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First time we've ever hit 100 orders in 24 hours. I'll try to grab a picture Monday before the mail pickup.

Who is this nobody you speak of...?

I love the Sea Cow more with each passing day...

Welcome to the first entry of what I would like to think of as a revamped Evaluation Corner article. The idea behind this new format is to offer a little more historical and analytical data when evaluating sets for potential investment, in a more visual way. Hopefully you will like it; be sure to add your feedback or comments! Historical & Theme Analysis The topic of this first article will be the recently released The Brick Bounty – 70413. The “Pirates” LEGO theme has become one of those recurring ones we expect to pop up in stores every few years. It really needs no explanation; kids love pirates and AFOLs really appreciate a well- designed LEGO ship. So, how has the Pirates theme performed over the course of the years when compared to some of the other “evergreen” lines? As you can see, the theme sits slightly below the average LEGO theme CAGR of 11.55%, seemingly indicating the performance of its sets has not been quite as stellar. However, it is important to mention that all of the themes showcased above have been around for a long, long time. The aggregate CAGR number is somewhat skewed negatively as time goes by and the return gets spread out over a larger period of time and more sets are added to the sample. Of course, these only highlights the performance of the theme as a whole, and while that is good information to have, we should focus our attention in the performance of pirate ships. The graph below includes all the pirate ships in the theme with over 500 pieces, excluding the Imperial Flagship. It is pretty clear that while the overall theme CAGR is not that impressive, the return on investment for these ships is the complete opposite. All of them have increased AT LEAST 100% in value, with the most recent example of 6243 Brickbeard’s Bounty. Set Analysis Realistically, I believe that 6243 is the one set that will provide more insights into the potential performance of 70413 The Brick Bounty, as the sets themselves are extremely similar. The rest of the sets in the list are either Pre-2000, or re-releases of previous versions. It is encouraging to see that LEGO decided to go with a significantly higher piece count for this newest pirate ship release. While not on the same level as the retired Pirates of the Caribbean sets, I do think that the design of the set is very appealing and the set reviews on LEGO Shop at Home seem to suggest buyers think the same. I do want to note that some people feel the “interior” of the set could have used a little more detail. Besides that, the set includes 7 standard Pirates minifigures, none of which strike me as special enough to increase the value of the set once retired. It would be nice if LEGO found a way to innovate/change the minifigures in this line; they are just too similar to previous versions. Since this set has practically just been released, it is pretty normal not to read too many comments about it in the forums. I think there will be plenty of time to acquire this set at decent discounts, and the initial price point of $99.99 already makes it appealing for the less “serious” LEGO investor. Future Performance I figured I would include some sort of forecast of where I think sets will go in the future in my articles, based on basic regression analysis and just plain trending. If nothing else, it can give some people a very high level idea of potential future performance. In this particular case, the sample is way too small to run any kind of significant regression as, in reality, there is only one set that I see as comparable to The Brick Bounty (Brickbeard’s Bounty). Still, I do believe the path of 70413 can sort of follow that of 6243, so we can still make a high level prediction of long term value. 6243 – Performance One thing to note about this graph: the points in blue are estimated, as we have no actual data points that far in the past. I estimated them based on the usual assumption that retired sets grow a lot faster over the first 2 years of retirement, and then plateau at around 4 or 5 years. All prices are assumed to be end of year. 2014 and 2015 are actual historical values from the Brickpicker Price Guide. As you can imagine, 6243 has been impacted by the release of 70413 as buyers have the option to pay retail for a set that is significantly larger than the $200 counterpart. 70413 – Projected Performance Given this information, we can come up with an estimate of what 70413 will be worth 5 years after retirement, assuming a new ship is released at some point in the fourth year. The growth of this set has been adjusted downward to try and capture the change in the market environment. Even then, we could see a CAGR of over 15% by 2022 and an increase over retail of around 120%. Final Thoughts Pirate ships hold a special place in the heart of LEGO investors and collectors alike; Not only great performers over the course of the years, but great toys and display pieces. I really think that despite the changes in the LEGO investing landscape, these well done ships will continue to produce decent results in the long run. *This is NOT investment advice. It is just my personal opinion about the set’s potential based on historical information and a set of assumptions. As with anything, past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please do your own research before making a decision. View full blog article

Finally picked up a Sandcrawler last night with a bunch of VIP's and GBH. Got the cost below $200.

