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Many Lego-related blogs are written about modern sets. This especially applies to investment-related blogs. In a series of articles I try to generate enthusiasm for some of the more interesting vintage Lego sets. We enjoyed building them as kids, whereas probably more often we jealously admired them in our best friend's collection or in the Lego catalogue we devotedly picked up in the toy store. This is primarily a blog of nostalgia. However, investing in vintage Lego can be an interesting and fun pastime. The quest to find rarer sets, to restore incomplete sets and to assess your recently purchased lot of bricks can be exciting, relaxing and rewarding. In this series of blogs I will describe sets, show pictures, provide general and set-specific information for collectors and investors, and finalize each blog with some fun stuff. After reading a couple of these blogs you'll hopefully get a certain confidence in this matter. Let's start with set 1592, the Town Square. Those who are not interested in this set's history and contents are invited to fast forward to the "tips for collectors and investors" below. ABOUT SET 1592 There's a festival in town! It's the end of summer and everyone is out on the streets to celebrate the last days of sunshine. Behind the medieval castle walls there is a party. Here on the town square a procession comes by... a classic car, a flower float, minifigures in historical costumes... come and join the fun! Of course, this set being a promotional item, there's a commercial detail. In this case, the minifigures are invited to have a soup with some smoked sausage. HISTORY This set was first issued in 1980 in the United Kingdom as a promotion for the British cereal producer Weetabix. Although the link between this set and cereals escapes me (the sign crowning the snack bar says "fish & chips" rather than "breakfast cereals") that doesn't make the set any less desirable. The UK set, produced between 1980 and 1982, features stickers "books", "ice cream", "Legoland carnival" and the UK flag. After its initial sale in the UK, from 1981 the set was sold in Australia, Canada, Sweden, Germany1 as well as Japan2. Clicking this link will show you a German advert from around 1981. The advertiser, Fachgeschäft Spielzeugring (German toy retailer group), tells us this is a 'large city centre-themed gift set with a lot of content and endless playability'. Then in 1983 a new set 1592 was issued, being a promotional item for the Dutch company Unilever. Already then one of the largest Netherlands-based companies, Unilever has produced a wide array of foods, cleaning articles and personal care products. One of the many brands held by Unilever is Unox, best known for its soup and its (delicious) typically Dutch smoked sausages. To this day movable carts just like the one seen in set 1592 are used to sell these sausages and sometimes soup. In winter soup with smoked sausage is just as commonly seen here as fish and chips are (or should I say, were) in the UK. So The Lego Group and Unilever both did the math, resulting into the advertisement seen here3 (scroll down a bit). Translation left side: "Send me Lego box no. 1592 "Village with procession" for the special Unox-price4 of €18,13 inclusive of shipment. I enclose payment plus 3 promo wrappers. N.b. of course you can order more than one Procession set. For every specimen, use a new order form plus 3 extra promo wrappers (maximum: 3 per family). U can also get the box without promo wrappers, in which case we will need to charge €2,97 shipment- and administrative costs. This promotion runs until December 1983." Translation right side: "Unique Lego box costing you only €18,13 plus 3 Unox promo wrappers (shop advice price €31,54). "Village with procession" true measurements 39x29cm. Enjoy that tasteful Unox soup while saving for that unique Lego procession box" We are fortunate to know that the shop advice price was €31,54 even though this set was never available in any shop. The Dutch version of the 1592 set was only produced for the year 1983 and it was only sold in the Netherlands. Even in 1983, some UK set production leftovers were delivered in the Netherlands. This is what Gary Istok says5: "A Dutch acquaintance was a LEGO fan as a child... along with his 2 brothers... And their parents sent in 3 sets of UNOX Soup labels and money to get 3 of the Dutch 1592 sets. Well guess what arrived?? 