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In this series of articles, I would like to take a look at the more expensive, most sought after sets of all time. Instead of reviewing the sets I thought I would address the parts of the sets that make them so rare and valuable. New collectors may wonder why they can't just build these popular and expensive sets out of the LEGO pieces scattered throughout their house. Inexperienced buyers may have concerns over what parts might be replaced in used sets that they are buying. People looking into bulk lots might want to know what clues in a lot would indicate that one of these popular sets are present. The first set on my list is 10212 the UCS Imperial Shuttle. I know that the Millennium Falcon 10179 is much more popular, but I want to do it justice, so need more time to work on it. The Imperial Shuttle, 10212, was released in 2010. The original retail price of this set was $259.99. Used complete sets sell from $400-$500 while New in box sets sell for $550-$650. The box shows a total of 2503 pieces including 5 minifigures. New collectors would probably balk at the price tag for this set. It's hard to fathom why a bunch of little plastic bricks that seem so ubiquitous could ever be worth that much. Sadly, that's not really close to top of the mark for sets, and these collectors shouldn't wait too long to have that band aid ripped away. The first reason that this set is not one that you could just assemble from all of your kid's loose bricks is because it is 2503 pieces. I guarantee that your kid would notice that many missing pieces. These pieces are not just random, they were selected, designed, and tested to go together to make the best representation of this iconic ship. Some of these LEGO pieces are very common, but you still may not have enough of them to fill in this set. Let's take a look at the pieces that are most common in this set. (apologies that the stock photos do not always reflect the color of the pieces in this set, they are for reference only) There are: 133 White 1x1 Technic Brick with hole Element 6541 133 Black Technic Pin with Friction ridges with center slot Element 2780 108 Blue Technic Pin 3L with Friction Ridges Element 6558 106 White Plate 1X1 Element 3024 82 White Plate 1X2 Element 3023 58 Light Bluish Gray Technic Pin 1/2 Element 4274 58 White Brick 1X3 Element 3622 52 White Brick 1x2x5 Element 2454 etc. As you can see, the volume of some of these elements can be intimidating. Even though most of these elements are common and cheap, most vendors on Bricklink do not carry the inventory to cover your needs for these pieces. You'd have to make multiple purchases, pushing the average cost of these pieces up, due to all of the shipping and handling charges. Of course your savvy Briclinker will know to either have multiple wanted lists running, to spread out their costs, but still a lot of pieces means a lot of separate orders. Apart from the Large number of common pieces, you also have some specialty pieces that make up a set. The specialty pieces are ones that are either unique to the set or in so few sets as to make no difference. The unique and specialty pieces in the sets tend to have values that reflect a large proportion of the total value. This causes some collectors to forego the piece in favor of a cheaper alternative, whether it is the same piece in a different color or completely different pieces that serve a similar function. Unethical resellers will replace these pieces and not tell the end users who may not know to look. In some cases, people have made fakes. Spotting fakes is important, but not the focus of this article. For most UCS sets, one of the most expensive pieces is the sticker. The sticker is unique to the set, large and limited in number. Some people require unused sticker, while others are content to have them applied. For the 10212 Imperial Shuttle, there is one sticker sheet that has a large sticker that describes the vehicle and 5 smaller stickers that represent computer screens. Sticker sheet The stickers for this set sell in the $40-$50 range. Bought separately attached to their elements The large sticker should run about $20-$30 and the individual computer screens $10-$15 each. The Large Sticker is attached to Element 90498 Black Tile 8X16 with Bottom Tubes which is only available in 12 sets. Most of those sets are UCS sets. It's a relatively cheap part at around $2, mostly because it is in the Rhino and Sandman Supervillain Teamup, a relatively inexpensive set that many are parting out. One of the harder to find elements is 32 White Technic Lift Arm 1X7 Bent Element 32348. It's available in 8 other sets and averages $.50-$.60 each. It's currently available in the Ferris Wheel 10247. You also need 8 Light Bluish Gray 40 Tooth Technic Gear Element 3649 which average about $1 each. There's a light Gray version which lazy builders might include, even though it is incorrect, because they don't want to take the time to verify it is correct. The windscreen 6267 is only available in Translucent Black in 3 sets. One of those sets is currently available and less than retail LEGO City Train Station 60050. Before that set was released, this element was more than likely fairly expensive, since the other set it was available in was the Grand Emporium. There are 4 Trans Clear Technic Gearbox 2x4x3 1/3 that usually costs about $1-$2 each 6588 It's not a terribly uncommon piece (available in 20+ sets) but only the Imperial Shuttle has this many. A cheap piece that is only available in 4 sets is the White Windscreen 7x4x2 Round Extended Front Edge 89762. The only reason that I can conceive that this piece is inexpensive is that it was available in a very cheap, common set, Freeco Speeder 8085. Element 3046a is also a cheap rare element. It is available in 3 sets. It's a light bluish gray 2x2 double concave slope. It's available in the SpongeBob Squarepants Flying Dutchman 3817 and Sith Fury Class Interceptor 9500. Both of which were clearance in the past couple years. My final rare element is the White slope 2x2x3 Double Convex Element 3685 It sells for about $3-$4 and you need 10 of them. It's available in 4 sets including the Imperial Shuttle Tydirium 75094. Of the 5 included minifigures, Darth Vader and the Stormtrooper are found in other sets but the following figures are available only in this set: Imperial Shuttle Commander Imperial Pilot Luke Skywalker Jedi Knight with Pupils (although this figure is found with a watch) The last thing that many collectors consider when purchasing this set and the most obvious thing that you could see in a bulk lot are the 4 instruction books. These books, as a set, sell for between $40-$75 and are available in the $100 range. If you've got a box, that gets you closer to the upper range of $500 than if it is missing. The hard parts of putting this set together are the rare elements and the sheer number of pieces. The average LEGO collector could probably get 25-33% of the way to completing this set. The rest would take a lot of time and money to buy in multiple lots. People who have used Bricklink to build sets like this typically look back and determine that they have spent more than the average sale price to accumulate the pieces of this set. Value is a tricky thing. It's hard to explain to someone who is not involved in the hobby, because they just see a lot of plastic bricks. Collectors see the rarity of an old piece that is well constructed and was not common while it was in production and has become less so since then. New collectors come into the hobby every single day, and some that have been collecting for a while have begun stretching out to the more expensive sets. The UCS Imperial Shuttle is in the middle of the pack as far as cost goes in the world of UCS sets. Quick quiz: I lifted some pictures from an auction that closed a couple months ago. Could you pick out this set from the photos? Would you know that this was a UCS Imperial Shuttle? What if I gave you this picture? In the weeks to come, I will be exploring the pieces that make up each of the Top 25 Most Valuable sets, Ultimate Collector Series, and Modulars. Images in this article are the property of http://rebrickable.com/, Bricklink and LEGO. ****************** Quick note from jaisonline. As mentioned in the article, the 10212 Imperial Shuttle has been selling for $400-$500 (used) and $550-$650 (new in box). So how much would the bricks, manuals and sticker cost if we "bricklinked" our own 10212? Using current used prices on bricklink.com, it would cost $539 (before postage) to purchase everything except the box in used condition. "2,488 Items in 226 Unique Lots totaling US $538.90 ready to be uploaded into your inventory." Postage can easily add an addition $100. Thus, 10212 is an example where it makes sense to buy the set (new or complete) in one transaction. View full blog article

