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A happy belated New Year to all my readers, all nine of you. May this coming year bring you discounted exclusives, 80% clearance finds in out of the way stores on long retired merchandise and superb buyer feedback in 2016. I'd also like to quickly take a sentence to remind readers that the Mack's, a.k.a. The Founders, a.k.a. The Collectors, a.k.a. The Guys Who Made Me Take the Blue Pill, are still raising money for St. Paul's and it would be a darn shame not to support such a great cause. I could cite a boatload of research that supports the notion that giving money away makes the giver undeniably happier, or could chastise those that read content (including this rubbish) but don't want to give back in any way, but I'd rather give a polite reminder that time is running out to buy tickets and the sets up for grabs could easily be the centerpiece of a budding collection. At the minimum, there should be lots of great stockroom photo sharing when these sets find new homes, and hopefully some education for little Macks. Back to business. What is BigBlueDogBricks targeting for 2016 in terms of exclusives? I'm sure everyone is waiting with bated breath to see what Ol' Blue is favoring, but I'll give a little background in case you are new to my flow. This will be my fourth year dabbling in Brickvesting (yeah, I'm starting to feel a little bro-ish using that term...might have to coin something new) and I am now confident classifying myself as a solid middle tier investor. I see lots of new members posting in various forums and can only assume you might want to hear a little advice on what kind of buying someone who was once like you is preparing to do. Side anecdote: Just before Christmas I was contacted by a fellow in the Greater Toronto Area who wanted to buy a couple of large sets. We chatted back and forth and he correctly assumed that because I had so many listings I was doing this as more than a casual hobby (like someone 'accidentally' has hundreds of Lego sets for sale at the same time?) and he asked a few questions about Lego investing and such. Yeah, not much of an anecdote yet...Anyway, he tells me that along with his brother they are getting into Lego and think investing is cool. They opt not to buy any of my sets (although they were underpriced from ebay sales around 20-25%, and I sold a couple of the sets they were interested in within a week for more than what they thought was too steep) but he did end with an interesting question – so you're buying tons of Pet Shops and Tower Bridges now, right? I chuckled, because I think people often get drawn to Brickpicker and think the big shiny sets are the easiest way to get started. I am a prophet preaching Anything But Modulars now, though, as I believe there are quite a few better strategies to be successful that are faster and provide a greater overall return than simply picking the current oldest modular and throwing money at it. Worst. Strategy. Ever. So, if you are relatively new or just don't have a lot of capital to invest what should you buy from the exclusives? Well, I've ordered my 2016 picks chosen from all the sets under the 'Hard to Find' label on Shop at Home (Canada), along with a quick rundown of why it deserves that ranking. I'll be back soon to talk about large (but not exclusive) sets that are on my buy list, and finish up with a smaller sets hit list. Fun! BigBlueDogToys Anything But Modulars Buy List Order, Winter 2016, Exclusives Ewok Village 10236 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 149 in building sets I'm sure plenty of other investors have this at or near the top of their list. It is the oldest Star Wars large (not officially a UCS) set and, in case you don't know, Star Wars is totally a thing with people. They by and large seem to love it, if box office results indicate anything. It was listed as 'check back in February' for a few months (but was always available to buy at other retailers, at least in Canada) and is now listed as temporarily out of stock. Rumors have maybe three or four large Star Wars sets in the pipeline, so something seemingly has to give. I'm not advocating going crazy for a small to mid-sized investor (I have four from a flash sale from Walmart Canada) but it will probably be the first set I buy during the next double VIP + promo event. If you want to read a lot of Ewok love (or conversely a lot of Ewok hate) the dedicated thread is long and I can summarize: opinion seems divided, not much in the middle. I'm a lover, not a fighter, so these furballs are alright with me. Despite a good sales rank, it hasn't been around nearly as long as the modulars on my dishonorable mentions list so I'll let its current relative popularity slide. The S.H.I.E.L.D. Helicarrier 76042 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 344 in Building Sets A couple of whispers from far off places (Singapore, if you don't care to read the retiring soon thread religiously) have this retiring sooner rather than