2 Dutch and 1 British version of the 1592 sets!!" All of this makes Dutch 1592 the rarer of the two variants and also the most sought-after. SET SPECIFICS AND CONTENTS The set comprises of 471 or 4916 parts, 10 minifigures 1 statue and 1 steroids-fed horse. Let's first look at the minifigures, horse and vehicles. Back row, left to right: a statue, costumed man (with cup for soup!), book seller, convertible car driver, 4 knights, soup and sausage seller (previous job: fish & chips seller), flower float driver, flower queen. Front row: convertible classic car, horse, flower float. There are stickers for the knight shields, knight torsos and horse eyes. I'm not sure the eyes are all that realistic and if aligned carefully they will make your horse resemble cookie monster quite realistically. One year later, in 1984, The Lego Group would issue a horse part (Bricklink: #4493c01pb02) with slightly less disturbing eyes. The convertible car is a very neat little build, cleverly using a pile of 2x2 wheel plate + 2x8 plate + wheel fender + 2x3 plate + 2x2 plate to make a black grille. On with the castle walls. Even the first time I built this set, probably as a six-year-old, I thought this was supposed to depict a relic rather than an 'abstract' full castle. This was one of the reasons I liked the set so much: it stimulated the fantasy (history of the castle, what's behind those walls now?) A child could choose to pose the knights on and around the castle, or to let them walk in the parade. Probably, behind the castle walls other festival activities were going on. According to the poster, the festival took place from the 28th of August until the 4th of September. The Dutch flag consists of a white part + two stickers. The flag in the UK set had UK stickers, as mentioned. The second building is the book shop. The UK set has a sticker "books" for the kiosk one. The building is just lovely! The half-timbered structure is represented convincingly and the use of then-new windows and -door are very charming. The roof structure is rather complex and is fun to build. The building's only flaw is the use of the striped stickers on the canopy. I'll come back to that later. On the above picture you can also see the cypress tree which is considered a rather rare piece. Not as rare as finding one actual cypress tree within the boundaries of a Dutch city though. As can be seen in the above picture, the book shop even has a modest interior. The rest of the set consists of two lampposts, a statue of a guy, a STOP traffic sign, a blue bench, fruit tree, an avalanche of flowers (some in pots) and of course the soup with smoked sausage stand. The sticker sheet contains alternate stickers "vers schepijs" ('fresh ice cream'). A main picture of the box can be seen in the beginning of this blog. Here are pictures of the sides of the box (third image is shown on both shorter outsides of the inner box): The bottom side of the box: Lastly, the inner box, sticker sheet and instructions. Note that there are spares for most stickers: 5 knight torsos, 3 knight shields, 3 kiosks, 2 statue stickers, 3 snack bar stickers, 3 pairs of terrified horse eyes and 1 festival poster. Most unfortunately, the two weakest and rarest stickers (shop canopy) are not offered as spares. On the picture you can also see the great build of the car. Check out the way the designer designed that grille! TIPS FOR COLLECTORS AND INVESTORS Those who are interested in purchasing / investing in this set should note the following: While the UK set (1592-1) and the Dutch set (1592-2) are both quite rare, 1592-2 is the less common of the two. The 2008 Lego Collector Guide rates the rarity of 1592-1 as 5/6 stars and 1592-2 as 6/6 stars. According to the amazing Unofficial Lego Sets / Parts Collectors Guide7 the value of an excellent condition set (minor wear, box and contents are in well cared for condition) is 200 to 250 euros. In case you're planning to gather this set from several sources, try to start with a boxed version with incomplete stickers. Check the state of both inner- and outer box. If ordering online, ask for several pictures. After you've found a box(ed incomplete set), make the canopy stickers your next project. These are almost always gone, because they span multiple sloped tiles without much grip and there are no spares on the sticker sheet. To make matters worse, these stickers have a slight overhang. I reckon most canopy stickers were thrown away after building and disassembling the set once. Having found a box and all stickered parts makes life easy. None of the parts are exclusive to this set. Nonetheless, some are difficult to find such as the four black lantern cap parts, only present in two other rare sets; the above-mentioned cypress tree, currently for sale on Bricklink for at least €11,50; the unstickered knight shield, only to be found in two other sets; the two red doors and the black statue head which was only used in 4 other sets. You'll probably have to Bricklink these parts if not present. A full inventory of Lego set 1592 can be found here. Make sure the white flag part, the STOP sign and the two base plates are intact and unglued, the large black statue head hasn't been replaced by the more common cilinder part, the stickered knight torsos have not been replaced by similar looking torsos and the knight legs have not been replaced by other color combo legs. Check that the bricks (especially white, blue and grey) have not been discolored. If you want to try to restore the original color, read this blog carefully. Ideally the stickers have not applied at all; if so, they should have