Do retired boxes count in our prediction speculation? If so, I am doing quite well this year.

The new box art from the T1 means it'll be around for many years yet. Expect new box art for the PS any day now as they've done with the PC.

This is quite possible. 

But I still maintain my EOL prediction. Now I need it to go EOL to prove me right or wrong.

Of course this extra long life means I keep put off buying any. I only have 3, plus a display one.

So, what it means? New boxes. Lego is playing funny games.

So, what it means? New boxes. Lego is playing funny games.

Honestly I think there is a very real possibility that new boxes have nothing to do with what is retiring and what they will produce more of in the future.  The new boxes are for the Creator line only as far as I can tell.  So TLG has a new Creator logo design and they want uniformity in their Creator sets; the sets they just released and the sets they are about to retire. Not a big deal.

 I don't think TLG is saying to itself: "we have to produce x thousand more of x sets (Tower Bridge, Palace Cinema, T1, etc) because we just changed our logo!"  I think they will go EOL at the exact same times as they otherwise would have.

Honestly I think there is a very real possibility that new boxes have nothing to do with what is retiring and what they will produce more of in the future.  The new boxes are for the Creator line only as far as I can tell.  So TLG has a new Creator logo design and they want uniformity in their Creator sets; the sets they just released and the sets they are about to retire. Not a big deal.

 I don't think TLG is saying to itself: "we have to produce x thousand more of x sets (Tower Bridge, Palace Cinema, T1, etc) because we just changed our logo!"  I think they will go EOL at the exact same times as they otherwise would have.

Most likely, some department (Branding/Marketing/etc) decided to harmonise the branding and labeling of the existing products and there was sufficiently strong a business case to change this set as well. Does not mean it is not going away in a few months or a few years if the benefits from consistent branding would outweigh the cost of changes. If the boxes have to be printed anyway to go with the sets scheduled for production, the cost change what is printed on them is in most likelihood relatively low.

Honestly I think there is a very real possibility that new boxes have nothing to do with what is retiring and what they will produce more of in the future.  The new boxes are for the Creator line only as far as I can tell.  So TLG has a new Creator logo design and they want uniformity in their Creator sets; the sets they just released and the sets they are about to retire. Not a big deal.

 I don't think TLG is saying to itself: "we have to produce x thousand more of x sets (Tower Bridge, Palace Cinema, T1, etc) because we just changed our logo!"  I think they will go EOL at the exact same times as they otherwise would have.

It looks logical to me. Fingers crossed

Honestly I think there is a very real possibility that new boxes have nothing to do with what is retiring and what they will produce more of in the future.  The new boxes are for the Creator line only as far as I can tell.  So TLG has a new Creator logo design and they want uniformity in their Creator sets; the sets they just released and the sets they are about to retire. Not a big deal.

 I don't think TLG is saying to itself: "we have to produce x thousand more of x sets (Tower Bridge, Palace Cinema, T1, etc) because we just changed our logo!"  I think they will go EOL at the exact same times as they otherwise would have.

Totally agree. I see posts in other threads about sets staying around for years because they got a new box design, but I see no evidence to back it up.

Available @ Walmart...

I'm don't claim to know this but IMO it only takes uploading a new image to the printer to change a box design.

Not a big deal, too many people read too much into things! If these stay out longer it just gives me more time to buy more.

1 left in stock @ Target

It seems as though the script buyers have taken their foot off the gas on PS given how long inventory seems to be lasting these days.  I wonder how many they are sitting on collectively after the last 5-6 months of buying.

It seems as though the script buyers have taken their foot off the gas on PS given how long inventory seems to be lasting these days.  I wonder how many they are sitting on collectively after the last 5-6 months of buying.

It seems to be true of many sets.  We are in a holding pattern here until late Fall.

Available @ Target...

Available @ Walmart...

It seems to be true of many sets.  We are in a holding pattern here until late Fall.

I think the large number of exclusives that went last fall brought plenty of buyers eager to not miss the next big thing - I wonder if some folks went deep on sets and have been holding them for several months thinking they would go faster. Either way, any cryptic comments Ed on how many large sets might go off into the sunset this time around?

I think the large number of exclusives that went last fall brought plenty of buyers eager to not miss the next big thing - I wonder if some folks went deep on sets and have been holding them for several months thinking they would go faster. Either way, any cryptic comments Ed on how many large sets might go off into the sunset this time around?