later. Limit is 1 from Shop at Home. It is massive. Ewoks are running circles around it according to sales rank. So why buy? Unlikely to ever be remade, I'd say, or at least not anytime soon. Difficult for small and medium-sized investors to hoard a set this large and expensive. Marvel fatigue might be setting in a bit (perhaps more of a Superheroes malaise, really) although I think the core fan base will still buy. Hasn't been around that long, but I'd still rather use double VIP to get a couple in the spring and then reevaluate. The Fairground Mixer 10244 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 840 in Building Sets Overall the worst sales rank of the sets I've chosen to focus on today, which makes me happy. Almost swapped this with the Helicarrier...consider it a toss up for me. A poor seller in a crowded Lego release schedule seems very likely to get the axe sooner rather than later. I have a couple now but would actually be quite happy to aim for double digits here. I think it is a unique kind of set and is priced well for Canada! I was happy to grab Maersk EEEs when they were sitting with the retiring soon label for months and others were buying (presumably) modulars. I've sold some of those EEEs while those that invested in other large sets are potentially still sitting on them, and I've got cash profits to put into another hidden gem. It will be interesting to see if a third carnival type set gets released this summer, or if the Friends rollercoaster (heavily rumored) and other fairground sets are released in its stead. This summer the set will turn two, it isn't a great seller at the moment and doesn't get a ton of chatter on Brickpicker. I am going to throw a little money down on this one. Or a lot. The Simpsons House 71006 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 229 in Building Sets I loved this set a couple months ago, and still love it now. Solid seller, not as flashy in sales numbers as a few other very large sets. Read more here: Sandcrawler 75059 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 285 Second oldest Star Wars UCS-type set after Ewok Village. Reasoning is largely the same as Ewok Village, as I think this won't make it to 2017, comes from a hugely popular line and looks ballin'. I nod to EV first as I am afraid the Ewoks might not make it until Q4 (a.k.a. Retirement season) but I'm willing to gamble the Sandcrawler will. Also use some Helicarrier reasoning here: massive set, big price tag and big box keeps a lot of smaller and even mid-sized investors from going too deep on it (at least most of them). There you have it – this is a shopping list of what I'd like to nab during the spring double VIP. I'm not going to panic and grab them earlier as I am reasonably confident the sets on this list will not suddenly become unavailable permanently in February, and every percent discount or promo makes me more competitive in a crowded marketplace. I'm not going to order more than one or two of each, and not in quick succession or anything crazy that would merit a ban hammer, but will spread them over a week or two as I've done every promo period in the last couple years. Honorable Mentions Volkswagen T1 – Sales rank 385. Sales number indicates perhaps (finally) a little buyer fatigue? It has been out for seemingly forever and the new box design in 2015 virtually guaranteed (at least to me) that there would still be more time in 2016 to get more (not that I need more). I'll reevaluate in a few months. Those hoping The Lego Group wouldn't want three large car models on the shelves at the same time must be gutted. Mini Cooper – Sales rank 495. Slower than the T1, so an argument could be made that it might be retired ahead of the T1, which will become the new Death Star a.k.a. Live Star. Sydney Opera House – Sales rank 412. Tower Bridge is 183. Significant difference? As far as I know, the Opera House doesn't have a new box design, while the Tower Bridge does. I'd wager this goes in 2016 and the Tower Bridge stays. Just a hunch. That being said, I personally don't like the Opera House as much as a few of the others on this list, and I don't have enough money to go 5-10 deep on every set. I can't see myself wanting/getting more than 4-5 of these. It has also been discounted in other markets which has generally been linked to sets that are on the way out. If my sales stay strong this might get some love in the next few months. Dishonorable Mentions Pet Shop – Sales rank 89. 