been applied as neatly as possible. Make sure the festival stickers have not been torn (like the canopy stickers, they span multiple bricks). If a sticker sheet is present, check for authenticity. The backside of an original sticker sheet reads "FasCal REMOVABLE", the sheet number is 195145. Beware that sticker sheets are being reproduced nowadays. Usually the best place to find rare Lego sets are Brick Classifieds (good deals), Bricklink (varied offer) or Ebay (quick purchases). As 1592-2 was only sold in the Netherlands, it's not easy to find it elsewhere. So you'll have to think out of the box. Introducing... the Dutch virtual market place Marktplaats. There you'll probably find one or more 1592s offered for sale. You'll find Marktplaats to be a bit different from the three above-mentioned platforms. First, bidding is possible but it doesn't bind you. So it really has no validity whatsoever. It's always a good idea to directly contact the seller, telling you that you're a foreign collector (or investor, if you think that's wise) of Lego and that you're interested in their set. Ask the seller if he will ship to where you're living. Then the awkward part: if you don't have a Dutch friend who can pick it up for you, you'll have to trust the seller and pay him or her trusting that they'll send you what you bought. It's a bit tricky but I never had a bad experience in the 10+ years I bought and sold through Marktplaats. Wise thing to do before paying any money: check how many years the seller has been a Marktplaats member, then Google the seller's name co-using the words "fraude" or "vals". Have Google translate the search results and conclude. I always ask for the seller's address, explaining it is for my own protection. Literally everybody gave their address without any objection. In the end you can never be 100% sure but it's better than nothing. Once you've completed the set, clean the parts (good method: by hand, see this thread) and ideally put them away in a dark, air-conditioned closet so the discoloring process of both bricks and box will be minimal. Or display it... after all it's a grand piece! FUN STUFF On with the fun stuff. First, a picture of two sets of Dutch instructions. Can you see what's wrong with the bottom one? Here's the answer. Unilever, holding company of cleaning solution brands, was clearly thought to sell sausages as well was soap during the Legoland festival. This funny error is continued on the two last pages of the instructions. I'm not sure when exactly the instructions were corrected. I have not heard of incorrect stickers or boxes. If anyone has those or knows they exist, please let me know. While the instructions of 1592-2 correctly mention copyright 1983, the box incorrectly says 1980 (clearly copying the 1592-1 box). This set is considered by some as one of the best The Lego Group has ever produced (see these and these reviews. It still inspires people... check out this awesome remake! Who's the statued guy? Living 1807-1872 it could be Italian cellist, educator and composer Carlo Curti, or British lawyer, diplomat and writer Henry Charles Sirr. Frankly and unfortunately I haven't been able to find any plausible candidate for this statue to imply an easter egg. If anyone finds out anything interesting on the matter of the statue, do let me know! 2 years before the UK release of the Town Square, another interesting set was released. In 1589 (Main Street) we can spot... a piece of yellow castle wall, just as tall and with the same battlements as seen in 1592. It gives reason to believe both walls belong to the same castle. Nice detail for those kids who really paid attention. The castle bits of these sets also remind of castle set 375. Last, not least! I know all of you have been desperately waiting for the answer to the question "so what's the difference between 1592-1's and 1592-2's boxes?" Well, TLG definitely did its best to make both boxes look as similar as possible, probably in an attempt to get away with delivering some stock 1592-1 boxes to Dutch customers... comparing both boxes very closely, the differences are barely noticeable (except for the stickers, of course). The car and flower float have moved a bit, the knights' heads are positioned slightly differently, the shadowing, the background color... all a bit different. But the trees, lampposts, minifigure gestures and door positions are just the same. Perhaps as an insider joke, there's one difference though... the flowers! Some of the several flowers differ in color. And behold... one bed of flowers was even added to the 1592-2 box picture! In all you really have to look carefully... (top: 1592-1, bottom: 1592-2 box fragments). References 1 See this Bricksetforum post written by Lego historian Gary Istok. 2 See this post on the Eurobricks forum written by Lego historian Gary Istok. 3 See this post on the Eurobricks forum. 4 The price in Dutch guilders was fl.39,95. 5 See this post on the Eurobricks forum. 6 The 2008 Lego Collector Guide p166. 7 Unofficial Lego Sets / Parts Collectors Guide, Gary Istok, price list. To see prices for very good, MIB- and MISB-conditions I strongly advise anyone to buy Mr Istok's magnum opus. It simply is a treasure chest loaded with facts, figures and pictures of every imaginable Lego-subject from the 30s up to and until the 90s. See here for a bunch of teasers and here to purchase it. Set 1592-1 is discussed in chapter 17 page 18, set 1592-2 in chapter 17 page 28.3 points