Well finally realized I wasn't going to spend over $2,000 on a MISB 10182 CC just to pop the seals to build it so I broke down and got one used in a CL deal all 3 for $1200. Not bricklinked with instructions in great shape. I can finally see what people are talking about when they say you can only tell the difference in the dark red roof slopes in person. Thanks to @Diablo for his help in verification and @sauromosis who is going to clean the sets for me

For as long as I can remember, people have been puzzled by my interest in many things that were “for boys”, and I have been equally puzzled by why toys have a gender at all. As much as I am genetically and physically female, I have never been one to adhere to the likes and behaviors deemed appropriate to my gender. I am a builder and a creator. Both of my parents worked as computer engineers (although I used to think they worked on a train), so my brain and its nurturing were focused heavily on math and science. As a child, I liked toys that were fun to me, and I am thankful that my parents never tried to limit my curiosity and affinity based upon some societal norm. I loved jigsaw puzzles and my father’s vintage erector set, and I built elaborate homes for all of my Barbie dolls using blocks and bricks. I had a little bit of everything (partially because I grew up affluent and spoiled), but if I had to pick a favorite toy, it would be Lego. Sometimes, I did wonder why their were so few girls in my favorite Lego sets, but it never swayed my feelings I never expected to be a minority. I grew up white as can be in white suburbia, in a nice town, in a great school system getting average grades. I loved blocks, and ponies, and riding my bike. Nothing about my childhood seemed anything other than typical. It wasn't until college that my being female made me feel any different. I majored in Accounting and minored in Comp Sci at a liberal arts college with a 75% female student body. My business classes were 75% male and I was the only female in a class of 30 in my minor. Growing up, I never heard anyone say “you can’t do that because you're a girl”, so I never felt that way, but it was still a bit odd to be surrounded by men while exploring MY interests. My Lego collection (mostly Pirates, Castle and City) had a similar affliction. Though I did delight at the nuance of the rare female pirate, I never let a silly thing such as whether or not my toys were intended for girls or boys determine what I really liked. I viewed my education and intended career with the same carefree attitude, although I still remember my one female accounting professor enlightening me to the fact that only 10% of CPAs are women. Years passed. I finished school. I got a job. I got married. I started a family. I quit working 3 days before the birth of my 4th and final female child (my poor husband is plagued with daughters). At that point, I started to notice all the ways in which I am a minority. As an SAHM, I am part of only 24% of US mothers. The majority work at least part-time. I have more kids than the national average, and as a result, a minuscule net worth. The most important way that I am a minority, is because of my intelligence. According to SAT and GRE scores, I am ranked in the highest 5% of the population (among those who have taken these tests). Needless to say, after the first year at home, I got bored. Hence, I came out of my dark ages, just as my oldest decided she NEEDED the full line of Harry Potter Lego. I never much cared that Lego was "for boys". I just really liked the product. My girls and I are Lego maniacs, and I wouldn't have it any other way. Close to a year ago, I registered on BrickPicker. I read the forums, but didn't start posting until a few months ago. I had no idea I had so much to say. It was refreshing to chat with “adults”. As an AFOL, I really liked finding a place to share my thoughts instead of monopolizing the time of my local Lego Store employees. As an AFFOL (the first F stands for female), I started to notice just how very male the Lego reseller market is. As with most things, it doesn't really matter to me, but I do find it a point to ponder. I look forward to sharing with you as I explore the impact of gender on Lego sales and marketing. View full blog article

Can we please stop posting box conditions? No one cares, and it's not Tumbler-specific. Every day I see there's a new page in this thread, but when I skim through it, it's just: My box sucks. [Picture] Yep, that box sucks. Mine weren't so bad. [Picture] Walmart shipping sucks. Ugh, all of my boxes suck. [Quote: Ugh all of my boxes suck.] Better than mine—look. [Picture] Target shipping sucks. Does this box suck enough that I should return it? [Picture] [Quote: Does this box suck enough that I should return it?] Nope. [Quote: [Quote: Does this box suck enough that I should return it?] Nope.] Yup. Amazon shipping sucks. Amazon shipping sucks. Mods, please delete double-post. My boxes didn't suck! Yay!