89! That is gross. I think modulars look like easy money and lots of folks are drawn in by them, but if it keeps selling this well I'm not convinced it will even retire this fall. If you are starting out, no problem grabbing one or two, but I think it is insane to tie up too much capital here. Plenty of other sets out there that should/could retire sooner and give a cash return faster. Palace Cinema – Sales rank 145. Also gross! If the Pet Shop didn't retire, then the Cinema HAS TO, right? AMITRITE? Perhaps not. Given sales numbers, why shouldn't the Lego Group have five modulars available at the same time? As long as investors keep stocking them away, I suspect they'll retire slowly. The difficulty for me is that in a perfect world, I would have piles and piles of each set, especially exclusives but that isn't realistic. I require stock turnover and sales to drive new investment, and my success (or failure) to move stock dictates approximately what I can spend. The spring double VIP event will be a good time to add a few large sets that I hope/expect/pray will retire at some point in 2016. When each set starts doing the in and out of stock dance, I'll probably squeeze some funds together to buy some from another large retailer, but I like to get at least a couple of each targeted set from Shop at Home in the mid to late cycle of its life. If you think I should be buying more Pet Shops, sound off in the comments section! Veegs (BigBlueDogBricks)

For as long as I can remember, people have been puzzled by my interest in many things that were “for boys”, and I have been equally puzzled by why toys have a gender at all. As much as I am genetically and physically female, I have never been one to adhere to the likes and behaviors deemed appropriate to my gender. I am a builder and a creator. Both of my parents worked as computer engineers (although I used to think they worked on a train), so my brain and its nurturing were focused heavily on math and science. As a child, I liked toys that were fun to me, and I am thankful that my parents never tried to limit my curiosity and affinity based upon some societal norm. I loved jigsaw puzzles and my father’s vintage erector set, and I built elaborate homes for all of my Barbie dolls using blocks and bricks. I had a little bit of everything (partially because I grew up affluent and spoiled), but if I had to pick a favorite toy, it would be Lego. Sometimes, I did wonder why their were so few girls in my favorite Lego sets, but it never swayed my feelings I never expected to be a minority. I grew up white as can be in white suburbia, in a nice town, in a great school system getting average grades. I loved blocks, and ponies, and riding my bike. Nothing about my childhood seemed anything other than typical. It wasn't until college that my being female made me feel any different. I majored in Accounting and minored in Comp Sci at a liberal arts college with a 75% female student body. My business classes were 75% male and I was the only female in a class of 30 in my minor. Growing up, I never heard anyone say “you can’t do that because you're a girl”, so I never felt that way, but it was still a bit odd to be surrounded by men while exploring MY interests. My Lego collection (mostly Pirates, Castle and City) had a similar affliction. Though I did delight at the nuance of the rare female pirate, I never let a silly thing such as whether or not my toys were intended for girls or boys determine what I really liked. I viewed my education and intended career with the same carefree attitude, although I still remember my one female accounting professor enlightening me to the fact that only 10% of CPAs are women. Years passed. I finished school. I got a job. I got married. I started a family. I quit working 3 days before the birth of my 4th and final female child (my poor husband is plagued with daughters). At that point, I started to notice all the ways in which I am a minority. As an SAHM, I am part of only 24% of US mothers. The majority work at least part-time. I have more kids than the national average, and as a result, a minuscule net worth. The most important way that I am a minority, is because of my intelligence. According to SAT and GRE scores, I am ranked in the highest 5% of the population (among those who have taken these tests). Needless to say, after the first year at home, I got bored. Hence, I came out of my dark ages, just as my oldest decided she NEEDED the full line of Harry Potter Lego. I never much cared that Lego was "for boys". I just really liked the product. My girls and I are Lego maniacs, and I wouldn't have it any other way. Close to a year ago, I registered on BrickPicker. I read the forums, but didn't start posting until a few months ago. I had no idea I had so much to say. It was refreshing to chat with “adults”. As an AFOL, I really liked finding a place to share my thoughts instead of monopolizing the time of my local Lego Store employees. As an AFFOL (the first F stands for female), I started to notice just how very male the Lego reseller market is. As with most things, it doesn't really matter to me, but I do find it a point to ponder. I look forward to sharing with you as I explore the impact of gender on Lego sales and marketing.

