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An image of the first polybag to go with the new LEGO Nexo Knights line to be released in 2016 has made it's way online. 30371 Knight's Cycle polybag, with Royal Soldier minifigure will be released sometime in 2016. As you can see from the image, included will be a blue soldier with a jousting lance, riding some sort of cycle with stud shooters. Very reminiscent of a jousting scene from other LEGO Castle themes. In keeping with the mix of historic castle and futuristic space of the Nexo Knights theme, you can see how the two have been mixed together. No information has been released yet on the release date or availability of this polybag. For those that enjoy MOC'ing, it should be easy to recreate this in other color schemes. The Nexo Knights will appear in colors other than blue, and the primary pieces in the image above that are in blue can easily be changed to other common colors. For an investment perspective, this is the first polybag of the line. Since the line has received a lukewarm reception from some in the investment community, it remains to be seen whether there will be an significant appreciation in this polybag, or if this will be easily gobbled up for pennies on the dollar. You can discuss Nexo Knights with other BrickPicker.com forum members here. Image from Brickset.com and user CM4Sci on Eurobricks.

It is pretty amazing that we are less than 3 months from the release of the first film of the new Star Wars trilogy: The Force Awakens. After George Lucas completed the much criticized, nonetheless enjoyable, prequels, I had come to the sad realization that we might never have another original Star Wars film. Sure, we would have the occasional mini series and other smaller productions, but nothing that would really catch my attention in the same way the feature films had done up to that point. All of this changed when Disney acquired Lucas’ intellectual property and Star Wars rights for a record financial amount. Surely, the company would not be spending that much capital without any plans to take advantage of the brand and continue expanding its universe. Sure enough, Disney announced the release of a new trilogy just as they announced the acquisition of Lucasfilms. But enough of that, we are a LEGO focused website after all. Star Wars has been one of the keys in TLG outstanding rebirth and rise as the largest toy manufacturer in the world. Along with some important managerial and strategic changes, the introduction of licensed themes gave a much-needed push to the company as younger customers growing up with Harry Potter, the SW prequels and the re-release of the Original Trilogy were able to build their favorite vehicles and scenes in their own living room. Furthermore, the release of the Ultimate Collectors’ Series gave LEGO access to the Adult Fan of LEGO (AFOL), the most attractive demographic in the market. It is no surprise then that with the announcement of a new Star Wars trilogy the company has already released the first wave of sets based on the Force Awakens. While I will attempt to go over the investment attractiveness of these sets, I would like to quickly go over the historical performance of the theme and the potential impact the new movies will have on already retired and to be released sets based on the first six movies. The following graph shows the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of some of the LEGO themes that have been released so far. The table is longer than this, but you can see the complete version here: http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/cagrbytheme.cfm You might be surprised to see that the Star Wars theme sits well below the average at 8.78 percent, with themes such as Toy Story and other unpopular ones well above it. However, you have to remember that the number of sets released under the Star Wars license is close, if not above, 500, and it is one of the few themes that have been produced for over a decade. My point is, the theme CAGR is probably skewed negatively by these factors. It is also important to note that while the most iconic sets like the Ultimate Collector’s Series and other very unique sets have done extremely well, the Star Wars theme also comes with a large number of duds, in part because several remakes have been released; but also because a majority of the sets have been on a smaller scale and price point. Of course, we also have sets such as the 9493 X-Wing, 6210 Sail Barge (before the remake) and others that have succeeded in the secondary market without being part of the UCS. As with any other theme, it is a matter of forecasting which sets will be attractive or scarce in the future. Not an easy task by any stretch of the imagination. So, what will be the impact of the new movies on these previously released sets? That’s somewhat hard to tell, but I will throw my theory out there. Whether the new movies are great, ok or just mediocre, I believe that they will serve as a push for newer generations to get more acquainted with the Star Wars universe. Pretty much like when the prequels were