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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/24/2016 in Blog Articles

  1. So, you've stumbled across brickpicker.com and are overwhelmed by the number of different threads, blogs and sets. First, welcome to this community. Lots of users will happily welcome you, others, maybe no so much. Especially if you populate different threads with a variation on 'what should I buy' or 'is this a good set to invest in'? I'd argue both of these questions (other than gifs and sarcastic rejoinders) form the basis of every single thread, so instead of asking about a particular set, check out the thread dedicated to that set and start at the beginning. I can almost guarantee that some posters like it (some will even give logical reasons why) as an investment and some posters don't (also, sometimes logical). It is your job to weigh these pros and cons and decide where your opinion rests. You, of course, are free to post questions like the two mentioned above, but the answer will probably just be rehash of things already mentioned in the thread earlier. That, and forum members may be slightly less inclined to be helpful if they feel you posted it because you are too lazy to go back and read the whole thread. They might even be sarcastic/mean about it. A tidbit of Advice If you've read the thread and still want advice, at least try to be specific. Perhaps state the price and quantity you are considering and your ideal hold time. I bet a post that asks a question in this manner will be much better received. I know I'd probably answer this question with a little more insight and help than I would otherwise offer. Now, that is for a single set which has a dedicated thread. What if you are a new investor/collector/browser or Lego aficionado and you want to ask about several sets at once? I offer you this, a shopping list of what you should be buying today (according to me). I am looking for these same sets for one reason: they are either sold out or retired from either the Europe or North America shop at home and I believe they aren't coming back. I also believe that they have some potential, and carry a very low risk because they are becoming harder to find at MSRP or on sale anywhere. That isn't to say they can't be found – some might be found quite online still, depending on your market. Others might be in store only, so this shopping list is a handy thing to check when out with the family browsing retailers and trying to kill time. Veegs' Awesome Quick Guide of the Best Hopefully Soon to be Officially Retired or Already Retired in Some Markets Lego Shopping List. (Items may come back into stock. Not an official guarantee. Veegs is not responsible for your investment choices. Success rate may vary wildly.) Architecture: A nice range for all budgets! This line is one of my favorites, and I think the new Cityscapes, while neat, aren't as desirable as the standalone sets, which will hopefully push demand for older sets. Availability in Canada isn't great, but I think Barnes and Noble in the US still have some of these (your area may vary). No clue about Europe or other markets, but I'd keep my eyes peeled for any of these. Imperial Hotel 21017 Villa Savoye 21014 United Nations Headquarters 21018 Bradenburg Gate 21011 Leaning Tower of Pisa 21015 Seattle Space Needle 21003 At this point, I'm a buyer of any/all of these at MSRP CITY: Quite a few City sets qualify for my list, but these are two I particularly like. The Ice Breaker was a Toys R Us exclusive (at least in Canada) and boats are, in short, awesome. The Snowplow is pretty cool, and there is no remake (yet) on the horizon. Could this be the next Logging Truck? (I bought a lot of them...still not enough) Unique City sets often do well, and despite the constant police/fire sets, the themes overall CAGR% is rock solid, so there is money to be made on this theme with the right sets. I'd include Coast Guard Patrol 60014, too, if you can still find it. Arctic Ice Breaker 60062 Snowplow Truck 60083 Disney Princess: I am a huge Princess fan. I think this theme is on the cusp of doing some great things for investors, and have a separate blog in progress. For now, though, I think this is the best pick of the four that meet the sold out/retired criteria. Only Rapunzel set so far (minus a 2014 polybag) and a massive fan base (including my daughter). Disney toy collectors are out there (my daughter watches so many Disney un-boxing videos and such...I experience it first hand) and I doubt we're getting another Rapunzel set anytime soon or a remake – rumors have Belle coming this summer. I love this set. Rapunzel's Creativity Tower 41054 Friends: Quite a few others on the sold out/retired list but I gravitate towards these two. The Mall is a good anchor set for any town, and the last large Friends set to retire (Riding Camp) did well. I think