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When I first got into LEGO as an AFOL I was looking at all of the Star Wars sets that I had missed and how much they cost. It became necessary to figure out a way to get the sets cheaper or make more money. I knew that some people must be making money buying bulk lots and taking out the stuff they wanted and selling the rest. That seemed like 2 birds with one stone. I looked at the bulk lots on Ebay, realizing that most of what I would get from these guys were common pieces. So I started looking at bigger lots, somewhat intimidated by their cost. I figured, however, if an Ebayer was getting $10 for a pound maybe I could make some money just throwing stuff in a box, easy money. I made a purchase of about 50 lbs for about $350 because I saw some Star Wars sets and minifigures in there. Oh boy, easy money and some treasures of my own. Boy, was I wrong. The money is anything but easy. I quickly discovered that out of my 50 lbs of mixed LEGO, at least 5 lbs were easily recognizable as not building bricks at all. Tinker toys, K'Nex, Hot Wheels, plastic army men, broken action figures, Lincoln logs, playing cards, thumb tacks, thorny burrs and even broken glass was mixed into the ABS blocks. On top of all that junk, the real problems started. All of the Mega Blocks, BTR, and assorted knock off blocks knocked another 5+ lbs out of the lot. That's at least 20% of my precious blocks that was basically trash. As you filter through, you discover broken bricks, severely teeth marked ones and yellowed pieces. profits are getting slimmer by the minute. Ok, so I regrouped and focused on the sets that were obviously present. I pulled out the stuff I immediately recognized most of a TIE Interceptor, a little car, Jedi Interceptor with Hyperdrive ring, half an ARC Fighter, etc. All of these I scattered around me like ancient peoples paying homage to their creator. How do I go from lots of partial sets to lots of complete sets that I can flip to make back the money that I sunk into this thing? Well first I needed to figure out what was missing. So, I looked at instruction books to see what steps I needed to take to complete them and what pieces were missing from there. Utter bust. That's an awful way to do it. So I took apart the sets I had figured out and checked the inventory against Bricklink. I discovered what was missing, and that sometimes kids substitute pieces in the middle of a build. Now that I knew what was missing, time to turn back to 20 lbs of assorted bulk. digging through mixed bricks looking for the piece or pieces I need was time consuming and futile. Time to sort them out to make it easier. My wife and I sorted that 20 lbs of pieces by color. We had 10+ bags of pieces separated loosely by color (old and new colors mixing futilely.) That made it easier to look for pieces, but still sometimes wasting a lot of time trying to pick out a small piece in a big bag. After exhausting my patience, I turned to Bricklink to acquire the pieces I needed, dumping more money into this hole. Eventually I sold a bunch of sets I made from this and a few other bulk lots. Between the Bricklink orders I placed to complete them and the fees and shipping, I think I made some money. My book keeping was pretty terrible. But it all taught me some things. Some of these things I learned could help some people just starting out trying to find treasure in Bulk lots. STEP 1: Valuation So, you're looking at a bulk lot that you found on Craigslist, Ebay, a garage sale, another auction or whatever. How should you evaluate it? Weight: The volume of pieces will tell you roughly how much is there. 2 lbs = not a lot. 25 lb = a lot. Since you're not buying the sets one by one, you have to immediately realize that you are going to be getting dead weight in addition to the treasures that you seek. Visible sets: Any visible set that you can place is good. That will give you an immediate idea of what you can make out of the lot. No visible sets or parts of sets means that there may or may not be gold in there. Minifigures: If minifigures are present that's good. If licensed minifigures are present, that's even better. a loose rule I use is to look for flesh colored minifigure heads and hands. Sure there's some dummies in that group, and some good figures that have yellow heads and hands, but it's a good starting point. Instructions and boxes: Both of these are a good gauge to show you what sets may be present, but could be red herrings. Sometimes the instructions stick around long after the main components of a set are lost. Non