Anybody notice the mini build that TRU has coming up on the 18th? It's a Bat signal......could this be a promotional gig to introduce the Tumblers to B&M's? It's been on the TRU website for a little while now, just not able to order it. Just a theory, but something to be curious about for a couple of weeks......

I went into the lego store leeds with the family and they had one tumbler in stock.  I already have 2.  I wanted to get it but the wife would not let me. 

Should I 

 

A.  Divorce her

B.  Thank her for restraining me from overspending on a risky short term investment.

C.  Say nothing then remind her about it repeatedly when people are reselling them for

So these sellers are making around $50 profit each (depending on shipping costs and sales tax at acquisition?)

 

For my state: Sell for ($280.53 + $15 shipping) - ($199.99x1.07 sales tax) - $15 shipping - $29.85 (feebay) - $8.87 (paypal) - $6 (gas) = $21.82 profit

 

(no accounting for VIP points)

Edited October 5, 201411 yr by Kenxxx

My wife was kind enough to pick up a Tumbler for me yesterday at the Lego store - there were still plenty in stock (Woodlands, TX location).  I'm kind of glad, she just bought one at this point - since it's a "Christmas" gift, I have to leave it sealed in the box.  So if demands goes way up before the holiday - sell it for profit and buy my own in January.  Double points made it a nicer buy too.

Edited October 5, 201411 yr by srm_520

My wife was kind enough to pick up a Tumbler for me yesterday at the Lego store - there were still plenty in stock (Woodlands, TX location).  I'm kind of glad, she just bought one at this point - since it's a "Christmas" gift, I have to leave it sealed in the box.  So if demands goes way up before the holiday - sell it for profit and buy my own in January.  Double points made it a nicer buy too.

 

I was just in the St Louis store today and they had 6 Tumblers.

For my state: Sell for ($280.53 + $15 shipping) - ($199.99x1.07 sales tax) - $15 shipping - $29.85 (feebay) - $8.87 (paypal) - $6 (gas) = $21.82 profit

 

(no accounting for VIP points)

You're forgetting lots of other variables.  Some people do have cheaper ebay and paypal fees.  Personally the 5 I sold this week were bought with double points and 5 free holiday promos.  Previous ones were bought with 500 bonus points for damage, and you can have orders of 2 which significantly lowers your shipping.  Example being personally sold a 2 count lot for $600 which with incentives at purchase cleared $190 on the 2.   Cost was only $169 on them after the bonus items and points .  Sold 2 for 600 - 338 =  262 - 72 fees / shipping = $190 profit on 2 units.   Every one of these could of been bought with either Cooper, Spaceman, Double/Holiday, or damage discounts so theres no reason you could not clear $50-90 on this set.  What are people expecting out of a brand new set?? Something you can make easy money on and clear $50-90 a set right out of the gate for 2 months straight is a winning investment in my opinion.  Just this 1 product has made myself anywhere from $750-1250 in the 2 months it has been out.  Not to many things you can invest roughly $3000 in and get $750-1250 out in 2 months.  There is absolutely no risk in the Tumbler right now.   

 

Same with Town Hall.  They sold out this week.  I picked up 3 quick ones with points and holiday so roughly paid $160+ tax and sold them for $275.  A ton of people this week said they saw TH and didn't buy them as they didn't believe they were retiring but you could of flipped them in 2 days and made roughly $75 on $160 (40-50% profit).  Not everything has to be a hold for EOL 2 years to make money.  I do plenty of that as well but on the sets that are temporarily hot you can make some easy money if you do not believe they are retiring.  

 

Obviously Tumbler will be available at one point and will settle down but from its inception through Xmas its a pure money maker.

I would love opinion on if anyone thinks this seriously has a chance of going up from $299 in value on ebay before Christmas.

I want to unload the 3 I have at optimal timing.

My guess is to put it up on black Friday at the going rate.

 

Opinions?

I would love opinion on if anyone thinks this seriously has a chance of going up from $299 in value on ebay before Christmas.

I want to unload the 3 I have at optimal timing.

My guess is to put it up on black Friday at the going rate.

 

Opinions?

Its just going to depend on if LEGO really doesn't get them in during December at the stores.  As Ed stated the other day no one is really Xmas shopping now.  These are just people buying it because they can't get it.  A lot are going overseas as 90% of mine have gone to the mail forwarding services in FL, OR, and CA.  I still think it can get to $300-400 with the current levels that are going to the stores each week.  I was told multiple times they would have 8 weekly shipments up until Black Friday.  This will be week 3 I believe and so far they have been getting those steady shipments.  So that spike of $325 to $335 we saw a few weeks ago hasn't been attained again as each stores seems to be getting roughly triple what they were the first 4-5 weeks.  I don't see it going below this 280-300 range for the next few weeks.  Seems to be steady.  If they are at the stores and then at SHOP at Home thats a different story but should still be hot enough to sell out through Xmas.  Then it should go back to being like a regular set late January when they are available (if that holds true as well)

I would love opinion on if anyone thinks this seriously has a chance of going up from $299 in value on ebay before Christmas.

I want to unload the 3 I have at optimal timing.

My guess is to put it up on black Friday at the going rate.

 

Opinions?

 

You can get $275 for it now, why wait? Just do it and reinvest in something you know will sell well at Christmas, you know?

You can get $275 for it now, why wait? Just do it and reinvest in something you know will sell well at Christmas, you know?

If selling on eBay, I would sell before the new holiday return rules take effect. This would be a prime candidate for someone to rebuy in January and then return back to you.

