When it comes to investing in BIG sets it is common opinion that NONE of them will ever be a real loser. This is my opinion, too, but there are some popular big sets I think are fairly overrated and will in the end "lose" the race for becoming big investment winners after EOL. I do not intend to p*ss anyone off here, criticising their favorite sets. But as it is a common practice in this forum to tell people to "buy, buy, buy!" I thought it might not be a bad idea to make people think again about buying at least in some cases. In the end, of course, this is also to tell you my opinion on sets I just don't understand why they are being hyped the was they are - and to get to know what you think about it.

 

The following sets released in 2014 might - in my opinion - become disappointments after EOL (for the following reasons):

 

1. MetalBeard's Sea Cow (70810)

(My undisputed 1st place on this list. While I do have reservations about the whole LEGO Movie theme, this Cow imo might become an absolute grave for investors' money - maybe the only big set of 2014 you could indeed LOSE money on. Why: Ships generally have a very good reputation as investments - also for me -, my problem with this one here is that it is just "way too fantasy" and simply over the top - which worked in the movie but doesn't work for a set (you invest your bucks in). Neither is it a real ship nor a pirate ship nor is it looking like a historical one. How is any AFOL going to want this after EOL, when the movie hype is over? I mean even for fans of the movie, I don't see too many people pony up $250. Plus it is a LEGO own theme, which is ambiguous on its own already. Has there ever been a set from one of their own themes this expensive?)

 

2. The Simpsons House (71006)

(The main issues here for me are the price and the target group. As a set it looks quite good and accurate to the series, I think, and Simpsons fans will surely love it. BUT: besides them - who else? Furthermore the series is (long) past its peak. It might be in its 20th season but interest is nothing like in the 90s. Anyone investing 200 dollars now might not get their money back for a long time, I fear.)

 

3. Sandcrawler (75059)

(I don't get why people like this set: it is brown, it is clumsy, it is ugly, it has never been an especially popular vehicle in the movies. And even now while being on the market I can't imagine too many people spending 300 bucks on this thing. Not to mention post-EOL performance. Even if you see it as a play set in the first place - which it is supposed to be, I guess. It just does not convince me to spend any money on it. And by the way: I AM a fan of the LEGO Star Wars theme...)

 

4. Fairground Mixer (10244)

(Yes, it might be the beginning of a new summer theme and yes, it might be a cool design idea and cool to construct - but, well, aesthetically it doesn't convince me at all. I saw it built in a LEGO shop and I have to say: That thing looks even more confusing live than it does on the package. If you don't know the name of this set and you look at it, it might actually take up to half a minute to get an idea what this "multi-colored set-up" could be all about. The Mixer might be nice for kids to play, but as an investment? No.)

 

5. Cargo Plane (42025)

(If you asked me I'd say: Don't waste your money on this! While it seems like a good investement at first glance, I doubt this set will ever become popular among TECHNIC fans and even among European TECHNIC fans. From what I know, TECHNIC enthusiasts love construction site equipment! Not too much besides that. Anything flying is quite rare is this theme - for a reason. Have a look at the EOL-gone Helicopter (9396): For a short time people thought it would really "take off" now it is retired, but the value graph tells another story - down from $130 to $100 in just TWO months. My conclusion: TECHNIC don't fly.)

 

Looking forward to your opinions and your personal list!

I like jaisonlines method with building a set and how that helps him with his decision process, it gives perspective. Rfish has a good point about display time vs. build time. I also agree it helps to be aesthetically pleasing but to say that the build has no relevance, I'm not so sure. It's LEGO after all. Build has to factor into it at more than 1%, otherwise we would all be buying models and figurines.

Exactly. It's not really about the build factor. It's about the final product and that feeling of "wow, this set was totally with building for N hours"

While being humble, I trust my gut just as much as reading reviews. Thus when it it comes to decision time whether to invest in a set (e.g. 10225 R2 and 10226 SC that I bought used sets to build ; both reviewed here) and I have time, I build them. I was absolutely surprised by both sets in a good way. The time it took to build was totally worth it so I invested in each. Note: most of these builds are dismantled after a couple of days for space reasons.

Now I've also invested in sets that I either disliked the final product (CUUSOO / Ideas DeLorean - terrible design yet great idea) or had no interest( Town Hall, Maresk ship due to the stickers & 10221 SSD). I went with my gut and common sets sprinkled with some luck.ha

So there are many ways to pick sets. Everyone should have their own. For me, build sets that I'm on the fence about to see whether I experience the "wow factor" helps me invest.