60 Vday Dogs 5 Cases Mixels 7 210 Olaf, if they fail at least I can get lots of warm hugs

INTERNAL LEGO MEMO: Due to a recent uptick in sales, the 10248 Ferrari F40 will go back into full production and will not be retired due to poor sales.

I'm beginning to tire of this speculation

I think you got it there. Both sets have "tire" in the description text and I think that the search engine probably matches up with words containing 4 or more letter strings.

Maybe we should start a "What condition did your Tumbler from Target arrive in?" thread. Yeesh.

I'm all for helping people out, but I wish threads like these didn't pop up so much. This feels like the thousandth one in the past week or so. People don't bother to make intro threads anymore, they just get straight to the point, "How would you spend my money so that I can make more money?" and then you never hear from them again. I'm coming off curmudgeonly I know, but ugh, the site's going a little off the rails lately. /rant over. To the OP---Take Alpine's advice and buy what you like. Oh, and I'm sure Nexo Knights will be the next big thing.

This might be how Mos feels about the Orange vs. Red discussion.

No you should not return it. No you should not ask for a discount. You should however read the forums where this has probably been discussed 473 times that box condition, unless truly terrible, will not have a significant impact on the ability to sell a set down the road IF the set is one that is expected to be sought after. YES to all those who call and ask for 10% back on something with so little damage, I'm going to say it.. give your heads a shake. This kind of "damage" to a box will have a very minor effect on the price of the set if you're a true investor. If you're into quick flipping for a few bucks, you'll likely take a bigger hit. This is such extremely bad advice... Even if a box is dented, creased, whatever, the item is NEW as long as all the parts inside are NEW. I have a real problem with those who list as NEW once parts bags have been opened to remove minifigures and it's unfortunate that eBay doesn't have the proper categories to capture these scenarios (New-Incomplete vs New-Sealed vs New-Opened), but that's like saying the brand new car I bought isn't new because it has 30 miles on the odometer from test drives... Oh my, someone put their dirty feet on the floor or butt in the seat, the car isn't new anymore.

I don't know how to ask this without sounding confrontational, so please don't take it that way. Can you let us know what led you to drop $600 dollars on something you've never "played" with? I'm trying to understand the mindframe some people are entering the investment game with. In either case, welcome and make sure to read as much as possible. There is a ton of useful information here that will help you on your journey. MODS feel free to move this to the bubble thread or any other appropriate thread.