LEGO stuff: There's always some detritus. The flotsam and jetsam of stuff that parents scoop up into the boxes. The most common stuff is non LEGO bricks. They're not always easy to pick out at first glance, but they're usually there. What you are looking for is how much of the lot is obviously not LEGO. Do you see doll parts, nerf darts, Pokémon cards, buttons, etc.? usually this is a good sign to me. It means no one has searched it. but it is a pain to filter through. Filth: Sometimes you can see how dirty and played with the bricks are. Most bulk will be dusty or dirty. Some will even have paint or marker on them. So with these factors, let's talk about how they factor into the valuation. an average lot is usually in the $4-$6 per lb range. Average lots show some partial sets, some minifigures, maybe a few instructions, relatively clean, with not a lot of obvious non LEGO stuff. Depending on the quality and quantity of the better stuff, you might increase your valuation, but remember you're not paying top dollar for what you see, because there's still a lot of work to come. Plus, you're going to get some amount of stuff you don't want. I have been known to go as low as $2-$3 a pound for stuff that had no obvious sets, mediocre looking or no obvious minifigures and excess junk. Then again, I have gone as high as $10 a lb for lots of minifigures and several mostly complete sets of some value. Some people stick to a hard $5 lb. Some lots of only minifigures I have seen sold for close to $100 lb. Figure out your comfort level and stick to it. Be prepared to have wasted your money on a big group of Mega Blocks. STEP 2: Sorting and figuring out what you have Once you get the lot, now you have to do something with it. Boxes full of bulk sitting in the garage is just hoarding. You're doing this to make your money work for you. So, I start by trying to pull out all the non LEGO, but also anything that gives me a good idea of what is there. Pull out minifigures, instructions, partial sets and set them aside. I bag the partial sets, with the minifigures and instructions wherever possible. I would never again sort by color. Finding a red 1x1 modified tile with clip in a big bag of red parts is much harder than looking through a bag of 1x1 modified tile with clips of assorted colors. Instead I start by throwing all the flats in one box. Slopes go in a second box. Bricks are a third box, etc. It's the most general sorting at first. As I go, I look for unique identifiers of sets like printed pieces or unusual shapes. Once the initial sorting is accomplished, I sort again by element. STEP 3: Completing sets The best way to make back the bulk of your purchase price is to complete the sets that you received. Some people will complete everything that they can, others disdain anything below a certain dollar amount. It's up to you how far down the rabbit hole that you are going to head. Once you get your sets, you need to figure out what is missing. Even if the set looks complete, it is best to verify. Some people will make substitutions in the middle of a set. Your customers may not appreciate substitutions, especially if there are megablocks in the middle of a build. So, it's time to take them apart to verify the inventory. If the sets are partial, you definitely should take them apart to figure out how much is missing. Look through your new bulk to see if you can find the rest. Focus on the expensive sets first. Check through your minifigures, instructions, and interesting pieces to see what sets may have been broken down entirely and see if they are worth reconstituting. You could do another survey of your bulk to see if the seemingly random bulk is hiding some treasure. I look for the part numbers on the interesting pieces. Finding the part number can be difficult, since it's usually inside of the LEGO piece and hard to spot, except with the right light. If the piece appears in multiple sets, I check for context with other pieces in the lot. Again, the interesting pieces generally have a unique shape, sticker or printing. If you can't complete them this way, or even with other bulk you might have, then you have to decide if sinking some more money into them is worthwhile. Does spending $10, $20, or $50 more make sense? Only you know for sure, but you've already dug a hole into your resources and time. It's either keep digging, or see if you can punt it off somewhere. I tend to try to get as many sets working at a time as I can. Hopefully this will help me to get the most missing pieces for the least orders. STEP 4: Dealing with the true bulk You're going to have leftovers after you pull out the stuff that is easiest to sell. You have several options. You could write it off. Put it back in a box and donate it or stick it in the garage, hoping to forget about it. This is generally the least appealing option to me. I've put time and money into this, so I want to recover something more than the tax write off or another box in the garage. Sell it as bulk. You could try to recover