We will find out in three months if business is back to normal or if there is a new, "sun never sets" mentality within The LEGO Group.

This whole mess around PS retirement gives some support to another acquisition strategy: buy exclusives *after* they've retired.  Yes, you pay a small premium.  

For example, you could purchase GE after retirement in the $220 range.  Sure, that's above MSRP, but now GE has been on a steady growth all this year, and that $220 outlay in February is worth about $320 today.  Not bad at all.  

Same with TH, actually.  They were available post-retirement in late December/early January for around $280.  I know, I bought 4 of them at that price.  And I just sold the last of them for $500.  Again, it didn't maximize my gain, but it was relatively risk free, the timing was locked in and I didn't have to play this "will they/won't they" game, I just cashed a nice set of profits for relatively easy acquisition and sale.  My thinking in acquiring the TH at $280 was that is was a surprise retirement, and was sure to appreciate quickly.  Turns out, that was correct. 

Investment is about both $$$ and time.  We tend to focus on the $$$.   Buying post-retirement is a time-efficient strategy, as opposed to $$$ efficient.  I'll bet your CAGR is actually better buying post retirement and selling 12 months later, than buying PS now and selling 12 months post.  YMMV.

 

Edited September 14, 201510 yr by diablo2112

We will find out in three months if business is back to normal or if there is a new, "sun never sets" mentality within The LEGO Group.

This makes me very hesitant to buy another modular. Or any big set, for that matter.

We will find out in three months if business is back to normal or if there is a new, "sun never sets" mentality within The LEGO Group.

If they do that we can all quit. You can close this website soon too.

This whole mess around PS retirement gives some support to another acquisition strategy: buy exclusives *after* they've retired.  Yes, you pay a small premium.  

For example, you could purchase GE after retirement in the $220 range.  Sure, that's above MSRP, but now GE has been on a steady growth all this year, and that $220 outlay in February is worth about $320 today.  Not bad at all.  

Same with TH, actually.  They were available post-retirement in late December/early January for around $280.  I know, I bought 4 of them at that price.  And I just sold the last of them for $500.  Again, it didn't maximize my gain, but it was relatively risk free, the timing was locked in and I didn't have to play this "will they/won't they" game, I just cashed a nice set of profits for relatively easy acquisition and sale.  My thinking in acquiring the TH at $280 was that is was a surprise retirement, and was sure to appreciate quickly.  Turns out, that was correct. 

Investment is about both $$$ and time.  We tend to focus on the $$$.   Buying post-retirement is a time-efficient strategy, as opposed to $$$ efficient.  I'll bet your CAGR is actually better buying post retirement and selling 12 months later, than buying PS now and selling 12 months post.  YMMV.

 

Shh...

This whole mess around PS retirement gives some support to another acquisition strategy: buy exclusives *after* they've retired.  Yes, you pay a small premium.  

For example, you could purchase GE after retirement in the $220 range.  Sure, that's above MSRP, but now GE has been on a steady growth all this year, and that $220 outlay in February is worth about $320 today.  Not bad at all.  

Same with TH, actually.  They were available post-retirement in late December/early January for around $280.  I know, I bought 4 of them at that price.  And I just sold the last of them for $500.  Again, it didn't maximize my gain, but it was relatively risk free, the timing was locked in and I didn't have to play this "will they/won't they" game, I just cashed a nice set of profits for relatively easy acquisition and sale.  My thinking in acquiring the TH at $280 was that is was a surprise retirement, and was sure to appreciate quickly.  Turns out, that was correct. 

Investment is about both $$$ and time.  We tend to focus on the $$$.   Buying post-retirement is a time-efficient strategy, as opposed to $$$ efficient.  I'll bet your CAGR is actually better buying post retirement and selling 12 months later, than buying PS now and selling 12 months post.  YMMV.

 

...but but but, I have all these VIP points to spend.

We will find out in three months if business is back to normal or if there is a new, "sun never sets" mentality within The LEGO Group.

Hmmm. Sun never sets.....

I don't think this would come to fruition, but I've been known to be wrong before.

Then ToO will be the last exclusive ever to retire.

Honoustly I think this will not happen. I can imagine Lego would like to keep some sets in the running till December. So they do some restocks once in a while.

This makes me very hesitant to buy another modular. Or any big set, for that matter.

This is very scary, specifically when it coming from Ed. Hope lego will not go that way.