In a scene from the gut-busting movie History of the World, Part 1, Mel Brooks, playing the role of Moses, brings 3 stone tablets received from the hand of God down Mt. Sinai to the people of ancient Israel. As he takes the final steps of his harrowing trip, Moses steps in front of an assembled throng and proclaims in a booming voice, “I PRESENT TO YOU THESE FIFTEEN…”, accidentally drops one of the three tablets he’s holding and quips, “Oy, ten…TEN COMMANDMENTS FOR ALL TO OBEY!” As God himself gave his fifteen laws to Mel Brooks, veteran Brickpicker members have bequeathed their own investing rules to the rest of the Brickpicker faithful. These rules can be found dotted throughout the Discussion forum, Evaluation Corner articles and Investing Blog, and they provide investors with a wide array of plausibly accurate, seemingly tried and true Lego investing truisms intended to help new investors develop their own portfolios. While these axioms usually seem plausible and well-reasoned, as I have progressed as a Lego investor I’ve found most of them needed a thorough assessment to determine their accuracy. Let’s dive into the gospel according to Brickpicker members to see what these truisms are, and whether they hold water: Commandment #1: Thou shalt buy what you like This is probably the number one piece of advice given on this website, and I’m always floored by what bad advice this could potentially be. The logic seems sound: buy what you like so if the set goes belly up in the aftermarket, you can always build the set. From a financial perspective, executing this strategy is suicide for returns from your portfolio. As a simple example, let’s assume I had the following portfolio I wanted to liquidate today: click to enlarge Portfolio return if you decide to build 8070 is [($167 + $71) – $270] / $270 = -12%. Portfolio return if you decide to sell 8070 at a loss is [($60+$167+$71) - $270] / $270 = +10% From a financial perspective, opening the box and building the set will lead to a loss for this portfolio (assuming it’s not sold as a used set). The smaller collector-investor is especially susceptible since smaller portfolios can’t absorb the loss of entire sets. For people that invest in more than one of a set, this truism poses another issue – who wants to build and display more than one copy of the same set? Buy the sets you like and build them, but keep them separate from your investment portfolio. Also, limiting your portfolio to only certain themes you like not only limits portfolio diversity, but it can limit low risk sources of profit. Barring a catastrophic economic collapse, your investment sets will always have some value and profit-driven investors will always try to squeeze as much profit out of each set to protect their portfolio’s return. This commandment is bogus. Invest in profit potential, not sets you would like to build. Commandment #2: Thou shalt purchase trains One of my first eye openers after joining BP was learning the popularity of Lego trains. Before Brickpicker, I never knew the depth of the theme: Lego trains appeared as early as 1966, and new sets have been routinely released ever since. As a kid, I always thought these trains were great toys (although I never had my own), but I only learned of their profit potential after tracking the explosive profit of the retired Maersk Train. After perusing the train forum, I was amazed at the confidence members had in recommending trains for future profit potential and decided to dig a little deeper into the performance of the secondary train market. Are BP members correct about train returns? Here are all of the retired train sets released since 2002 excluding the recently retired yellow cargo train: click to enlarge The chart above should leave no question to the merits of this theme: Lego Trains must become at least a part of any serious Lego investor’s portfolio. Almost every train set retired before 2011 has provided incredible returns, and the recently retired sets are already showing nice returns. The only apparent exception, 4534 Lego Express, has a disappointing (yet still acceptable) 25% return, but that’s likely because 4535 Lego Express Deluxe is a better version of this set (with the same cars as 4534) that was released at the same time. This commandment belongs on a Kevlar tablet and should be screamed from the top of Mt. Sinai! Commandment #3: Thou shalt not invest in City For some reason, Brickpicker members tend to be bearish on the Lego City theme. While most believe the Modular and train sets will be winners, they don’t believe in much of the rest of the theme, citing frequent updates as the primary reason to stay away. In breaking down the City theme, I found four major subthemes: Police, Fire, Vehicles, and a category of rotating subthemes that have included marina, construction, farming, airport and most recently mining. For the most part, fig-sets, vehicles and buildings account for all the sets in each of these subthemes. Within the Police and Fire lines, I did find a few winners: Police click to enlarge Fire click to enlarge Interestingly, these are the same sets investors have cautioned against investing in because of the frequent updates, yet returns from the sets are solid and fairly consistent across the board. The only outlier is 7208, but this set was just retired late last year and should