something from it by selling it all as a big lot, or even breaking it up into more manageable 1, 2, 5 or 10 lb lots. There's a lot of competition that way, but it's not super hard to do. Save the pieces to help you complete other sets in your next bulk lot. This is appealing because you already have it on hand. There's no guarantee that it will do the job, but at least you have a chance to cut down on further expenses. Sell the pieces individually through Bricklink or Ebay or some other venue. This is the most time consuming way to do it. It's also the way to get the most total value from the pieces, eventually. A lot of pieces may not sell quickly if at all, but you have a higher return on every piece that does sell. So, after all of that. You have to figure out whether it was worth it. If you made some money, or got some stuff that you wanted for less than the going rate, it will give you that rosy glow. It's fun to initially dig through all of that stuff searching for buried treasures. When you find something, it really does feel like it's all worthwhile. In the long hours of sorting, searching for pieces, and waiting for Bricklink orders it may be less fun. Waiting for the stuff to sell to recoup your costs is even less fun than that. I like to do it, but at the end of the day, the monetary returns vs. my time may not be the best. It may be the worst paying job that I have ever had. You really do need to have a plan for evaluating what you are buying and for dealing with it once you do. If you've never done it before, it may be overwhelming. It will take a little while to get more proficient. It's definitely not a quick buck, but money is there to be had. If you are disorganized, if you lose patience, if you don't have the time,you're just throwing money into a hole. May the bricks be ever in your favor. pictures are used to demonstrate example bulk lots from real auctions.3 points
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This blog entry I struggled with the title, and considered a "while you were sleeping" title or something else to really convey how I felt about the current state of Lego investing. Unless one were sleeping, it is easy to see how the Tumbler 76023 has taken off. "The Horde" should be proud. While I am sure plenty of Tumblers ended up in the hands of little Timmy, the horde can pat themselves on the back for plowing though the last 4,000 copies that Target and Target-eBay had left in record fashion being the last retailer standing after LEGO Shop at Home, Walmart and other online retailers ran out of stock. Lets take a quick peak at some numbers. Tumbler 76023 - Retired - Retail $199.99 - current Amazon Buy Box (USA) - $324.99 (as of 11AM on 1/26/16) - Approximately 62% initial bump. Yes I know that it is not the most accurate barometer of price, but I have to pick something. It looks to be trending just under $300 on ebay, with multiple completed sales over $300. Ebay may be cheaper at the moment, but it isn't far behind. Merida's Highland Games 41051 - Retired Retail $19.99 - Amazon Buy Box (USA) $32.90 (11am 1/26/16) increase of approximately 62%. I picked this set because of the $19.99 buy in was easy to compare to the $199.99 of the tumbler. Both retired in the USA on the same day, both have exact same "bump" although if you were not sleeping, you noticed trends and were able to stock up on your princess quota. I was able to grab a fair amount of this particular set for around $7. They were 60% off an already marked down clearance price. To achieve the same returns, one's buy in on the tumbler would need to be around $70. Anyone manage that price without them falling off a pallet somewhere? Doubtful. WIth my $7 buy-in I am around 470% increase before fees shipping, and I am pocketing around 350% after fees shipping. The Tumbler would need to hit about $939 to realize similar gains if purchased at retail. This set is small, easy to ship, and I don't have to have a heart attack about scammers and shipping issues when I ship out a $900 tumbler. Other Notable Mentions Ariel's Amazing Treasures 41050 - Retired Retail $12.99 - Amazon Buy Box (USA) $28.88 (11am 1/26/16) - Approx 222% increase. This is only other retired Princess set in the USA. I personally picked up 10+ at steep discounts (more than 50%), so was sitting on 400% gain before I dumped mine late last year and at Christmas time. Sleeping Beauty's Royal Bedroom - Sold Out Retail $12.99 - Amazon Buy Box (USA) $17.50 (11am 1/26/16) - These were blown out at LEGO Shop at Home for $9, and are currently on sale at targets for $5 or so. For those looking to instantly triple up on an item and get started selling, solid choice here to get going. Cinderella's Romantic Castle 41055 - Available Now Retail $69.99 - Available pretty much everywhere. This is the gambling set right here. This set will retire eventually, but we could have another dolphin cruiser on our hands and have a set that won't die. I personally sold a few in the $130 range (on ebay) during Christmas 2014. I think that this