My list for 2014 - present

 

1) Research Institute

    Too much production runs

2) Pet shop

    Hoarded

3) Palace Cinema

    Hoarded

4) Fairground Mixer

    What is Lego thinking??

5) All the techics sets

    Too many made, too much discount all the time.

I think you all should stop right now to invest into LEGO.

 

The discussion clearly shows (scientifically proven) that not only the sets on the list but also every single other set will not appreciate and you shouldn't invest.

 

Please bring your already bought sets to my adress and I will take care of them for you.

5) All the techics sets

    Too many made, too much discount all the time.

 

I don't understand your point. Discounts are great.

 

And there are not "too many made", well no far more (just one or two) than the previous years: there are about 11-13 made each year since 2009 (one big for $180-250, one or two medium for $100-120, two for $60-80, two for $30-40, and the rest made of $10-15-20 sets)

Nothing really new in the +80$ sets (which are the ones I would be ok to invest in)

(and one of the 2014 sets is a reissue: 42041 was called 8041 in 2010, so in fact 12 new sets, not 13)

 

 

 

edit: I think that everything is all about what you expect as a ROI...

Edited April 4, 201510 yr by biniou

My list for 2014 - present

 

1) Research Institute

    Too much production runs

2) Pet shop

    Hoarded

3) Palace Cinema

    Hoarded

4) Fairground Mixer

    What is Lego thinking??

5) All the techics sets

    Too many made, too much discount all the time.

 

I hope this is mostly meant in jest.

I hope this is mostly meant in jest.

 

I just took it as, more for me!  Muhahahahahahaha!!!

My list for 2014 - present

 

1) Research Institute

    Too much production runs

2) Pet shop

    Hoarded

3) Palace Cinema

    Hoarded

4) Fairground Mixer

    What is Lego thinking??

5) All the techics sets

    Too many made, too much discount all the time.

 

The modulars are the biggest losers?  That's an interesting perspective, indeed.

My list for 2014 - present

 

1) Research Institute

    Too much production runs

2) Pet shop

    Hoarded

3) Palace Cinema

    Hoarded

4) Fairground Mixer

    What is Lego thinking??

5) All the techics sets

    Too many made, too much discount all the time.

You're joking, right? The Pet Shop and the Palace Cinema may be hoarded, but so was the Grand Emporium and that right now is inching close to $300. I don't think the modular line will ever be a loser. The modulars are awesome and a generic enough of a line that they appeal to many, many people. Who doesn't want their own city with killer buildings?

My list for 2014 - present

 

1) Research Institute

    Too much production runs

2) Pet shop

    Hoarded

3) Palace Cinema

    Hoarded

4) Fairground Mixer

    What is Lego thinking??

5) All the techics sets

    Too many made, too much discount all the time.

 

If the definition of "overthinking" was to be found in that post where one of the Brickpickers wrote a kind of essay about the art of factoring VIP points into his excel sheet, then the definition of "underthinking" might be found around here somewhere... I mean, to each his own opinion, but your strategy seems to be very "unique". If these are the losers, what are the winners in your opinion then?

Haha just wanted to start a discussion

 

But the winners from 2014 are: SSD, HH, TH and all the other sets that went EOL

I'm seriously curious to know who is buying all of the $800 SSDs. Certainly not wives who would never allow such a monstrosity in their home! I mean 36 of them sold on ebay in the US alone last month. Whoever is snatching them up, it gives me hope that the Sandcrawler will appreciate nicely after retirement.

The same type of people that will be paying $1500 for one in a year or so.

The same type of people that will be paying $1500 for one in a year or so.

without naming names most of my sales has been who's who of the world. Basically i recognize all the names and i am surprised that they are buying these from me..... { obviously they don't know me }

a. international buyers mostly aristocrats

b. movie producers

c.  actors

d. wall street's whoz who

 

i wouldn't go as far as Ed that this would be @$1500 next year . but i would agree with Ed that they will be the same bunch of people who would be buying these @ $1500 or $2000 or $5000

 

Ed, if you wish for the sake of proving the point we can put $10 bet and i will buy you a latte when i am in NYC area if i lose otherwise you do the same deal?

 

why i am saying this would not reach $1500 next year because i still feel that there is a lot of volume out there that needs to be absorbed. looks like there are over 56 sellers in amazon with over 400units of these listed. meaning that these has to be completely wiped out and the listing should be about 20-30 for it to reach in the level of $1500->$2000

Edited April 4, 201510 yr by newbie77

Haha just wanted to start a discussion

Good job, I didn't recognize the troll.

You deserve the badge.