this will do just fine in 12-18 months. I opted for the Beach House over a couple other mid-sized sets because Heartlake seems to have a boatload of stores but not that many houses. The new Emma's House and Livi's Mansion (although the mansion seems smaller than Emma's house?) bring some balance, but I think this set is one folks will pay double MSRP for to add to their collection. Heartlake Shopping Mall 41058 Stephanie's Beach House 41037 Ideas: Gorgeous set, and the growth in the European market has me believing in this set more every day. From the dedicated thread for this set I know folks are still able to find this in North America and use coupons or other magic to get it on sale. Your skill level and experience may dictate that, but I still think it is a great set at MSRP. Birds 21301 Pirates: Short run for a theme, and this is the flagship of the line. Still floating around at MSRP in Canada, but plenty got in on sale recently. I suspect if it is available around you, you can probably wait and get it on sale. Unlike others on this list, I'd prefer this at least 20% off before going nuts. The Brick Bounty 70413 Marvel: I was going to include Guardians of the Galaxy but I've already discussed those sets here: Ant-Man is growing like Wolverine's Chopper Showdown did and should be sought out in your region and purchased. Easy to store and probably easy to ship, great set for a brand new investor to track down and buy. Check recent sold listings on eBay to see what I'm talking about! Ant-Man Final Battle 76039 Star Wars: These will be the hardest to find, even at full retail price. In case you didn't know, a new Star Wars movie came out in December 2015!!! There are a few others I'd throw on this list, too, but I think these four are the best of the recently sold out/retired lot. At least in the North American market. Imperial Star Destroyer 75055 AT-AT 75054 MTT 75058 Mos Eisley Cantina 75052 The Hobbit: Stragglers are still out there from the third wave. It had the shortest run that I can remember from any/all of the Lord of the Rings or Hobbit waves and scarcity drives demand. Impressive sold listings for Lonely Mountain and Mirkwood Elves so I'd snap up remaining stock of this final wave. Unlikely to ever be made again and a huge fan base, coupled with the fact that there are no decent Medieval sets on the horizon (I'm not counting Nexo Knights, people!) There are many other sets that fit my criteria (sold out or retired in at least one market) but I think these are your best bets, even at MSRP. That being said, I happily nabbed plenty of sets not on this list but at a discount. Obviously, if the set is sold out/retired and you can get it for clearance prices, you probably don't need me to tell you to consider it (unless it is Ninjago, The Lego Movie or Chima, then consider longer...still might not be a great buy in) and probably nab it. Remember items marked clearance probably won't be in that store when you come back, so don't hesitate too long. Do a quick check of Brickpicker values or a scan of recent sold items on eBay, and if you see it trading significantly above the clearance price I'd probably advise pulling out the plastic and buying. Also, as per my exclusives 2016 article, no need for a new investor to start throwing money at exclusives! I doubt we're getting a surprise winter/spring retirement of a bunch of huge sets (sarcasm – I expect zero, maybe one Star Wars set around May the 4th) so put your money into sets that are already primed for post-EOL growth. Probably the safest place to put cash, and you can get your feet wet selling some of the sets on this list tomorrow (Ant Man, for example) or in a few months. I daresay all of the sets on my list will be able to be sold for a decent profit in 9-10 months. Low risk, short hold time (if needed, most will benefit from longer holds before plateauing but nothing wrong with cashing out sometimes) and good to great upside. Winner, winner, buy BigBlueDogBricks a chicken dinner. All photos courtesy of brickpicker.com, opted for one per theme discussed otherwise I felt it would be a little too picture-happy. Happy Hunting, Veegs
    4 points