released, the newer movies will create new Star Wars fans that will in turn go back and watch every single one of the previous movies. Basically, I believe that the very existence of these newer movies will create an increase in demand for both Original Trilogy and, to a lesser extent, the Prequels. I wanted to finish this article with a short analysis of the first wave of The Force Awakens sets. While it is extremely hard to predict the popularity of these sets without gauging the impact and popularity of the movie itself, I think we can make an educated guess based on previous patterns. Rey’s Speeder "Hover into action on Rey's Speeder™! This cool landspeeder has everything Rey needs for scouting the surface of a desert planet, including dual stud shooters, opening storage hatch and side-mounted bag, blaster, buzzsaw and electrobinoculars. There’s also a detachable sled with space for a minifigure when Rey must make a quick escape down the desert dunes! Recreate your own fantastic scenes from Star Wars™: The Force Awakens. Includes 2 minifigures: Rey and Unkar’s Thug with a crowbar. Includes 2 minifigures: Rey and Unkar’s Thug with a crowbar Rotate the engine to open the storage hatch Grab the side-mounted accessories Unhitch the sled and get ready for an adrenaline-filled sandsurf! Recreate fantastic scenes from Star Wars: The Force Awakens The perfect addition to any LEGO® Star Wars collection Measures over 3” (9cm) high, 5” (14cm) long and 1” (5cm) wide” My analysis The smallest set in the first wave really reminds me of, wait for it, Luke’s Landspeeder. It features one of the main characters of the film (Rey), similar piece count and similar price point. As in the OT version, I think that the potential gains for this set are severely limited, especially since Rey’s minifigure is not even exclusive to this set in the 1st wave AND we are sure to see it again on future sets. On a more personal note, I don’t really like the speeder design at all either. First Order Snowspeeder "Call in weaponized support with the First Order Snowspeeder™! With a crew of three, this rapid response vehicle features a forward storage compartment, fixed stud shooter in the cockpit, two rapid-fire stud shooters built into the engines and transparent wheels hidden out of site for a true ‘hover’ look. Now you can recreate your own great scenes from Star Wars™: The Force Awakens. Includes 3 minifigures with assorted weapons: 2 First Order Snowtroopers and a First Order Snowtrooper Officer. Includes 3 minifigures with assorted weapons: 2 First Order Snowtroopers and a First Order Snowtrooper Officer Features storage compartment, cockpit-mounted stud shooter, rapid-fire shooters and hidden wheels Weapons include 2 blasters and a modified blaster Man the stud shooter and get ready to fire! Looks like it really hovers! Rotate the engines and fire the rapid-fire stud shooters Recreate fantastic scenes from Star Wars: The Force Awakens The perfect addition to anyLEGO® Star Wars collection Collect 75102 Poe's X-Wing Fighter for even more intense ice-planet battle action! Measures over 3” (10cm) high, 8” (22cm) long and 6” (16cm) wide" My Analysis This is probably my least favorite set of the whole line. It seems a little overpriced for what it includes, a not so attractive vehicle and 3 pretty generic minifigures you would rather see in a battle pack type set. I do not have high hopes for this particular set. First Order Transporter "Lower the ramp, load the troopers and get ready to transport them into battle! This heavily armored First Order Transporter™ is packed with cool features, like dual spring-loaded shooters, top-mounted dual-stud shooter and hatch with space for a minifigure, pilot cabin with opening hatch and space for 4 minifigures in the hold, big engines at the rear, and hidden, transparent wheels for a cool ‘hover’ look. You can also remove the top section for easy access. Get ready to recreate incredible battle scenes from Star Wars™: The Force Awakens! Includes 7 minifigures with assorted weapons and accessories: 2 Resistance Soldiers, 2 First Order Flametroopers, 2 First Order Stormtroopers and Captain Phasma. Includes 7 minifigures with assorted weapons and accessories: 2 Resistance Soldiers, 2 First Order Flametroopers, 2 First Order Stormtroopers and Captain Phasma Features dual spring-loaded shooters, top-mounted stud shooter, pilot cabin with opening hatch and space for a minifigure, hold with space for 4 minifigures, big engines at the rear, removable top section, and hidden, transparent wheels for a ‘hovering’ look Weapons include 2 blasters, silver-look blaster, titanium-look blaster and 2 flamethrowers Accessories include 6 helmets Turn the gear to lower the ramp Remove the top for easy access Looks like it really hovers! Recreate fantastic scenes from Star Wars: The Force Awakens The perfect addition to any LEGO® Star Wars collection Measures over 5” (15cm) high, 12” (31cm) long and 5” (13cm) wide" My Analysis The First Order Transporter’s main appeal is the minifigure selection, including Captain Phasma. The other 6 minifigures make it a great set for army