is a reasonable goal for this set to reach within six months or less than retirement. I personally think that this one is done and Lego recently made "one last batch", and when current supplies are gone, we will only see limited restocks. As an experiment for this article I wanted to see how cheap I could acquire them in the USA without too many tricks. I was able to pick up 4 from Jet.com (seriously horrible business model) for around $43 each (38% discount), with no tax using a 30% off first order and opting for no returns. They shipped from TRU and they lost around $80 in the deal according to my attached invoice from TRU. Seal codes were 47R5 for those keeping track, so fairly fresh. For me this set only needs to now hit $86 for me to "double up" and I should be sitting pretty when it goes over $100. If we truely had power as a collective, we should be after this one in full force. Note: This article was written "for the horde" and all the new investors that are all over the Tumbler with gold and glitter and rainbows. There are other sets out there doing just fine, we just don't talk about it.1 point
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So, you've stumbled across brickpicker.com and are overwhelmed by the number of different threads, blogs and sets. First, welcome to this community. Lots of users will happily welcome you, others, maybe no so much. Especially if you populate different threads with a variation on 'what should I buy' or 'is this a good set to invest in'? I'd argue both of these questions (other than gifs and sarcastic rejoinders) form the basis of every single thread, so instead of asking about a particular set, check out the thread dedicated to that set and start at the beginning. I can almost guarantee that some posters like it (some will even give logical reasons why) as an investment and some posters don't (also, sometimes logical). It is your job to weigh these pros and cons and decide where your opinion rests. You, of course, are free to post questions like the two mentioned above, but the answer will probably just be rehash of things already mentioned in the thread earlier. That, and forum members may be slightly less inclined to be helpful if they feel you posted it because you are too lazy to go back and read the whole thread. They might even be sarcastic/mean about it. A tidbit of Advice If you've read the thread and still want advice, at least try to be specific. Perhaps state the price and quantity you are considering and your ideal hold time. I bet a post that asks a question in this manner will be much better received. I know I'd probably answer this question with a little more insight and help than I would otherwise offer. Now, that is for a single set which has a dedicated thread. What if you are a new investor/collector/browser or Lego aficionado and you want to ask about several sets at once? I offer you this, a shopping list of what you should be buying today (according to me). I am looking for these same sets for one reason: they are either sold out or retired from either the Europe or North America shop at home and I believe they aren't coming back. I also believe that they have some potential, and carry a very low risk because they are becoming harder to find at MSRP or on sale anywhere. That isn't to say they can't be found – some might be found quite online still, depending on your market. Others might be in store only, so this shopping list is a handy thing to check when out with the family browsing retailers and trying to kill time. Veegs' Awesome Quick Guide of the Best Hopefully Soon to be Officially Retired or Already Retired in Some Markets Lego Shopping List. (Items may come back into stock. Not an official guarantee. Veegs is not responsible for your investment choices. Success rate may vary wildly.) Architecture: A nice range for all budgets! This line is one of my favorites, and I think the new Cityscapes, while neat, aren't as desirable as the standalone sets, which will hopefully push demand for older sets. Availability in Canada isn't great, but I think Barnes and Noble in the US still have some of these (your area may vary). No clue about Europe or other markets, but I'd keep my eyes peeled for any of these. Imperial Hotel 21017 Villa Savoye 21014 United Nations Headquarters 21018 Bradenburg Gate 21011 Leaning Tower of Pisa 21015 Seattle Space Needle 21003 At this point, I'm a buyer of any/all of these at MSRP CITY: Quite a few City sets qualify for my list, but these are two I particularly like. The Ice Breaker was a Toys R Us exclusive (at least in Canada) and boats are, in short, awesome. The Snowplow is pretty cool, and there is no remake (yet) on the horizon. Could this be the next Logging Truck? (I bought a lot of them...still not enough) Unique City sets often do well, and despite the constant police/fire sets, the themes overall CAGR% is rock solid, so there is money to be made on this theme with the right sets. I'd include Coast Guard Patrol 60014, too, if you can still find it. Arctic Ice