  2. For decades, the problem with collectible toys has been degradation of the materials. For most toys made in the past 40 years or more the main component is ABS plastic. ABS plastic breaks down and changes color as it ages. This process can be accelerated via exposure to UV rays (sunlight or fluorescent bulbs), Heat, and chemical reaction to other plastics. Most collectors have fought a losing fight to prevent their lighter colored plastics from turning yellow (or green if there is a blue coloration to the piece.) For many years various solutions had been proposed to roll back the scourge of time. Solutions included (but were not limited to) a good scrub, bleach, Denture cleaner, fine grit sandpaper and oxy-clean. I personally tried many of these solutions to debunk their effectiveness. While a good scrub can clean away surface dirt or even yellowing caused by smoking, it is only a surface approach, and the Denture cleaner makes the item minty. I found bleach to be ineffective and potentially harmful to the plastic if left on for too long. I was experimenting with action figures, so sanding them was impractical for many reasons, not just the amount of time and effort involved. Oxy-clean appeared to have no greater effect than a good scrub until I came back to the figures months later and found that it had promoted yellowing making them worse than ever before. I also tried coating them in Baking Soda to no change. So far, I felt that I had done a good job disproving the myths about bringing toys back to their original brilliance. One day, someone posted about a Transformers collector in Britain using Hydrogen Peroxide and sunlight to de-yellow their toys. This sounded crazy to me, considering that the sun was the major enemy of this plastic. Common Hydrogen Peroxide, found in any health and beauty section of any grocery store in the world, was used inside a sealed glass container with the affected items. Hydrogen Peroxide can also be found at beauty supply stores in more concentrated formulation, and I even ordered a much stronger version from the internet one time. (I believe that they have since limited the potency that can be bought due to some terrorist bombings.) I attempted to test the theory first by leaving my figures inside in a jar full of H2o2 without direct exposure to light. After a couple days, I could see no difference. So, I followed the procedure of setting the jar outside on a sunny day. After 12 hours the whites were whiter. Stronger potency Peroxide is more effective in both time and brightening. I am not a chemist, so I cannot explain how the plastic breaks down or how the H2O2 breaks down, or why that would leach the bad chemicals out of the plastic. What I can tell you is that the experiment did not end there. Was this a permanent solution to the problem? Literally, only time would tell. So, I took my experimental figures and threw them into a closed box and stashed that in a temperature controlled room for several years. Every once in a while I would revisit them. What I found didn't necessarily shock me, but it did sadden me. The pieces had begun to yellow again. Not to their previous levels, but noticeably yellower than after their initial treatment. This treatment was a stop gap, not a solution. Why is this a topic for a reselling forum? Well, for people who resell LEGO pieces, they may have heard of the Peroxide solution previously. They may have even used it to make older pieces presentable. A yellowed piece is much less desirable than a clean white piece. What will happen though is that piece will continue degrading under the surface. That degradation will start to show again. Instead of decades of displayability for a new piece, you are going to give the end user only a few years. I guess it comes down to the morality of attempting to use this solution to gain an extra little bit vs providing your customers with a happy long term buying experience. One might liken it to a used car salesman putting something into the engine to deaden the sound of knocking. Others might think of it purely as restoration To view my original experiment and the subsequent discussion from 2008 You can look here. In short here are the pictures from my initial test with 3% H2o2: Before: During: After: 6 years after: (Note: If you are going to try this, watch out for it spilling on your skin. Especially if you get a stronger solution)
    2 points
  3. A happy belated New Year to all my readers, all nine of you. May this coming year bring you discounted exclusives, 80% clearance finds in out of the way stores on long retired merchandise and superb buyer feedback in 2016. I'd also like to quickly take a sentence to remind readers that the Mack's, a.k.a. The Founders, a.k.a. The Collectors, a.k.a. The Guys Who Made Me Take the Blue Pill, are still raising money for St. Paul's and it would be a darn shame not to support such a great cause. I could cite a boatload of research that supports the notion that giving money away makes the giver undeniably happier, or could chastise those that read content (including this rubbish) but don't want to give back in any way, but I'd rather give a polite reminder that time is running out to buy tickets and the sets up for grabs could easily be the centerpiece of a budding collection. At the minimum, there should be lots of great stockroom photo sharing when these sets find new homes, and hopefully some education for little Macks. Back to business. What is BigBlueDogBricks targeting for 2016 in terms of exclusives? I'm sure everyone is waiting with bated breath to see what Ol' Blue is favoring, but I'll