building and possible parting out candidate; having said that, I do not see it appreciating too much unless the Captain Phasma minifigure remains exclusive to the set. Too early to tell, but the vehicle itself is just not appealing to me. Kylo Ren’s Command Shuttle "Enter the battle with Kylo Ren’s personal Command Shuttle™! This fantastic, highly detailed starship has loads of features, including opening front, rear and bottom storage bays; wing-mounted, spring-loaded shooters and detachable weapon racks. And when you’re ready for even more action, activate the amazing extending wing function! It’s time to hunt down the enemy and play out your own great scenes from Star Wars™: The Force Awakens! Includes 6 minifigures with assorted weapons and accessories: Kylo Ren, General Hux, First Order Officer, 2 First Order Crew and a First Order Stormtrooper Officer. Includes 6 minifigures with assorted weapons and accessories: a Kylo Ren, General Hux, First Order Officer, 2 First Order Crew and a First Order Stormtrooper Officer Features opening front, rear and bottom storage bays; wing-mounted, spring-loaded shooters and detachable weapon racks, and amazing extending wing function Weapons include 2 blaster pistols, blaster and Kylo Ren’s Lightsaber Accessories include 4 helmets and an electrobinoculars element Activate the amazing extending wingfunction! Launch the spring-loaded shooters! Access the storage bays Rearm with the detachable weapon racks Recreate fantastic scenes from Star Wars: The Force Awakens The perfect addition to any LEGO® Star Wars collection Measures over 11” (28cm) high, 8” (22cm) long and 7” (20cm) wide with wings retracted, and over 15” (40cm) high with wings extended" My Analysis Somewhat similar is shape to the OT Imperial Shuttle, Kylo Ren’s transport currently gets the honor of being the only set in this first release to include one of the most popular characters of TFA. Who?, well, Kylo Ren obviously. The figure currently sells for more than $30, including is cool looking lightsaber. Besides that, the set also includes General Hux and a pretty decent number of First Order troopers. First Order Special Forces Tie Fighter "Intercept the enemy with the impressive First Order Special Forces TIE fighter™. The unmistakable shape of this iconic starfighter signifies the military might of the First Order, and features a 2-minifigure cockpit that opens from the top and bottom, 2 spring-loaded shooters and a rotating antenna for homing in on enemy starships. With this great model, you can recreate the epic excitement of Star Wars™: The Force Awakens. Includes 4 minifigures with assorted weapons and accessories: 2 First Order TIE Fighter Pilots, First Order Officer and a First Order Crew. Includes 4 minifigures with assorted weapons and accessories: 2 First Order TIE Fighter Pilots, First Order Officer and a First Order Crew Features iconic design, 2-minifigure opening cockpit, 2 spring-loaded shooters and a rotating antenna Weapons include 3 blaster pistols Accessories include 2 helmets Open the cockpit and load up the crew Rotate the antenna and track the enemy Load the shooters and prepare to fire! Iconic design Recreate fantastic scenes from Star Wars: The Force Awakens The perfect addition to any LEGO® Star Wars collection Measures over 9” (23cm) high, 7” (20cm) long and 7” (18cm) wide" My Analysis Not really sure what to think about this set. It is basically a traditional TIE Fighter with a different color scheme, around 100 more pieces and 4 decent minifigures for close to $15 more than the previous TIE (9492). That set is doing relatively well in the secondary market, even after several refreshes, so I guess this one could have a similar performance once retired. However, the minifigure selection is not one that I would consider outstanding. Poe’s X-Wing Fighter "Battle the forces of the First Order with Poe's X-Wing Fighter™. This customized starfighter is packed with features, like the 4 spring-loaded shooters, 2 stud shooters, retractable landing gear, opening wings, opening cockpit with space for a minifigure and space behind for the BB-8 Astromech Droid. There’s even a loader with weapon rack, extra missiles and ammunition, and a seat for a minifigure. So climb the access ladder, strap in and get ready to recreate your own great scenes from Star Wars™: The Force Awakens! Includes 3 minifigures with assorted weapons and accessories: Poe Dameron, Resistance ground crew and a Resistance X-Wing Pilot, plus a BB-8 Astromech Droid. Includes 3 minifigures with assorted weapons and accessories: Poe Dameron, Resistance ground crew and a Resistance X-Wing Pilot, plus a BB-8 Astromech Droid Features Poe's X-Wing Fighter, loader and an access ladder X-Wing Fighter features 4 spring-loaded shooters, 2 stud shooters, retractable landing gear, opening wings, opening cockpit with space for a minifigure and space behind for the BB-8 Astromech Droid Loader features a weapon rack, missiles, ammunition and a seat for a minifigure Weapons include 2 blaster pistols and a wrench Accessories include 3 helmets Open the wings and get ready for