be given more time to appreciate. While these sets will likely not spike in value immediately after retirement, police and fire stations appear to provide strong and steady gains while adding some diversity to your portfolio. Even more enticing are sets from rotating subthemes such as farming, mining, airport and marina sets. Consider the performance of these sets: click to enlarge Those are some great numbers from sets retired a few short years ago. Keep your eyes open for larger, more striking sets in these rotating sub-theme lines as they have the potential to deliver some sizable returns. This commandment stinks – toss this tablet in the rock pile for pulverizing. Commandment #4: Thou shalt buy Star Wars Lego sets Commandment #4a: Thou shalt buy Ultimate Collector Series sets Since its inception, the Star Wars Lego theme has drawn collectors, and they in turn have drawn investors to the theme. This commandment and its corollary seem like two variations of the same meme. Yet, after reading Ed’s Evaluation Corner article about the bottom 50 performing sets, I was shocked to learn there were some Star Wars sets among the worst losers. After digging a little deeper, I found the entire Star Wars theme sports a CAGR of 9%, just below the 11% theme average CAGR, and not as high as I would expect from the most discussed theme on Brickpicker. While everyone knows how incredible the Ultimate Collectors Series have performed, I began to wonder if the UCS subtheme wasn’t propping up the performance of the entire Star Wars theme. To determine this, I independently calculated the average annual growth rate of the Star Wars UCS subtheme and, unsurprisingly, it was an incredible 29%. For a theme that’s been around 13 years, that is phenomenal annual growth! If the UCS subtheme sets were removed from the Star Wars theme, SW’s underwhelming 9% average CAGR would drop even further. The average Star Wars set isn’t performing strongly after retirement, and investors should consider limiting Star Wars purchases for other sets. While there will always be some general Star Wars sets that will return a profit (I expect 7965 to perform well post-EOL), the true stars are Ultimate Collector Series sets. Etch commandment #4a into the tablet, and get rid of commandment #4. There is one small note of caution, however. The latest retired UCS set is 10215 Obi-Wan’s Jedi Starfighter, and early returns haven’t been strong. It’s the only UCS set with a negative CAGR and while it while likely grow, it will probably be the worst performing USC set moving forward. Commandment #5 – Thou shalt not buy Chima I went into depth in an Evaluation Corner article about the potential of the Chima line, so please read it for more specific information. To summarize, now is not the time to add Chima to your investment portfolio because retailers haven’t discounted Chima sets and the television series hasn’t begun in earnest. With the absolute earliest retirement date for the first wave of sets at the end of 2013, there will be plenty of time to purchase Chima sets. With good pre- or post-Christmas discounts, this theme will be ripe for investing if the television show takes off. This commandment remains valid for now, but could be flat-out wrong by Christmas if the TV show maintains its early ratings. Be prepared to invest. Commandment #6: Thou shalt only purchase larger sets The logic behind this truism is simple: you can gain more profit for less work by selling a few well performing larger sets rather than a large number of small sets. For the small collector-investor, this is especially true since hobby time is usually in shorter supply than work time or family time. The allure of netting big profits from larger sets is also strong - wouldn’t everyone rather hit the Powerball jackpot rather than win a prize from a scratch-off ticket? However, there are reasons to consider including small sets in your portfolio. Purchasing a variety of asset classes (or themes in Lego investing) with a variety of set sizes helps to diversify portfolio risk. Also, a higher yielding, smaller set will provide higher rates of return due its smaller cost basis, and it will always be easier to sell for the same reason assuming equivalent demand to the larger set. If you’re worried about a bubble, smaller sets will be easier to liquidate in a bear market. The tribe has spoken: this commandment should be stricken from the tablet. Commandment #7: Thou shalt measure “value” with price per piece Let’s compare the piece count, MSRP and PPP of two actual Lego sets: Set A: 1,344 pieces, $70 MSRP, $.05/piece Set B: 1,300 pieces, $150 MSRP, $.12/piece Which of the two sets is more valuable? While some would say Set A appears to provide the buyer with more value, the correct response from a seasoned investor would be that it’s impossible to answer the question with the information provided. Here is the post-retirement performance of these same sets: Set A: -$23 loss, -5% CAGR Set B: $635 profit, 14% CAGR As the example illustrates, PPP is a