I'm all about ordering just before EOL, but I don't want to be caught, either. Look at the Research Institute set. TLG said they would make more of the RI, and oh yes they did, but I was only able to recently order one, and the next day it went to officially sold out.
While there is a possibility that this Tumbler set will be available all through 2015, there's also the possibility that its availability will be very limited to most people (not everyone has a Lego store they can drive to), similar to the RI and the Exo-Suit. I rely on Toys R Us (shipping and local store) and LEGO Shop at Home for all of my Lego. If too many people continue to order this set, it will still be hard to get all the way through to its EOL.
The real problem is, like with 41999 Technic Crawler, how many of the sales Lego has for this set are to end-user collectors/builders, and how many are strictly flippers/investors? If this set is selling like hotcakes at LEGO Shop at Home and 90% of those sales are to flippers and investors, what happens when EOL comes and now there are hundreds or thousands on the market?
I can say from first-hand experience I've watched a collector's market go from what LEGO is currently at, to implosion, within 18 months. I'm not talking about some dinky figurine market, I'm talking about a multi-billion dollar market. 18 months ago most of our customers (90%+) were collectors, but overnight we experienced a surge of flippers. This irritated a lot of collectors, as they were not able to get the item they wanted before its price going up in the aftermarket, and it selling out. Flippers would even buy from other flippers in an attempt to corner the market.
It all came to a halt this spring when the manufacturer started increasing the number of each item made, due to the "increased demand", which was actually artificial. Flippers are not end users (consumers), and therefore, do not add to the number of total consumers. An item that normally would have 5,000 made, but now has 10,000 or 15,000 made because 100 flippers who bought 50 each in an attempt to corner the market will never be able to sell those 5,000 pieces as the end users don't exist in those numbers. Not now, not ever.
I see a lot of parallels between what I've seen in the market and what's happening with LEGO and what has happened in the market where I work. I wrote a bit of the same sort of commentary a year ago with regards to the 41999 Technic Crawler, and I still see it more and more each day I look. Based on the current sales and the supply of this set on BrickLink, 41999 will never be above $400 and is actually trending downwards at the moment. Look at BrickLink sales over the past 6 months. A total of 57 have sold in 6 months, and currently there are 252 for sale. Even at the steady rate of sale, that's over 2 years of supply that remains.
I'm not saying Lego investing is a bad idea, but you do have to pick your battles, especially now. You have to be really smart about it. Sets like the Town Hall going EOL caught people off guard. There will be others. The sets that catch people off guard (the sleepers) will be worth the most when there are few investors/flippers who bought them up. But only if there are end-user customers for them.
Locutis