A happy belated New Year to all my readers, all nine of you. May this coming year bring you discounted exclusives, 80% clearance finds in out of the way stores on long retired merchandise and superb buyer feedback in 2016. I'd also like to quickly take a sentence to remind readers that the Mack's, a.k.a. The Founders, a.k.a. The Collectors, a.k.a. The Guys Who Made Me Take the Blue Pill, are still raising money for St. Paul's and it would be a darn shame not to support such a great cause. I could cite a boatload of research that supports the notion that giving money away makes the giver undeniably happier, or could chastise those that read content (including this rubbish) but don't want to give back in any way, but I'd rather give a polite reminder that time is running out to buy tickets and the sets up for grabs could easily be the centerpiece of a budding collection. At the minimum, there should be lots of great stockroom photo sharing when these sets find new homes, and hopefully some education for little Macks. Back to business. What is BigBlueDogBricks targeting for 2016 in terms of exclusives? I'm sure everyone is waiting with bated breath to see what Ol' Blue is favoring, but I'll give a little background in case you are new to my flow. This will be my fourth year dabbling in Brickvesting (yeah, I'm starting to feel a little bro-ish using that term...might have to coin something new) and I am now confident classifying myself as a solid middle tier investor. I see lots of new members posting in various forums and can only assume you might want to hear a little advice on what kind of buying someone who was once like you is preparing to do. Side anecdote: Just before Christmas I was contacted by a fellow in the Greater Toronto Area who wanted to buy a couple of large sets. We chatted back and forth and he correctly assumed that because I had so many listings I was doing this as more than a casual hobby (like someone 'accidentally' has hundreds of Lego sets for sale at the same time?) and he asked a few questions about Lego investing and such. Yeah, not much of an anecdote yet...Anyway, he tells me that along with his brother they are getting into Lego and think investing is cool. They opt not to buy any of my sets (although they were underpriced from ebay sales around 20-25%, and I sold a couple of the sets they were interested in within a week for more than what they thought was too steep) but he did end with an interesting question – so you're buying tons of Pet Shops and Tower Bridges now, right? I chuckled, because I think people often get drawn to Brickpicker and think the big shiny sets are the easiest way to get started. I am a prophet preaching Anything But Modulars now, though, as I believe there are quite a few better strategies to be successful that are faster and provide a greater overall return than simply picking the current oldest modular and throwing money at it. Worst. Strategy. Ever. So, if you are relatively new or just don't have a lot of capital to invest what should you buy from the exclusives? Well, I've ordered my 2016 picks chosen from all the sets under the 'Hard to Find' label on Shop at Home (Canada), along with a quick rundown of why it deserves that ranking. I'll be back soon to talk about large (but not exclusive) sets that are on my buy list, and finish up with a smaller sets hit list. Fun! BigBlueDogToys Anything But Modulars Buy List Order, Winter 2016, Exclusives Ewok Village 10236 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 149 in building sets I'm sure plenty of other investors have this at or near the top of their list. It is the oldest Star Wars large (not officially a UCS) set and, in case you don't know, Star Wars is totally a thing with people. They by and large seem to love it, if box office results indicate anything. It was listed as 'check back in February' for a few months (but was always available to buy at other retailers, at least in Canada) and is now listed as temporarily out of stock. Rumors have maybe three or four large Star Wars sets in the pipeline, so something seemingly has to give. I'm not advocating going crazy for a small to mid-sized investor (I have four from a flash sale from Walmart Canada) but it will probably be the first set I buy during the next double VIP + promo event. If you want to read a lot of Ewok love (or conversely a lot of Ewok hate) the dedicated thread is long and I can summarize: opinion seems divided, not much in the middle. I'm a lover, not a fighter, so these furballs are alright with me. Despite a good sales rank, it hasn't been around nearly as long as the modulars on my dishonorable mentions list so I'll let its current relative popularity slide. The S.H.I.E.L.D. Helicarrier 76042 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 344 in Building Sets A couple of whispers from far off places (Singapore, if you don't care to read the retiring soon thread religiously) have this retiring sooner rather than later. Limit is 1 from Shop at Home. It is massive. Ewoks are running circles around it according to sales rank. So why buy? Unlikely to ever be remade, I'd say, or at least not anytime soon. Difficult for small and medium-sized investors to hoard a set this large and expensive. Marvel fatigue might be setting in a bit (perhaps more of a Superheroes malaise, really) although I think the core fan base will still buy. Hasn't been around that long, but I'd still rather use double VIP to get a couple in the spring and then reevaluate. The Fairground Mixer 10244 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 840 in Building Sets Overall the worst sales rank of the sets I've chosen to focus on today, which makes me happy. Almost swapped this with the Helicarrier...consider it a toss up for me. A poor seller in a crowded Lego release schedule seems very likely to get the axe sooner rather than later. I have a couple now but would actually be quite happy to aim for double digits here. I think it is a unique kind of set and is priced well for Canada! I was happy to grab Maersk EEEs when they were sitting with the retiring soon label for months and others were buying (presumably) modulars. I've sold some of those EEEs while those that invested in other large sets are potentially still sitting on them, and I've got cash profits to put into another hidden gem. It will be interesting to see if a third carnival type set gets released this summer, or if the Friends rollercoaster (heavily rumored) and other fairground sets are released in its stead. This summer the set will turn two, it isn't a great seller at the moment and doesn't get a ton of chatter on Brickpicker. I am going to throw a little money down on this one. Or a lot. The Simpsons House 71006 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 229 in Building Sets I loved this set a couple months ago, and still love it now. Solid seller, not as flashy in sales numbers as a few other very large sets. Read more here: Sandcrawler 75059 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 285 Second oldest Star Wars UCS-type set after Ewok Village. Reasoning is largely the same as Ewok Village, as I think this won't make it to 2017, comes from a hugely popular line and looks ballin'. I nod to EV first as I am afraid the Ewoks might not make it until Q4 (a.k.a. Retirement season) but I'm willing to gamble the Sandcrawler will. Also use some Helicarrier reasoning here: massive set, big price tag and big box keeps a lot of smaller and even mid-sized investors from going too deep on it (at least most of them). There you have it – this is a shopping list of what I'd like to nab during the spring double VIP. I'm not going to panic and grab them earlier as I am reasonably confident the sets on this list will not suddenly become unavailable permanently in February, and every percent discount or promo makes me more competitive in a crowded marketplace. I'm not going to order more than one or two of each, and not in quick succession or anything crazy that would merit a ban hammer, but will spread them over a week or two as I've done every promo period in the last couple years. Honorable Mentions Volkswagen T1 – Sales rank 385. Sales number indicates perhaps (finally) a little buyer fatigue? It has been out for seemingly forever and the new box design in 2015 virtually guaranteed (at least to me) that there would still be more time in 2016 to get more (not that I need more). I'll reevaluate in a few months. Those hoping The Lego Group wouldn't want three large car models on the shelves at the same time must be gutted. Mini Cooper – Sales rank 495. Slower than the T1, so an argument could be made that it might be retired ahead of the T1, which will become the new Death Star a.k.a. Live Star. Sydney Opera House – Sales rank 412. Tower Bridge is 183. Significant difference? As far as I know, the Opera House doesn't have a new box design, while the Tower Bridge does. I'd wager this goes in 2016 and the Tower Bridge stays. Just a hunch. That being said, I personally don't like the Opera House as much as a few of the others on this list, and I don't have enough money to go 5-10 deep on every set. I can't see myself wanting/getting more than 4-5 of these. It has also been discounted in other markets which has generally been linked to sets that are on the way out. If my sales stay strong this might get some love in the next few months. Dishonorable Mentions Pet Shop – Sales rank 89. 89! That is gross. I think modulars look like easy money and lots of folks are drawn in by them, but if it keeps selling this well I'm not convinced it will even retire this fall. If you are starting out, no problem grabbing one or two, but I think it is insane to tie up too much capital here. Plenty of other sets out there that should/could retire sooner and give a cash return faster. Palace Cinema – Sales rank 145. Also gross! If the Pet Shop didn't retire, then the Cinema HAS TO, right? AMITRITE? Perhaps not. Given sales numbers, why shouldn't the Lego Group have five modulars available at the same time? As long as investors keep stocking them away, I suspect they'll retire slowly. The difficulty for me is that in a perfect world, I would have piles and piles of each set, especially exclusives but that isn't realistic. I require stock turnover and sales to drive new investment, and my success (or failure) to move stock dictates approximately what I can spend. The spring double VIP event will be a good time to add a few large sets that I hope/expect/pray will retire at some point in 2016. When each set starts doing the in and out of stock dance, I'll probably squeeze some funds together to buy some from another large retailer, but I like to get at least a couple of each targeted set from Shop at Home in the mid to late cycle of its life. If you think I should be buying more Pet Shops, sound off in the comments section! Veegs (BigBlueDogBricks) View full blog article

