I tend to only invest in LOTR/Hobbit, Architecture, and some Star Wars. I'm convinced this series is going to do well long term - key word is long term. Most of the LOTR sets will definitely do better than most of the Hobbit sets, but both will fair well. Fact is that these sets like HD, Weathertop, Mines of Moria only started drying up in the retail stores around fall of last year. Many that grabbed these expecting to make double the profit within months after a set gets scare are probably folding their cards too early. Having something shoot up right away is not how it works in the collection market, unless it's some extremely hot fad, or some rare item that is very hard to find. Most fads tend to crash, and I don't' see the LOTR/Hobbit as a fad - these movies have a huge built in following. Let's not sugar coat it - they are big films, and this series has been out for over a decade. The Lone Ranger film is not even on the same level - as that was a universally loathed film and I don't know many people that think that was a great movie. That's not the case with the LOTR and Hobbit films.
I'm willing to sit on a majority of mine for a few years (more than 3 years). To me, this is just a hobby, and not a job, and i'm convinced that those that hold their cards will do well 3 to 4 years from now after many get out of the game and the sets become more distributed from resellers to consumers. I have the space, and love LOTR and the Hobbit films - so i'm one of those that is convinced of the product.. When the ToO, and TLM goes, i'm not selling a single one of mine within the first couple of years after it goes off of the big retail sites, unless things really start to tank, and even then i'll be hesitant. I think people will want a HD, and ToO to build many years from now, and I don't ever see many of these main sets falling below retail now that they are nearing the end. It's amazing to me when I go on ebay and see 100's of listing on a certain set that just dried out in retail stores, and there's a plethora of pricing structures. Because it has yet to become scarce, there are those that freak because it's not selling at double and triple what they want, so they end up posting it either at retail or barely above retail to get out. And yet, the interesting thing is all the sets with the cheapest prices (mostly at what they retailed for) sell right away - so obviously the demand is there, the market is just resetting in this end of life era that has yet to fully set. While many of them were bought at discount, to me making 20.00 is not worth it just yet. I'm in the game for the long term, not the short term. I'm going to hold my cards, because i'm convinced these films hold up, and there is a fan base, and these sets are pretty darn cool and fun. ToO, TLM, HD, Weathertop, Mines of Moria, and Unexpected Gatherings are going to do well. I personally, have spent my time and money stocking up on some of these sets over the red 5's and modulars, because I think long term they'll be the better bet. While SW sets are re-released continuously, these sets will not. There will be another UCS x-wing, and another UCS millennium falcon, etc. The LOTR sets are more scarce. Personally, I even think sets like Attack of the Wargs, Mirkwood Spiders, and the Dol Guldur sets have a lot of built in playability, and will also do well as an investment too. My little boy has quite a few of the hobbit and LOTR sets, and he plays with them a bit. So, i'm not sure where all the skepticism comes from. I think you will see HD go to 300.00. It just won't be this year. Next year? Well, it could. Especially as many more sell off their horde. Thats really what it comes down to - sets becoming more scarce. The paint hasn't truly dried on this line yet.