You'll probably make some money, but why are you choosing this set and this set alone to put your money into? Why not Pet Shop, Mixer, Tower Bridge, Simpsons House (and many, many others) which are much more likely to retire sooner and hence appreciate quicker? There is a chance it retires at the end of this year in which case it will do fine but there's an equally strong chance it won't retire at the end of this year. Also assuming prices will still be at $530 in 12-18 months time is dangerous, there could be a reoccuring shipment and discount of this set for the next 18 months which puts a ceiling on prices.
Anyway you seem pretty set on it so all the best, remember to come back and taunt us in 18 months time. :-)