I can just hear the lego sales and production meeting tommorrow.. "Get Luis on the line. Tell him to fire up the machines and get us 45,000 more Ewok Villages. Brickpicker.com just got 15,000 new members last week thanks to some viral articles about this stuff being like gold, and they had some article telling everyone this is the number one set to buy. Then call webs support and tell them to change the color from temporary out of stock in red to temporary out of stock in orange. Tell Ingrid to cue the o'jays "For the Love of Money" on the loudspeaker, and bust out the dom - first round is on me fellas ..." Just like last year, when the red5 should have been dead by spring, but kept rolling well into december of last year.

I'm sure it has nothing to do with the "easily 2K by Christmas 2016" comments...

I have 16 of the 25. I started collecting all the UCS Star Wars Lego sets which led me to this Brickpicker site a few years ago and the have been hooked ever since. I have found bargains from CL, ebay and bricklink. I most I paid was a MSIB Grand Carousel for $2200 from bricklink last year. The best bargain was a first edition used UCS MF with certificates and letter of authenticity for $450 on CL. Most may have bypassed it as a sham listing on CL as I email him two days after he listed it. I picked it up from his executive office at Google. He also has the SSD and Death Star 2 on display in his office but unfortunately, not for sale. I literally had to check in at the front office, had to wear a badge to enter, and he even offered me a free lunch at their cafeteria. I sold the UCS MF and used the money to buy a MSIB Cafe Corner. Another bargain was a MSIB Market Street for $850 on ebay. Could not believe my luck as the seller listed a MSIB Cafe Corner, Green Grocer and Market Street all for $850 buy it now or bid process. I only had money for one, and bought the Market Steet for buy it now. People started the bids on the Cafe Corner and Green Grocer and both went for higher amounts. He listed it as Lego Market Street (1019) but he left out a 0 at the end which worked in my favor. I got the MSIB Taj Mahaj from a combination of trades and cash. I paid $800 cash with trades of sealed R2, HH and AA. This was before the three sets were retired. I got the Imperial Flagship for $150 on ebay, it was used with box and manuals from a low feedback seller. Again, some may have thought it was sham listing but you never know. I got a 10030 for $450 on ebay. It came with box and manuals and was listed as used. When it arrived, only one of the four white boxes was opened but all the bags were sealed. Lucked out. My worse trade by far was for a MSIB Green Grocer, I traded away sealed Pet Shop, Grand Emporium, Town Hall, Palace Cinema and a .....................................Haunted House (they were not retired yet but caution to newbies, do not trade away the future for something from the past). I picked up a sealed VW Beetle on CL for $250. He had it listed for $650 for weeks on CL. I finally contacted him and bargained it down to $250 cash. Obviously, some of these was several years ago so CL is not as easy to find bargains anymore. On ebay, you have to check new listings all the time to take advantage of some of these deals.

Thank you for sharing your personal feelings on the subject. The LEGO Universe has definitely made strides as of late to attract more women and girls into the hobby. When people talk about "emerging markets" in the LEGO investing and reselling world, they think of China and other untapped markets. The real and more important "emerging market" might just be women...

Most people, including myself, cannot buy 10 or 15 of every large set. It is getting hard enough to keep pace with the current LEGO lineup. There are a lot of large, quality investment sets out there and the Sea Cow had mixed results. It could have been a home run or a single, but I would caution getting too optimistic on this set right now. There are a lot if investors and resellers buying these sets up now because they missed it earlier.

hi ed, please read this thread and my sea cow blog. the issue is NOT that people waited until the last minute on the sea cow. this set was purposely ignored because peoples' focus were on buying tons of other sets like 10240 x-wing, tumbler, 10188 DS, ToO, Ewok Village etc... not everyone can buy every exclusive due to space constraints. it's more about picking and choosing the right sets with some luck.

Excuse me while I pick up my jaw off the floor. Intense. I thought we'd have some clues to TFA embedded in Rebels prior to the movie opening. Now I'm thinking it's the other way around. We'll be getting the TFA Easter Eggs in Rebels now that the movie is out. Can't wait for the second half to start (although, I'm still a few episodes behind).

More Rebels goodness ! Season 2.5 trailer

I wish it went the other way around with the US getting a surprise retirement. I was ready for this. Now I have to wait for that girl, her uncle, Big head Joe and your dentist to sell their 30 Tumbblers first.

Holy #$%! spoiler alert for tomorrow's page!