completely meaningless measure of value. Demand drives value; very few consumers, if any, buy a Lego set because it sports a low price per piece. I have a feeling there would be almost no Lego investor that would select 5525 Amusement Park, Set A, over 7191 Ultimate Collector Series X-Wing, Set B, to add to their investment portfolio. This commandment is erroneous and not worth the tablet it’s engraved on. Commandment #8: Thou shalt invest in licensed themes instead of non-licensed themes I have seen this truism sprinkled throughout the Discussion Forum, and was curious if it was actually true. It turns out that among themes with above average CAGR, 6 of 28, or 21%, are licensed, while, 15% of below average themes (8 of 55) are licensed. This 6% difference doesn’t provide a compelling case that licensed themes perform better, so I wouldn’t use it as a rule of thumb. A theme’s secondary market performance will be determined by its demand, not whether it’s licensed. Anyone that invested in Prince of Persia because it was a licensed theme took some real lumps. It’s also telling that 80% of themes with above average CAGR are non-licensed themes. Ninjago, Friends, and Power Miners are all very successful non-licensed themes that beat a majority of licensed themes. This commandment should not be utilized for making investment decisions. Drop that tablet. Commandment #9: Thou shalt invest in Lord of the Rings I have noticed the exuberance of many BP members for the first release of the Lord of the Rings theme, and must admit I was excited for last year’s theme release. From an investment perspective, one would think the first wave of a theme based upon the most popular fantasy epic of all time should translate to high sales and high demand, but let’s try to support this opinion through assessing a similar theme’s prior performance. Harry Potter is also theme based upon a highly popular book series, and could be considered the flagship “wizarding” epic, akin to LOTR’s position in the fantasy genre. The first wave of the HP theme was released way back in 2001, and every set performed well post-EOL: click to enlarge While the table above illustrates the incredible returns from the first year of HP released sets, there is a significant difference between the two themes’ first wave of sets. At the time of Lego’s first HP release in 2001, the Potter craze was still relatively new, and Lego was able to capitalize on the freshness and fervor of Potter-mania. Not so with LOTR: this theme was released after all three movies had already been retired to DVD. While this may temper demand for the first wave of LOTR sets slightly, I still think the large base of LOTR fans will fuel great secondary market sales of all sets of LOTR’s first wave. Additionally, the second wave of LOTR sets includes two awesome, yet-to-be released sets: Pirate Ship Ambush (a ship) and Tower of Orthanc (a mega-build with serious playability and depth). These sets alone should increase the popularity of an already successful theme and ensure the first wave of sets perform well after retirement. Chisel this commandment in stone and put it behind glass! Commandment #10: Thou shalt fear a bubble Besides Lego’s 50% discount off a certain starship, the possibility of a looming Lego investment bubble is the most hotly debated topic on Brickpicker’s Discussion Forum. I don’t want to rehash whether there may or may not be a bubble, but I do want to discuss how to insulate yourself from the fears of one. First, it should go without saying that Lego investors should always consider the RAMIFICATIONS of a bubble before succumbing to the allure of 10179-type profits and plowing a bunch of money into Lego sets. Every investor should ask themselves the following questions: What is my appetite for risk? Am I prepared to lose money? Is this a hobby or is this a job? How much time do I want to spend investing? What is my timeline for making profits? Am I in this for quick money, or long term returns? The answer to these questions should tell you the type of investor you are, and shape your investing strategy. If you have a small appetite for risk, are enjoying Lego investing as a hobby with a small time commitment, and want to make quick profits, your portfolio selections will be much different than someone with a high appetite for risk that is willing to tie their money up for a few years. Those that are risk averse, or fear a bubble, should probably keep their portfolios small for a cycle or two until they’re comfortable with how the Lego secondary market performs, and how small should depend upon your disposable income. Regardless of investment type, the happiest investors always invest with a plan tailored to their specific risk tolerance, activity level and sales duration, and adjust their plan as they learn more about the market and about themselves as investors. In the end, that’s really the only commandment that belongs on the tablet. As always, invest accordingly. *Graphic image for title came from bricktestament.com