Went on a tour of BN in 2 states bought up all the UN with the 30% off coupon 10% membership and $50 rolling GCs came out to $23 each.

A few things over the past 24 hours... To much to list but tis the season!!

I think TLG know as well as anyone else that this year's demand was only there because of investors predicting eol. I would be shocked if this level of sales are sustained post Christmas if it survives the retirement period. Add to that the fact that there are 2 new modulars coming up of which the FH is MASSIVE. This one is definitely going this year. But don't expect much returns on investment for a few years.

I am sure the bosses of Galeria-Kaufhof will be wondering about that soon too!

If hydra smash stays sold out, quicksilver exclusive to that set I'm pretty sure. Short life if you want all the avengers from second movie

I'm at a big grown up party right now and just shot a Jack & Coke out my nose. Thanks for that.

Haven't posted in a while, and was running out of things to build. Went on a building frenzy and built all this in the past week! Can't seem to load the other pics. Other sets built are Eiffel Tower, Space Needle, Vader, Grievous, Obi-Wan figures, finally the Gingerbread house.

I love your bickering, you're like a married couple

Offcourse Mr. Black Bounty.

Not until Tuesday 12/1 15% off

Got my five yesterday, and they're all sold already at $24 each (includes shipping).

And about a year of shelf life...

3 x AT-AT from Meijer for $67 ea.

I see this one doing really well. But watch your buy-in people. As always... as low as can be.

That was asking for a pancake. Anything packed with the DS will get crushed. It isn't the Death Star for nothing.

x2 $40 GBH x3 $24 Target Minifgure Cube x1 $65 Ninjago Golden Dragon x1 $60 Coast Guard Plane x1 $12 Springtime Scene All on eBay, all shipped

Valid. Dcd is on the ball. And clearly agrees with me. But who else? This set pops up on the forum discussion about as often as a south African meerkat pops up on the frozen tundra.

I've had it for over a year.

QFLLer. Very disappointed

Is it facing south by any chance?

Got my SOH from AWD in the mail. Was described as "very good" but was still factory sealed with what I'd call minor creasing and denting. Not bad at all for $260 with 10% back.

36 RE

I always like to keep the freebies boxed away for a few years and bury them. This year I stumbled upon 100 of 40082 that I got when buying 10229 at the end of Oct 2013 from LEGO Shop at Home. Sold all of them for $60 on amazon and netted $50 each. 10229 did pretty well too

My Black Friday weekend haul. The CT were from a week before but got the last bit in the mail this week. Each sealed box contains 2 CT. Gotta take this photo before most of the CT get ship out this week.

You derail more than the Constitution Train.....

Wow I just got my copy of your book still 50% off at Amazon and with Sunday delivery. I just paged thru it and it is a must buy for any Arch fan and/or builder. Great hardcover with awesome pics but what I did not know was the building instructions and techniques reviewed. This book will definetly have you wanting to pop the seals on an Arch studio. If you are looking for a gift idea to give and/or get for you or an AFOL the book and an Arch studio would be amazing. Use promo code Holiday30 for an additional 30% off just grabbed another for $8.73 and choose no rush shipping for a $1 credit

from time to time, it appears lego adds a sticker to correct stuff. i have a set that has a black sticker covering the set info below the set # on the box front

Hello Phil, Well, I'm pretty much thinking along your lines (also recently got into part-outing) and I believe there is decent profit to be made especially in sets with limited appeal design wise but stunning parts selection (Arctic Base Camp for instance). The important thing with parting out sets, as a beginner at least, is having variety of parts. So, diversify, you'll build quantities later. That being said, ofc buy as many 10697 towers as you can, these are no-brainer. Bear in mind that what sells most on BL are plates, LBG, DBG, black, white then others. And try to buy your sets accordingly. As for your strategy question, I would part all of the sets you mentioned except 3 or 4 Coruscant Gunships, that I would keep sealed. This is the last CW set released, has a stunning Ahsoka figure (the other one with the same figure is the highly unnoticed 75013 Umbaran MHC) and 2 exclusive shock troopers! Not to mention it is a TRU exclusive, so not widely available. I personally believe it might have a high resell potential, but am also looking forward to opinion of other more experienced members. And of course DO-NOT-PART-OUT Gingerbread House! These will be (already are) selling like hotcakes. Well, my 0.02$ at least, hopefully others will chime in