As of a couple of minutes ago, the DOW was down almost 500 points. I can safely say that as of this moment, LEGO bricks are a better investment than stocks....LOL

How many of these stores are going to send leftover Lego to exciter's store so that he may buy them up in 3 years time?

Please don't repeat posts in multiple threads. Read and you will find many of these answers.

I'm in favor of it.

You do know what the fire bike has? Feeling lucky now

Thanks for sharing this page. I originally ran this query against the US site. This kinds proves all of their country sites (portal) prob pull from the same database / data warehouse and then each portal renders only want should be displayed to people in that country (inventor, tags, language used, etc...). Country Code is prob "primary key" like Customer ID to help drive everything. So that box variation which is fully seen on non-US web sites (e.g. Denmark) does impact how the set is categorized in the US. Maybe the sets are returning in "retired" searches because of the word "tire"? Not sure.

Box + condition + this thread = done

I just want people to see I am new and donated, so people who have been here for some time have no excuse.

Dangit. Every time 'TRUTH' tactics pops up on my feed, I get excited thinking maybe someone found a coupon that makes shopping there worthwhile. But alas...

In a scene from the gut-busting movie History of the World, Part 1, Mel Brooks, playing the role of Moses, brings 3 stone tablets received from the hand of God down Mt. Sinai to the people of ancient Israel. As he takes the final steps of his harrowing trip, Moses steps in front of an assembled throng and proclaims in a booming voice, “I PRESENT TO YOU THESE FIFTEEN…”, accidentally drops one of the three tablets he’s holding and quips, “Oy, ten…TEN COMMANDMENTS FOR ALL TO OBEY!” As God himself gave his fifteen laws to Mel Brooks, veteran Brickpicker members have bequeathed their own investing rules to the rest of the Brickpicker faithful. These rules can be found dotted throughout the Discussion forum, Evaluation Corner articles and Investing Blog, and they provide investors with a wide array of plausibly accurate, seemingly tried and true Lego investing truisms intended to help new investors develop their own portfolios. While these axioms usually seem plausible and well-reasoned, as I have progressed as a Lego investor I’ve found most of them needed a thorough assessment to determine their accuracy. Let’s dive into the gospel according to Brickpicker members to see what these truisms are, and whether they hold water: Commandment #1: Thou shalt buy what you like This is probably the number one piece of advice given on this website, and I’m always floored by what bad advice this could potentially be. The logic seems sound: buy what you like so if the set goes belly up in the aftermarket, you can always build the set. From a financial perspective, executing this strategy is suicide for returns from your portfolio. As a simple example, let’s assume I had the following portfolio I wanted to liquidate today: click to enlarge Portfolio return if you decide to build 8070 is [($167 + $71) – $270] / $270 = -12%. Portfolio return if you decide to sell 8070 at a loss is [($60+$167+$71) - $270] / $270 = +10% From a financial perspective, opening the box and building the set will lead to a loss for this portfolio (assuming it’s not sold as a used set). The smaller collector-investor is especially susceptible since smaller portfolios can’t absorb the loss of entire sets. For people that invest in more than one of a set, this truism poses another issue – who wants to build and display more than one copy of the same set? Buy the sets you like and build them, but keep them separate from your investment portfolio. Also, limiting your portfolio to only certain themes you like not only limits portfolio diversity, but it can limit low risk sources of profit. Barring a catastrophic economic collapse, your investment sets will always have some value and profit-driven investors will always try to squeeze as much profit out of each set to protect their portfolio’s return. This commandment is bogus. Invest in profit potential, not sets you would like to build. Commandment #2: Thou shalt purchase trains One of my first eye openers after joining BP was learning the popularity of Lego trains. Before Brickpicker, I never knew the depth of the theme: Lego trains appeared as early as 1966, and new sets have been routinely released ever since. As a kid, I always thought these trains were great toys (although I never had my own), but I only learned of their profit potential after tracking the explosive profit of the retired Maersk Train. After perusing the train forum, I was amazed at the confidence members had in recommending trains for future profit potential and decided to dig a little deeper into the performance of the secondary train market. Are BP members correct about train returns? Here are all of the retired train sets released since 2002 excluding the recently retired yellow cargo train: click to enlarge The chart above should leave no question to the merits of this theme: Lego Trains must become at least a part of any serious Lego investor’s portfolio. Almost every train set retired before 2011 has provided incredible returns, and the recently retired sets are already showing nice returns. The only apparent exception, 4534 Lego Express, has a disappointing (yet still acceptable) 25% return, but that’s likely because 4535 Lego Express Deluxe is a better version of this set (with the same cars as 4534) that was released at the same time. This commandment belongs on a Kevlar tablet and should be screamed from the top of Mt. Sinai! Commandment #3: Thou shalt not invest in City For some reason, Brickpicker members tend to be bearish on the Lego City theme. While most believe the Modular and train sets will be winners, they don’t believe in much of the rest of the theme, citing frequent updates as the primary reason to stay away. In breaking down the City theme, I found four major subthemes: Police, Fire, Vehicles, and a category of rotating subthemes that have included marina, construction, farming, airport and most recently mining. For the most part, fig-sets, vehicles and buildings account for all the sets in each of these subthemes. Within the Police and Fire lines, I did find a few winners: Police click to enlarge Fire click to enlarge Interestingly, these are the same sets investors have cautioned against investing in because of the frequent updates, yet returns from the sets are solid and fairly consistent across the board. The only outlier is 7208, but this set was just retired late last year and should be given more time to appreciate. While these sets will likely not spike in value immediately after retirement, police and fire stations appear to provide strong and steady gains while adding some diversity to your portfolio. Even more enticing are sets from rotating subthemes such as farming, mining, airport and marina sets. Consider the performance of these sets: click to enlarge Those are some great numbers from sets retired a few short years ago. Keep your eyes open for larger, more striking sets in these rotating sub-theme lines as they have the potential to deliver some sizable returns. This commandment stinks – toss this tablet in the rock pile for pulverizing. Commandment #4: Thou shalt buy Star Wars Lego sets Commandment #4a: Thou shalt buy Ultimate Collector Series sets Since its inception, the Star Wars Lego theme has drawn collectors, and they in turn have drawn investors to the theme. This commandment and its corollary seem like two variations of the same meme. Yet, after reading Ed’s Evaluation Corner article about the bottom 50 performing sets, I was shocked to learn there were some Star Wars sets among the worst losers. After digging a little deeper, I found the entire Star Wars theme sports a CAGR of 9%, just below the 11% theme average CAGR, and not as high as I would expect from the most discussed theme on Brickpicker. While everyone knows how incredible the Ultimate Collectors Series have performed, I began to wonder if the UCS subtheme wasn’t propping up the performance of the entire Star Wars theme. To determine this, I independently calculated the average annual growth rate of the Star Wars UCS subtheme and, unsurprisingly, it was an incredible 