Breaker 60062 Snowplow Truck 60083 Disney Princess: I am a huge Princess fan. I think this theme is on the cusp of doing some great things for investors, and have a separate blog in progress. For now, though, I think this is the best pick of the four that meet the sold out/retired criteria. Only Rapunzel set so far (minus a 2014 polybag) and a massive fan base (including my daughter). Disney toy collectors are out there (my daughter watches so many Disney un-boxing videos and such...I experience it first hand) and I doubt we're getting another Rapunzel set anytime soon or a remake – rumors have Belle coming this summer. I love this set. Rapunzel's Creativity Tower 41054 Friends: Quite a few others on the sold out/retired list but I gravitate towards these two. The Mall is a good anchor set for any town, and the last large Friends set to retire (Riding Camp) did well. I think this will do just fine in 12-18 months. I opted for the Beach House over a couple other mid-sized sets because Heartlake seems to have a boatload of stores but not that many houses. The new Emma's House and Livi's Mansion (although the mansion seems smaller than Emma's house?) bring some balance, but I think this set is one folks will pay double MSRP for to add to their collection. Heartlake Shopping Mall 41058 Stephanie's Beach House 41037 Ideas: Gorgeous set, and the growth in the European market has me believing in this set more every day. From the dedicated thread for this set I know folks are still able to find this in North America and use coupons or other magic to get it on sale. Your skill level and experience may dictate that, but I still think it is a great set at MSRP. Birds 21301 Pirates: Short run for a theme, and this is the flagship of the line. Still floating around at MSRP in Canada, but plenty got in on sale recently. I suspect if it is available around you, you can probably wait and get it on sale. Unlike others on this list, I'd prefer this at least 20% off before going nuts. The Brick Bounty 70413 Marvel: I was going to include Guardians of the Galaxy but I've already discussed those sets here: Ant-Man is growing like Wolverine's Chopper Showdown did and should be sought out in your region and purchased. Easy to store and probably easy to ship, great set for a brand new investor to track down and buy. Check recent sold listings on eBay to see what I'm talking about! Ant-Man Final Battle 76039 Star Wars: These will be the hardest to find, even at full retail price. In case you didn't know, a new Star Wars movie came out in December 2015!!! There are a few others I'd throw on this list, too, but I think these four are the best of the recently sold out/retired lot. At least in the North American market. Imperial Star Destroyer 75055 AT-AT 75054 MTT 75058 Mos Eisley Cantina 75052 The Hobbit: Stragglers are still out there from the third wave. It had the shortest run that I can remember from any/all of the Lord of the Rings or Hobbit waves and scarcity drives demand. Impressive sold listings for Lonely Mountain and Mirkwood Elves so I'd snap up remaining stock of this final wave. Unlikely to ever be made again and a huge fan base, coupled with the fact that there are no decent Medieval sets on the horizon (I'm not counting Nexo Knights, people!) There are many other sets that fit my criteria (sold out or retired in at least one market) but I think these are your best bets, even at MSRP. That being said, I happily nabbed plenty of sets not on this list but at a discount. Obviously, if the set is sold out/retired and you can get it for clearance prices, you probably don't need me to tell you to consider it (unless it is Ninjago, The Lego Movie or Chima, then consider longer...still might not be a great buy in) and probably nab it. Remember items marked clearance probably won't be in that store when you come back, so don't hesitate too long. Do a quick check of Brickpicker values or a scan of recent sold items on eBay, and if you see it trading significantly above the clearance price I'd probably advise pulling out the plastic and buying. Also, as per my exclusives 2016 article, no need for a new investor to start throwing money at exclusives! I doubt we're getting a surprise winter/spring retirement of a bunch of huge sets (sarcasm – I expect zero, maybe one Star Wars set around May the 4th) so put your money into sets that are already primed for post-EOL growth. Probably the safest place to put cash, and you can get your feet wet selling some of the sets on this list tomorrow (Ant Man, for example) or in a few months. I daresay all of the sets on my list will be able to be sold for a decent profit in 9-10 months. Low risk, short hold time (if needed, most will benefit from longer holds before plateauing but nothing wrong with cashing out sometimes) and good to great upside. Winner, winner, buy BigBlueDogBricks a chicken dinner. All photos courtesy of brickpicker.com, opted for one per theme discussed otherwise I felt it would be a little too picture-happy. Happy Hunting, Veegs1 point