I bought that set for my son for christmas… I personally have never seen it built, and know little about what i'm about to delve into with it. But, judging from the brickshow's comments, they stated it was one of the best technical sets they ever built, and the designer needed a raise. So, i'll take that as it may. But, the question remains, what type of sets in the fairground theme are they going to build next? I think a giant swing is a given, how about one of those viking ships that goes upside down… clearly there are many more. A roller coaster? Don't know. It will be interesting to see how big this line could go. So, until the line gets to 6 or 7 sets, I think there should still be a little trepidation in going deep on any of these, really.

1x SC Looking forward to new sets next year, burned out on current..

2 x 2014 & 2015 Minifigure Cubes - $55 each on EBay 41068 - Arendelle Castle Celebration - $105 FBM Lots of Mixels Series 3 sets - $50 - $55 FBM

Two sea cows from target deal showed up. Perfect shape in a big box, plenty of air pillows, which will be recycled into my outgoing sales. If they all show up this way I will be a happy exclusives camper.

Stop complaining you!

This could go in the complaint thread too. When you are forced to raise the prices on your items just because you want to have a peaceful weekend with the family. I'm going out of town for a family Thanksgiving and today has been a little hectic with fulfilling orders. Not a day off at all. Still churning stuff out into the evening. This gig is a blessing and a curse.

I'll go ahead and apologize now. I contacted Anonymous to take care of all the Chinese counterfeit LEGO sellers on eBay.

Cafe

I built the Black Seas Barracuda today. Well, over the past week. I bought this on CL along with about 8 other pirate sets from the same era, and some LOTR sets. I got them all for $45. Total score, I have the box to Barracuda, and instructions for the dozen or so sets. The build was pretty fun. The old skool techniques are a bit painful compared to newer sets. One major difference is the instructions. The entire set was just 28 steps in the manual. I feel like a set this size would easily be 2 big manuals by todays standards. They packed in a lot of changes into each step. I had to backtrack MANY times because I missed something. There is no highlighting or diagrams for which parts will be used in the step. The minifigures are pretty cool, I can picture some good imaginative play with the blue vs red capped pirates. The interior details are very poor. There is a whole roof section that is hinged, that just reveals a simple treasure box. Very lack-lustre compared to the BP or QAR interiors. But the colors are pretty cool. I need to flatten my sails for sure, but I wanted to snap a quick pic with the finished product. I'm missing a few pieces that I hope are fairly common. If there are any classic pirate system fans out there, shoot me a PM if you are interested, I'm going to put it up for sale as soon as I get the spare parts.

The boy got some excellent grades so i let him open 2 sets and he picked my 2 scooby sets (tears). Got to rethink my incentive program.

Something has to retire. LEGO can't fit them all in their stores and warehouses. We are entering prime EOL season.

If you want a "WOW" factor for Market Street, just look at the numbers it has put up, and many don't even consider it a part of the Modular series. No, it's not as big as the others, but it and Cafe Corner started the whole thing and that's why it's putting up the numbers it does. FM "could" be that type of set. Not a "Wow" set, but since it was the first of the line in what may be bigger and better carnival sets, it will be able to hold its own. Now, if after Ferris Wheel we don't see another of this ilk, I have lesser hopes for it because as you say, I truly doesn't impress at first glance, though it is a building wonder for how they fit it all together.

Finished the PC today. Used the custom Star Wars movie posters. Turned out nice.

Did you do commingled inventory? It would seem that this should not happen if you don't do commingled inventory because everything you send in has its own unique bar code. I have a set that was returned and Amazon declared it "defective" for some reason. I have seen "customer damaged" so I'm curious what is their definition of "defective" for a LEGO set.