Edited April 5, 201510 yr by biniou

i pray the Simpsons set has a short run and is unloved by investors.

also it is in its 25th season not 20th and is the longest running sitcom and animated series in US history.

it also spawned a movie that grossed half a billion dollars 20 years after the TV series started, but ultimately this means nothing other than you have synergy between Simpsons aficionados and AFOL both competing for a limited supply.

Actually now 26th this is one of the few sets I actually have for my personal collection. Love it.

Sorry, I'm a bit late to this thread as I didn't realise it existed until now!

 

I agree with the first post except that the over-produced and over-distributed Exo Suit should release the Sea Cow as the biggest stinker of 2014. I'm a HUGE fan of Steampunk and I'm sure a lot of others AFOLs are too therefore, the Sea Cow can only excel. I admit I wasn't too keen myself until I saw one built and just had to have it there and then. I've also been ordering these back-to-back during 2x VIP along with PS and R5.

 

Regardless of year, my biggest stinkers to date are:

 

9515 Malevolence - I was foolish as it was 40% off but, a hideous model from the rubbish prequels.  Nearly 2 years on, I still can't recover the

For 2014 releases, I will choose 1 stinker per theme:

 

1) Exo-Suit

2) B Wing 75050

3) Chima 70145 (pretty much all the

For 2014 releases, I will choose 1 stinker per theme:

 

1) Exo-Suit

2) B Wing 75050

3) Chima 70145 (pretty much all the

without naming names most of my sales has been who's who of the world. Basically i recognize all the names and i am surprised that they are buying these from me..... { obviously they don't know me }

a. international buyers mostly aristocrats

b. movie producers

c. actors

d. wall street's whoz who

i wouldn't go as far as Ed that this would be @$1500 next year . but i would agree with Ed that they will be the same bunch of people who would be buying these @ $1500 or $2000 or $5000

Ed, if you wish for the sake of proving the point we can put $10 bet and i will buy you a latte when i am in NYC area if i lose otherwise you do the same deal?

why i am saying this would not reach $1500 next year because i still feel that there is a lot of volume out there that needs to be absorbed. looks like there are over 56 sellers in amazon with over 400units of these listed. meaning that these has to be completely wiped out and the listing should be about 20-30 for it to reach in the level of $1500->$2000

I expect this set to break the $1000.00 barrier this Holiday season with the new STAR WARS movie hitting the big screen at the same time. As for $1500.00 in 2016? I'll take that bet. "Rouge One" is scheduled for a December 2016 release, so the SSD can approach that level late in 2016 in my opinion. STAR WARS will dominate the news and entertainment world for years.

Of course, it

Of course, it

For 2014 releases, I will choose 1 stinker per theme:

 

1) Exo-Suit

2) B Wing 75050

3) Chima 70145 (pretty much all the

Edited April 5, 201510 yr by Mathew

This post (as well as others) pretty much sums up the problem with resellers.  These are all good to great sets.  They offer fun builds, interesting minifigs and are good displays.  Just because there are more resellers than buyers (which is becoming the norm these days) doesn't make them stinkers.  I do enjoy this forum for finding good deals but I tell you the mentality of of some of these posts puts me off.  

 

If you're this put off by good sets that may not have a good return then simply don't buy them.  Why waste your money?  Doesn't seem very smart.  Here's a little secret that shouldn't take a rocket scientist to figure out:  Spend your money on exclusives.  Stick with modulars.  Otherwise there aren't any other guarantees.  Leave the discounted, fun sets to those that actually enjoy Lego.

 

Well I think he's right on with #2 and #3, b-wings and chima don't get much love (for good reason). The exosuit, bennys spaceshp, and especially ultra agents hq will be winners just will take longer to appreciate than some will like. 

I expect this set to break the $1000.00 barrier this Holiday season with the new STAR WARS movie hitting the big screen at the same time. As for $1500.00 in 2016? I'll take that bet. "Rouge One" is scheduled for a December 2016 release, so the SSD can approach that level late in 2016 in my opinion. STAR WARS will dominate the news and entertainment world for years.

 

Ah yes, that Star Wars classic French movie Rouge One, about the number one ladies lipstick colour. 

 

I'm here all weeks folks, well at least until Ed bans me for taking the mick out of him 

Well I think he's right on with #2 and #3, b-wings and chima don't get much love (for good reason). The exosuit, bennys spaceshp, and especially ultra agents hq will be winners just will take longer to appreciate than some will like.

Ultra Agents......really? Interesting.

Ultra Agents......really? Interesting.

 

Yeah, I think the HQ will be in demand once gone, its the biggest set from the first wave and has gotten minimal discounts. Lego usually gives non-licensed themes atleast a couple years of production, if waves 2-4 are popular this might be sleeper gold in 2016/2017.