I don't honestly have doubts that it will appreciate in value. Only because of the UCS label, completionists will want to own it. I see it around $350-$400 for a while. That's where laggers tend to hover anyways, not too much above MSRP, but enough for some people to make a little profit of. Will it be a quick burner? I highly doubt that IMO, especially in it's EOL stages.
On to the last sentence: ROTLMFAO at finding this for 50% off. That will be pretty damn hard to near impossible if this stays an exclusive. And because of the UCS label, I highly doubt there will ever be discounts on it. Short of this turning out like the B-wing, which let's face it, the way Lego is going right now, this will be a decent seller, and have no justification for a discount to move on to another set.
I honestly feel you on this, even though I don't play with my sets. But, even I have beef with this set. At least with the EV and Sandcrawler, you get a great cohesive set, that looks good just sitting there on a desk, and actual play value. With this Hoth set, you get nothing. 2 baddies, hardly allows for much play anything without having to add on other sets. This defeats the entire purpose of what I believe to be a good decent set. When you say you need to add on tons of stuff to make it better, than it just further goes to show what a terrible job they did in releasing this set.
I know everyone has their own opinion and I respect yours, but they honestly could've done better meshing the two. IMO, (some won't like it,) but I think in order to do this a true UCS Assault on Hoth, they should've made it a $400, add an AT-AT, AT-ST, get rid of all of superfluous crap, and just focus on the base and main shield generator. I really feel if something like this was done, then you could honestly really recreate the assault without having to do too much, and I think it would be worthy of the UCS tag at that point.