29%. For a theme that’s been around 13 years, that is phenomenal annual growth! If the UCS subtheme sets were removed from the Star Wars theme, SW’s underwhelming 9% average CAGR would drop even further. The average Star Wars set isn’t performing strongly after retirement, and investors should consider limiting Star Wars purchases for other sets. While there will always be some general Star Wars sets that will return a profit (I expect 7965 to perform well post-EOL), the true stars are Ultimate Collector Series sets. Etch commandment #4a into the tablet, and get rid of commandment #4. There is one small note of caution, however. The latest retired UCS set is 10215 Obi-Wan’s Jedi Starfighter, and early returns haven’t been strong. It’s the only UCS set with a negative CAGR and while it while likely grow, it will probably be the worst performing USC set moving forward. Commandment #5 – Thou shalt not buy Chima I went into depth in an Evaluation Corner article about the potential of the Chima line, so please read it for more specific information. To summarize, now is not the time to add Chima to your investment portfolio because retailers haven’t discounted Chima sets and the television series hasn’t begun in earnest. With the absolute earliest retirement date for the first wave of sets at the end of 2013, there will be plenty of time to purchase Chima sets. With good pre- or post-Christmas discounts, this theme will be ripe for investing if the television show takes off. This commandment remains valid for now, but could be flat-out wrong by Christmas if the TV show maintains its early ratings. Be prepared to invest. Commandment #6: Thou shalt only purchase larger sets The logic behind this truism is simple: you can gain more profit for less work by selling a few well performing larger sets rather than a large number of small sets. For the small collector-investor, this is especially true since hobby time is usually in shorter supply than work time or family time. The allure of netting big profits from larger sets is also strong - wouldn’t everyone rather hit the Powerball jackpot rather than win a prize from a scratch-off ticket? However, there are reasons to consider including small sets in your portfolio. Purchasing a variety of asset classes (or themes in Lego investing) with a variety of set sizes helps to diversify portfolio risk. Also, a higher yielding, smaller set will provide higher rates of return due its smaller cost basis, and it will always be easier to sell for the same reason assuming equivalent demand to the larger set. If you’re worried about a bubble, smaller sets will be easier to liquidate in a bear market. The tribe has spoken: this commandment should be stricken from the tablet. Commandment #7: Thou shalt measure “value” with price per piece Let’s compare the piece count, MSRP and PPP of two actual Lego sets: Set A: 1,344 pieces, $70 MSRP, $.05/piece Set B: 1,300 pieces, $150 MSRP, $.12/piece Which of the two sets is more valuable? While some would say Set A appears to provide the buyer with more value, the correct response from a seasoned investor would be that it’s impossible to answer the question with the information provided. Here is the post-retirement performance of these same sets: Set A: -$23 loss, -5% CAGR Set B: $635 profit, 14% CAGR As the example illustrates, PPP is a completely meaningless measure of value. Demand drives value; very few consumers, if any, buy a Lego set because it sports a low price per piece. I have a feeling there would be almost no Lego investor that would select 5525 Amusement Park, Set A, over 7191 Ultimate Collector Series X-Wing, Set B, to add to their investment portfolio. This commandment is erroneous and not worth the tablet it’s engraved on. Commandment #8: Thou shalt invest in licensed themes instead of non-licensed themes I have seen this truism sprinkled throughout the Discussion Forum, and was curious if it was actually true. It turns out that among themes with above average CAGR, 6 of 28, or 21%, are licensed, while, 15% of below average themes (8 of 55) are licensed. This 6% difference doesn’t provide a compelling case that licensed themes perform better, so I wouldn’t use it as a rule of thumb. A theme’s secondary market performance will be determined by its demand, not whether it’s licensed. Anyone that invested in Prince of Persia because it was a licensed theme took some real lumps. It’s also telling that 80% of themes with above average CAGR are non-licensed themes. Ninjago, Friends, and Power Miners are all very successful non-licensed themes that beat a majority of licensed themes. This commandment should not be utilized for making investment decisions. Drop that tablet. Commandment #9: Thou shalt invest in Lord of the Rings I have noticed the exuberance of many BP members for the first release of the Lord of the Rings theme, and must admit I was excited for last year’s theme release. From an investment perspective, one would think the first wave of a theme based upon the most popular fantasy epic of all time should translate to high sales and high demand, but let’s try to support this opinion through assessing a similar theme’s prior performance. Harry Potter is also theme based upon a highly popular book series, and could be considered the flagship “wizarding” epic, akin to LOTR’s position in the fantasy genre. The first wave of the HP theme was released way back in 2001, and every set performed well post-EOL: click to enlarge While the table above illustrates the incredible returns from the first year of HP released sets, there is a significant difference between the two themes’ first wave of sets. At the time of Lego’s first HP release in 2001, the Potter craze was still relatively new, and Lego was able to capitalize on the freshness and fervor of Potter-mania. Not so with LOTR: this theme was released after all three movies had already been retired to DVD. While this may temper demand for the first wave of LOTR sets slightly, I still think the large base of LOTR fans will fuel great secondary market sales of all sets of LOTR’s first wave. Additionally, the second wave of LOTR sets includes two awesome, yet-to-be released sets: Pirate Ship Ambush (a ship) and Tower of Orthanc (a mega-build with serious playability and depth). These sets alone should increase the popularity of an already successful theme and ensure the first wave of sets perform well after retirement. Chisel this commandment in stone and put it behind glass! Commandment #10: Thou shalt fear a bubble Besides Lego’s 50% discount off a certain starship, the possibility of a looming Lego investment bubble is the most hotly debated topic on Brickpicker’s Discussion Forum. I don’t want to rehash whether there may or may not be a bubble, but I do want to discuss how to insulate yourself from the fears of one. First, it should go without saying that Lego investors should always consider the RAMIFICATIONS of a bubble before succumbing to the allure of 10179-type profits and plowing a bunch of money into Lego sets. Every investor should ask themselves the following questions: What is my appetite for risk? Am I prepared to lose money? Is this a hobby or is this a job? How much time do I want to spend investing? What is my timeline for making profits? Am I in this for quick money, or long term returns? The answer to these questions should tell you the type of investor you are, and shape your investing strategy. If you have a small appetite for risk, are enjoying Lego investing as a hobby with a small time commitment, and want to make quick profits, your portfolio selections will be much different than someone with a high appetite for risk that is willing to tie their money up for a few years. Those that are risk averse, or fear a bubble, should probably keep their portfolios small for a cycle or two until they’re comfortable with how the Lego secondary market performs, and how small should depend upon your disposable income. Regardless of investment type, the happiest investors always invest with a plan tailored to their specific risk tolerance, activity level and sales duration, and adjust their plan as they learn more about the market and about themselves as investors. In the end, that’s really the only commandment that belongs on the tablet. As always, invest accordingly. *Graphic image for title came from bricktestament.com View full blog article