give a little background in case you are new to my flow. This will be my fourth year dabbling in Brickvesting (yeah, I'm starting to feel a little bro-ish using that term...might have to coin something new) and I am now confident classifying myself as a solid middle tier investor. I see lots of new members posting in various forums and can only assume you might want to hear a little advice on what kind of buying someone who was once like you is preparing to do. Side anecdote: Just before Christmas I was contacted by a fellow in the Greater Toronto Area who wanted to buy a couple of large sets. We chatted back and forth and he correctly assumed that because I had so many listings I was doing this as more than a casual hobby (like someone 'accidentally' has hundreds of Lego sets for sale at the same time?) and he asked a few questions about Lego investing and such. Yeah, not much of an anecdote yet...Anyway, he tells me that along with his brother they are getting into Lego and think investing is cool. They opt not to buy any of my sets (although they were underpriced from ebay sales around 20-25%, and I sold a couple of the sets they were interested in within a week for more than what they thought was too steep) but he did end with an interesting question – so you're buying tons of Pet Shops and Tower Bridges now, right? I chuckled, because I think people often get drawn to Brickpicker and think the big shiny sets are the easiest way to get started. I am a prophet preaching Anything But Modulars now, though, as I believe there are quite a few better strategies to be successful that are faster and provide a greater overall return than simply picking the current oldest modular and throwing money at it. Worst. Strategy. Ever. So, if you are relatively new or just don't have a lot of capital to invest what should you buy from the exclusives? Well, I've ordered my 2016 picks chosen from all the sets under the 'Hard to Find' label on Shop at Home (Canada), along with a quick rundown of why it deserves that ranking. I'll be back soon to talk about large (but not exclusive) sets that are on my buy list, and finish up with a smaller sets hit list. Fun! BigBlueDogToys Anything But Modulars Buy List Order, Winter 2016, Exclusives Ewok Village 10236 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 149 in building sets I'm sure plenty of other investors have this at or near the top of their list. It is the oldest Star Wars large (not officially a UCS) set and, in case you don't know, Star Wars is totally a thing with people. They by and large seem to love it, if box office results indicate anything. It was listed as 'check back in February' for a few months (but was always available to buy at other retailers, at least in Canada) and is now listed as temporarily out of stock. Rumors have maybe three or four large Star Wars sets in the pipeline, so something seemingly has to give. I'm not advocating going crazy for a small to mid-sized investor (I have four from a flash sale from Walmart Canada) but it will probably be the first set I buy during the next double VIP + promo event. If you want to read a lot of Ewok love (or conversely a lot of Ewok hate) the dedicated thread is long and I can summarize: opinion seems divided, not much in the middle. I'm a lover, not a fighter, so these furballs are alright with me. Despite a good sales rank, it hasn't been around nearly as long as the modulars on my dishonorable mentions list so I'll let its current relative popularity slide. The S.H.I.E.L.D. Helicarrier 76042 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 344 in Building Sets A couple of whispers from far off places (Singapore, if you don't care to read the retiring soon thread religiously) have this retiring sooner rather than later. Limit is 1 from Shop at Home. It is massive. Ewoks are running circles around it according to sales rank. So why buy? Unlikely to ever be remade, I'd say, or at least not anytime soon. Difficult for small and medium-sized investors to hoard a set this large and expensive. Marvel fatigue might be setting in a bit (perhaps more of a Superheroes malaise, really) although I think the core fan base will still buy. Hasn't been around that long, but I'd still rather use double VIP to get a couple in the spring and then reevaluate. The Fairground Mixer 10244 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 840 in Building Sets Overall the worst sales rank of the sets I've chosen to focus on today, which makes me happy. Almost swapped this with the Helicarrier...consider it a toss up for me. A poor seller in a crowded Lego release schedule seems very likely to get the axe sooner rather than later. I have a couple now but would actually be quite happy to aim for double digits here. I think it is a unique kind of set and is priced well for Canada! I was happy to grab Maersk EEEs when they were sitting