combat! Resupply with the loader Fire up the engines, retract the landing gear and launch! Iconic design Recreate fantastic scenes from Star Wars: The Force Awakens The perfect addition to any LEGO® Star Wars collection Play out exciting snow-planet battles against the 75100 First Order Snowspeeder Measures over 4” (11cm) high, 14” (37cm) long and 12” (32cm) wide with wings open and over 3” (8cm) high with wings closed" My Analysis Definitely my second favorite set of the whole release. This newer version of the X-Wing is much more different from the previous than the TIE Fighter, and it also includes Poe Dameron, and BB-8. While I believe that BB-8 will be as easy to find in sets as R2 was in OT sets, the inclusion of Poe and the unique look of the ship will in my opinion boos demand for this set once the movie is released. Millenium Falcon "One of the most iconic starships of the Star Wars™ saga is back, and it’s leaner and meaner than ever before! As featured in exciting scenes from Star Wars: The Force Awakens, this latest LEGO® version of the Millennium Falcon™ is crammed with new and updated external features, including an even more streamlined and detailed design, detachable cockpit with space for 2 minifigures, rotating top and bottom laser turrets with hatch and space for a minifigure, dual spring-loaded shooters, sensor dish,ramp and an entrance hatch. Open up the hull plates to reveal even more great new and updated details inside, including the main hold with seating area and holochess board, more detailed hyperdrive, secret compartment, extra boxes and cables, and storage for spring-loaded shooter ammo. And of course no LEGO Millennium Falcon model would be complete without Han Solo and Chewbacca, as well as other great characters from Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Activate the hyperdrive and set course for LEGO Star Wars fun! Includes 6 minifigures with assorted weapons: Rey, Finn, Han Solo, Chewbacca, Tasu Leech and a Kanjiklub Gang Member, plus a BB-8 Astromech Droid. Includes 6 minifigures with assorted weapons: Rey, Finn, Han Solo, Chewbacca, Tasu Leech and a Kanjiklub Gang Member, plus a BB-8 Astromech Droid Exterior features streamlined and detailed design, detachable cockpit with space for 2 minifigures, rotating top and bottom laser turrets with hatch and space for a minifigure, dual spring-loaded shooters, sensor dish, ramp, entrance hatch and opening hull plates Detailed interior includes a more detailed hyperdrive, holochess board, secret compartment, extra boxes and cables, and storage for spring-loaded shooter ammo Weapons include a blaster pistol, silver-colored blaster pistol, blaster, gang pistol, gang rifle and a bowcaster Lift the hull plates and check out the detailed interior Become a make-believe holochess master! Detach the cockpit Fire the dual spring-loaded shooters Hide weapons and other cargo in the secret compartment Pretend to activate the hyperdrive and make a fast getaway! Recreate fantastic scenes from Star Wars: The Force Awakens" My analysis Not at all unexpected, LEGO remade this set for TFA wave with some slight modifications. The Millenium Falcon is the most iconic set of the entire SW universe, and the performance of the previous version, even though it has been retired for only a relatively short period of time, indicates that this should share a similar fate. Of course, you can also plan for it to last a long, long time on the shelves. Excellent minifigure selection, including Old Han Solo. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I went a little longer than I would have liked, but I hope this pretty rough look of the first wave of Force Awakens sets was interesting and helpful to you. Once the movie is released and interest can be gauged more accurately, it might be good to come back and revise some of my comments. Thanks for reading!

The LEGO Christmas Train (40138), which was a free gift with purchase of $99 or more is no longer available at LEGO Shop at Home in the US. It appears to have sold out sometime overnight. The train was the first of two holiday free gift with purchase sets for 2015, with the Gingerbread House (40139) available starting November 27 (Black Friday). The Holiday Train promotion ran from October 13 until November 13, or until supplies ran out, which appears to have happened with about 8 days remaining. Product should still be available at retail Lego Stores for at least a few more days. The promotion runs until November 20 (or until supplies run out) in the UK. The Christmas Train is currently seeing purchase prices of $18-$25 on eBay. Expect that prices could go up as stock dwindles, and word of the sold out status at Shop at Home travels. Prices could continue to rise as the Gingerbread House debuts later this month, and sellers pair the sets together. 2014 Holiday sets are a mixed bag, as the first Holiday set, 40106 Elves Toy Shop - which pairs nicely with 10245 Santa's Workshop - is currently valued at $30. Meanwhile, 40107 Ice Skating, is currently valued at $18. Ice Skating was not a fan favorite, which could explain its lackluster value.

