount of acceptable tires was only enough to cover the forecasted demand at B&M stores. So TLC have tons of black parts awaiting tires. Once those new batches of tires are ready (say in mid-November), TLC will have tons of sets ready in their S @ H warehouses.

Woohoo guessing game.... My turn:

The shortage is probably due to something as simple as TLC outsourced the production of the big a** tires to some factories in China/Asia/Mexico and all/a few of those companies failed to deliver per the outlined standards. The amount of acceptable tires was only enough to cover the forecasted demand at B&M stores. So TLC have tons of black parts awaiting tires. Once those new batches of tires are ready (say in mid-November), TLC will have tons of sets ready in their S @ **** warehouses.

Both types of tires - 6084656(unique to set) and 4610381 - are in-stock on lego parts store. But, as I said, not the batman cap (4652745)

Both types of tires - 6084656(unique to set) and 4610381 - are in-stock on lego parts store. But, as I said, not the batman cap (4652745)

Sure, just replace the word tires with caps in my paragraph above. ;)

TRU is shipping my 2 separate orders of TUMBLERS. lets hope they arrive is better condition than the town hall and/or T1 campers

TRU is shipping my 2 separate orders of TUMBLERS. lets hope they arrive is better condition than the town hall and/or T1 campers

it is called "tumbler" for a reason...

it is called "tumbler" for a reason...

 

Because you can mix a martini in it. Right?

that's called a mixtini

The point is that LEGO has you discussing the whys and wherefores of a possible Tumbler shortage.  Do you honestly think LEGO has underestimated the interest in this set?

Where is this because when I look at it it just says temporarily unavailable

Desktop version

Where is this because when I look at it it just says temporarily unavailable

desktop PC full browser mode... Not mobile

Kind of just thinking out loud here but LEGO never has put something on their website that didn't hold true correct? If this is true then picking this up at a price above retail would be worth the risk. This already is demanding a nice chunk of $$$. It will be outrageous when actual Christmas shopping roles around.

Kind of just thinking out loud here but LEGO never has put something on their website that didn't hold true correct? If this is true then picking this up at a price above retail would be worth the risk. This already is demanding a nice chunk of $$$. It will be outrageous when actual Christmas shopping roles around.

 

 

Lego would never lie.. lol

 

Kind of just thinking out loud here but LEGO never has put something on their website that didn't hold true correct? If this is true then picking this up at a price above retail would be worth the risk. This already is demanding a nice chunk of $$$. It will be outrageous when actual Christmas shopping roles around.

For RIs, similar text was saying "no longer available". Later was changed to "not currently available", same as Tumbler. Honest mistake? Little white lie? Grain of salt anyway. They "unretired" winter village market in Europe (though it is not clear if there was actual production run, or they are selling old stock). Honest mistake as well?

Definitely good points. I'm not going to put in the time and effort to round one up at a price above retail. Too big of a risk to rely on LEGO right now for anything but havoc and chaos.