with the retiring soon label for months and others were buying (presumably) modulars. I've sold some of those EEEs while those that invested in other large sets are potentially still sitting on them, and I've got cash profits to put into another hidden gem. It will be interesting to see if a third carnival type set gets released this summer, or if the Friends rollercoaster (heavily rumored) and other fairground sets are released in its stead. This summer the set will turn two, it isn't a great seller at the moment and doesn't get a ton of chatter on Brickpicker. I am going to throw a little money down on this one. Or a lot. The Simpsons House 71006 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 229 in Building Sets I loved this set a couple months ago, and still love it now. Solid seller, not as flashy in sales numbers as a few other very large sets. Read more here: Sandcrawler 75059 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 285 Second oldest Star Wars UCS-type set after Ewok Village. Reasoning is largely the same as Ewok Village, as I think this won't make it to 2017, comes from a hugely popular line and looks ballin'. I nod to EV first as I am afraid the Ewoks might not make it until Q4 (a.k.a. Retirement season) but I'm willing to gamble the Sandcrawler will. Also use some Helicarrier reasoning here: massive set, big price tag and big box keeps a lot of smaller and even mid-sized investors from going too deep on it (at least most of them). There you have it – this is a shopping list of what I'd like to nab during the spring double VIP. I'm not going to panic and grab them earlier as I am reasonably confident the sets on this list will not suddenly become unavailable permanently in February, and every percent discount or promo makes me more competitive in a crowded marketplace. I'm not going to order more than one or two of each, and not in quick succession or anything crazy that would merit a ban hammer, but will spread them over a week or two as I've done every promo period in the last couple years. Honorable Mentions Volkswagen T1 – Sales rank 385. Sales number indicates perhaps (finally) a little buyer fatigue? It has been out for seemingly forever and the new box design in 2015 virtually guaranteed (at least to me) that there would still be more time in 2016 to get more (not that I need more). I'll reevaluate in a few months. Those hoping The Lego Group wouldn't want three large car models on the shelves at the same time must be gutted. Mini Cooper – Sales rank 495. Slower than the T1, so an argument could be made that it might be retired ahead of the T1, which will become the new Death Star a.k.a. Live Star. Sydney Opera House – Sales rank 412. Tower Bridge is 183. Significant difference? As far as I know, the Opera House doesn't have a new box design, while the Tower Bridge does. I'd wager this goes in 2016 and the Tower Bridge stays. Just a hunch. That being said, I personally don't like the Opera House as much as a few of the others on this list, and I don't have enough money to go 5-10 deep on every set. I can't see myself wanting/getting more than 4-5 of these. It has also been discounted in other markets which has generally been linked to sets that are on the way out. If my sales stay strong this might get some love in the next few months. Dishonorable Mentions Pet Shop – Sales rank 89. 89! That is gross. I think modulars look like easy money and lots of folks are drawn in by them, but if it keeps selling this well I'm not convinced it will even retire this fall. If you are starting out, no problem grabbing one or two, but I think it is insane to tie up too much capital here. Plenty of other sets out there that should/could retire sooner and give a cash return faster. Palace Cinema – Sales rank 145. Also gross! If the Pet Shop didn't retire, then the Cinema HAS TO, right? AMITRITE? Perhaps not. Given sales numbers, why shouldn't the Lego Group have five modulars available at the same time? As long as investors keep stocking them away, I suspect they'll retire slowly. The difficulty for me is that in a perfect world, I would have piles and piles of each set, especially exclusives but that isn't realistic. I require stock turnover and sales to drive new investment, and my success (or failure) to move stock dictates approximately what I can spend. The spring double VIP event will be a good time to add a few large sets that I hope/expect/pray will retire at some point in 2016. When each set starts doing the in and out of stock dance, I'll probably squeeze some funds together to buy some from another large retailer, but I like to get at least a couple of each targeted set from Shop at Home in the mid to late cycle of its life. If you think I should be buying more Pet Shops, sound off in the comments section! Veegs (BigBlueDogBricks)
    1 point
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