Great read, and always happy to have more posters. I love reading threads, but I really, really like seeing a new blog post. I only have one daughter and am starting to see how societal concepts of gender affect her (and me). I've never pushed anything on her, but she is drawn to Friends and Disney Princess Lego like a cat to cat nip. I wish she'd ask for Harry Potter (perhaps she will as she'll be old enough to see the new planned HP universe movies as they come out - she might be cranky that I sold all of my HP lego). As for gender/marketing and Lego, I am particularly interested in your perspectives. I've got a couple articles in the works that include sets from the 'girly' themes and I think there is both money to be made on these themes and enjoyment for my family, but I'm not looking at them in a holistic way.

Thanks for the share Poly. It was great to read the brief, but interesting story of a fellow Brickpicker! I have an older daughter and a younger son. I have pushed LEGOs very hard with them both. What is better than a 3d puzzle that you can play with?!!!! I can happily say that both my kids love LEGOs. They both play with them very differently and my wife carries the Master Builder badge way better than I do. She is excellent at building, and the kids always ask her for help first .... then me if she is busy :). My wife is also a SAHM, and that was not planned or done because she was the AFFOL, the math pointed us that way (another story for another day). I appreciate the effort LEGO has put into making sure the Elf and Friends line is of a high quality. I know my daughter likes the lines, but she still plays with the Star Wars and Ninjago sets just as much. She loves minifigures of all kinds ... All in all, I hope we see more successful gender encompassing LEGO sets. We really like UniKitty, Nia, and Wonder Woman. At least those are her favorite Dimensions characters ... I look forward to seeing you online. All the best to you and your family.

Like I keep saying why do so many keep waiting and waiting to get a great set until the last minute, now there are many guys on this site that are regretting not getting another great money maker. Ed

My fault, I've made a mistake and realize I thought we were talking the "hard to find" logo... I read the LEGO Shop at Home in french so I have mingled these two status... (I don't remember what was written in french, because I didn't care at that time, I was playing darts drinking beer with my friend ciglione)

What a dog of an investment. My advice: take this and town hall and trade them for walmart yoda statues.

Sucked.

Assuming of course you mean gold, the main difference here is that with Lego, there are hundreds of potential "rare earth metals" to consider, and probably 90-95% (roughly, I have not taken the time to bust out my protractor) will not ever explode in value like all of the prospectors are hoping for. Therefore, picking wisely, experiencing builds, measuring popularity, and putting yourself in the mind of the common consumer are vital towards solid investing decisons. Not all Lego is gold!

probably some reseller scum looking to stash more gold in their vault.

Rat infestation of the cupboard.

3 x 30397 Olaf's summertime fun @ $4each 3 x 30421 skybound plane @ $4 each

The buttface ugly boat contest has some strong entries this time around.