Has anyone else heard that they won't be replenishing the inventory of these until after the holidays? I hear that TLG wasn't prepared for the demand and once the last of the physical inventory is sold out at local stores it will be after January 1 before you see this available again at msrp. Might be worth gambling and holding until serious Christmas shopping begins to see greater gains?

Has anyone else heard that they won't be replenishing the inventory of these until after the holidays? I hear that TLG wasn't prepared for the demand and once the last of the physical inventory is sold out at local stores it will be after January 1 before you see this available again at msrp. Might be worth gambling and holding until serious Christmas shopping begins to see greater gains?

That's what it says here: http://shop.lego.com/en-US/The-Tumbler-76023

 

There is popular opinion that it is a secret plot by TLC to force resellers to buy all tumblers in sight, and then boom - they mass-release everywhere in November. Such move would guarantee them high sales number in september and October in addition to expected high sales numbers in November and December. 

 

oh, crap, forgot my tinfoil hat - silent black helicopters are approaching

I hadn't seen that, thanks for posting. Your conspiracy theory could be spot on. The store manager at my local store told me that today when I was in. I hadn't seen it online though.

That's what it says here: http://shop.lego.com/en-US/The-Tumbler-76023

 

There is popular opinion that it is a secret plot by TLC to force resellers to buy all tumblers in sight, and then boom - they mass-release everywhere in November. Such move would guarantee them high sales number in september and October in addition to expected high sales numbers in November and December. 

 

oh, crap, forgot my tinfoil hat - silent black helicopters are approaching

looks like spot on . just like they are doing with exo-suit

 and they did with GB and what was that ... Delorean ... are we all happy with the return on this

I went into the lego store leeds with the family and they had one tumbler in stock.  I already have 2.  I wanted to get it but the wife would not let me. 

Should I 

 

A.  Divorce her

B.  Thank her for restraining me from overspending on a risky short term investment.

C.  Say nothing then remind her about it repeatedly when people are reselling them for

looks like spot on . just like they are doing with exo-suit

 and they did with GB and what was that ... Delorean ... are we all happy with the return on this

They did not flat out lie in written before... well, except I guess in case with research institute, where they at first said "no longer available", changing to "currently not available" in a few days...

Edited October 7, 201411 yr by No More Monkeys

They did not flat out lie in written before... well, except I guess in case with research institute, where they at first said "no longer available", changing to "currently not available" in a few days...

 

No one was buying that Tumbler until they we "learned" that it would not be around this Xmas, then everyone was buying this Tumbler. Now my Lego store gets a dozen a week and goes through them in a few days. But they are steady getting a dozen a week.

No one was buying that Tumbler until they we "learned" that it would not be around this Xmas, then everyone was buying this Tumbler. Now my Lego store gets a dozen a week and goes through them in a few days. But they are steady getting a dozen a week.

I think you have to put into perspective the difference of any LEGO set being available in store vs. online.  In store, there are storage limits and most people do not have access to a LEGO store(less than 100 in the US).  So it is highly possible there will be a shortage at some point if people cannot access this set through normal retailers before XMAS.

At what point was "no one" buying the tumbler.  The thing has been sold out online and in store since it came out.  There weren't many available at the beginning to begin with but they were sure selling out each time and still are.  Some stores are making a few days but all the ones here still sold out the same day even with 20+.

At what point was "no one" buying the tumbler.  The thing has been sold out online and in store since it came out.  There weren't many available at the beginning to begin with but they were sure selling out each time and still are.  Some stores are making a few days but all the ones here still sold out the same day even with 20+.

 

In stores. Before the most recent panic there were piles and piles of the same ones in B&M stores for weeks at a time.

In stores. Before the most recent panic there were piles and piles of the same ones in B&M stores for weeks at a time.

 

mscheaf respectfully I think your Lego store must have the worst sell through in the United States.  I believe it but it is not typical of any Lego B&M I have ever heard of.

I think you have to put into perspective the difference of any LEGO set being available in store vs. online.  In store, there are storage limits and most people do not have access to a LEGO store(less than 100 in the US).  So it is highly possible there will be a shortage at some point if people cannot access this set through normal retailers before XMAS.

i am confused by this policy. They do distribute to stores, but don't want to make it available online, at least periodically, combined with backorder queue? but i guess they know better. Here is an interesting version of Lego response to someone's question about RI:  http://www.amazon.com/review/RJCWM8PMDOB4S/ref=cm_cr_dp_title?ie=UTF8&ASIN=B00L2DL6N4&nodeID=165793011&store=toys-and-games

Note "we normally start the development two to five years before the set comes out. We use this time to plan how best to distribute and allocate the set around the world" phrase. Fail Epic Fail, I guess, in case of Tumbler?

Edited October 7, 201411 yr by No More Monkeys

it could be just that they are trying to force people to visit their B&M.

 

may be their ultimate goal is to sell most of their items via their stores only which will give them better margin.

 

but whatever they are doing for whatever reason, its causing a temporary glut in the market... i hope this one doesn't become delorean once again ....

mscheaf respectfully I think your Lego store must have the worst sell through in the United States.  I believe it but it is not typical of any Lego B&M I have ever heard of.

 

Possibly? They had a good 12 Pet shops yesterday too. And so many ToO, DS, T1 and AA that I didn't even bother to count them. They have, however not had GE or HH since the summer though. FWIW

 

edit: also, they haven't had Falling Water in 9 months or so and the manager said he doesn't plan on ever getting any. Whatever that means. But keep an eye on that set.

Edited October 7, 201411 yr by mscheaf

In stores. Before the most recent panic there were piles and piles of the same ones in B&M stores for weeks at a time.

I never recall seeing piles of anything in a LEGO store.  Everything is neatly on a shelf.  Maybe it's just me.