There is one thing LEGO investors and resellers fear more than getting banned from Shop at Home: set re-releases. As you all know, LEGO production runs for a particular set is limited to a period between a few months to several years. Once the set hits the end of its life, investors expect never to see that set again at retail price and reap the benefits of secondary market demand and price increases. While in the vast majority of cases this is the norm, every once in a while LEGO decides it is time to bring a previously released set back into the primary market. Re-releases are usually improved versions of the previous set including new building techniques, pieces and exclusive minifigures. While the re-birth of previously retired sets can bring happiness to collectors that previously missed out, the opposite is usually true when it comes to investors. The possibility of buying a newer version for retail diminishes the need for collectors to pay higher secondary market prices, resulting in a decrease in demand and the expected price decrease. Investors dump the old set quickly in order to secure a small profit or to cut their losses; market reaches equilibrium. Up until fairly recently, re-releases had been limited to smaller or mid-range play sets like Jabba’s Sail Barge. The impact of the newer version is easily observed in the graph below: While this kind of issue annoyed re-sellers, it was what came after that really started worrying them: the re-release of an Ultimate Collector’s Series set; the 10240 X-Wing. Somewhat different from the original model, this was LEGO’s first attempt to re-releasing one of the largest and most expensive sets in the secondary market. This issue has hurt the original version, 7191, significantly over the last couple of years; a 2 year and 1 year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of -4.27 and -25.34 percent respectively according to the latest Brickpicker data. Despite the negative impact of the newer release, the original UCS X-Wing is still up over 500 percent of its original retail price. The serious collector is more than likely the source of demand for this set at the moment, which coupled with the relative scarcity has provided a price floor for 7191. After the re-release of a UCS set, LEGO had opened the door to similar actions in the future. A lot of investors commented that this would be the beginning of the end of LEGO investing the way we knew it, and decided to make adjustments to their long-term investment strategy. Enter the Winter Village holiday theme, one of the most admired and popular production lines in LEGO’s arsenal. So far, LEGO has consistently released one new set per year on this line, while keeping no more than 2 on the shelves in any particular holiday season. Consequently, LEGO retires one Winter Village themed set per year, making it one of the most easily predictable retirements out there. As investors, you can quickly understand why something like this would be appealing: shorter production runs limited to a few months of each year, somewhat concrete retirement dates and huge popularity with collectors are factors we all would like to see more when investing in LEGO. Not surprisingly, the performance of the Winter Village theme has been quite stellar, as you can easily tell from the charts below: Those are not only some really nice looking sets, but also pretty good investment returns. Now, the real issue: LEGO recently announced the new release for this year’s holiday season, the Winter Village Toy Shop (2.0). From the pictures, you can see that in this case the company took re-releases to a whole new level by only slightly changing the previous model. Basically, we ended up with the same exact set as 2009 with very minimal cosmetic alterations, in addition to suggesting to move the Christmas tree to the complete opposite side of the display. If you are a frequent visitor to the site’s forums, you will remember the uproar this release caused with investors and collectors alike. On one hand, it hurt investors that still held the previous version, while on the other it hugely disappointed collectors that expected to be able to add a new structure to their Winter Village town. What immediately followed the announcement was not really hard to predict: dozens of new listings for 10199 popped up on eBay and other selling venues from sellers trying to realize their gains. The priced dropped very quickly, as sellers undercut each other hoping to get rid of the inventory way before the newer Toy Shop hit the shelves in a couple weeks. Why would LEGO do this with so many different potential buildings that still can be added to the Winter Village town? I can think of a few potential reasons: The Winter Village Toy Shop is perhaps the most popular set of the entire WV line. The sales numbers on eBay seem to indicate that the Toy Shop sells the best in the entire line, with the Winter Village Bakery being a close second. LEGO determined that demand for a Toy Shop release increased with the release of last year’s Santa’s Workshop. Collectors that purchased the set last year may now be more likely to purchase a place for all of those freshly made toys to be sold. Being the older of the WV sets, the company determined it to be cost effective to bring it back with a few modifications and focus their efforts on other popular lines. Think Episode VII sets coming in the next few months. We probably will never know the actual reasons executives at TLG decided to go with a re-release instead of a completely new concept, but the reasons above make some sense to me. Now, does this mark the beginning of the end of the Winter Village line excellent secondary market performance? I honestly don’t believe so. Rarely we will find another theme that is so easily predictable as far as production runs and retirement dates, and even if LEGO re-released every single set every 4 years, by that time most of the post EOL price appreciation would have taken place anyway. The key with this line will be, in my opinion, to hold the sets for a shorter time period, say 2 years, and sell to realize the gains. Why run the risk of this happening again when we already have proof that LEGO is willing to bring the older sets back? Thanks for reading.