price is trending down on this one.

Wish I had bought a Town Hall to build. If i buy one now for investing do you think I will make a profit a year or two down the road?

Yes, but I don't know if it will go up more in 2 years than other retiring sets.

 

The gap with HH is certainly narrowing and, apart from being low season, it seems that the reseller who didn´t meet their number effect has worn out and now there are more on the market than buyers willing to part with 500 euros.

In recent weeks, SSD has also grown a lot so the sales slump is not affecting all sets.

I have doubts about which of the next sets to retire could equal these growth rates unless there is a major suprise of an early retirement as there are so many new players in the game now and everyone has got scared by the TH "early" retirement.

Edited June 22, 201510 yr by valenciaeric

The gap with HH is certainly narrowing and, apart from being low season, it seems that the reseller who didn´t meet their number effect has worn out and now there are more on the market than buyers willing to part with 500 euros.

In recent weeks, SSD has also grown a lot so the sales slump is not affecting all sets.

I have doubts about which of the next sets to retire could equal these growth rates unless there is a major suprise of an early retirement as there are so many new players in the game now and everyone has got scared by the TH "early" retirement.

On the other hand there are so many exclusive and hard to find +$150.00 sets out there that most resellers don't have the budget to cover the whole product line in multiples they would like to.

My conclusion is that the majority of current modular collectors and resellers have got in after being caught by surprise and now the set´s performance will go back to being that of when it was on general sale e.g. average. Future patterns could depend on whether any more modulars go this year and if there is a new one in 2016 and on how many new AFOL collectors come into the modular market.

The people that predicted HH would be worth the same by the end of the year are probably going to be right as there should be a Halloween sales increase on that. SSD also has the movie to help it so I can see all 3 sets at around 2.5 times MSRP by end of year with R2 and GE not far behind.

Edited June 23, 201510 yr by valenciaeric

I just picked up two MISB town halls at retail. Thank you fossilised Lego market of Namibia!

Im contemplating selling one of these and investing the funds elsewhere. My theory is that the growth from here on forth will be very slow and I can gain more profit from the $500 in something else than I can in a TH. Thoughts? Then the question is what do I invest it in? I have reached my quota of all the models I currently want to be invested in. I don't have any Technic sets, so two of 42009 might be a good choice right now... With the crawler crane and arocs that were just released it would make sense for the oldest of 3 flagship technic models to be retired. The crawler crane is also borderline flagship so technically there are 4 awesome Technic sets available atm.

Im contemplating selling one of these and investing the funds elsewhere. My theory is that the growth from here on forth will be very slow and I can gain more profit from the $500 in something else than I can in a TH. Thoughts? Then the question is what do I invest it in? I have reached my quota of all the models I currently want to be invested in. I don't have any Technic sets, so two of 42009 might be a good choice right now... With the crawler crane and arocs that were just released it would make sense for the oldest of 3 flagship technic models to be retired. The crawler crane is also borderline flagship so technically there are 4 awesome Technic sets available atm.

Technic sets have been retiring with regular 2 year intervals so the MKII is a prime candidate for disappearing anytime. The only thing is that this is a damn fine set.. If LEGO was going to break that rule, this is a prime set to do it with.

I don't think they will though... the new Technic sets are all perfect replacements for everything but the Volvo loader.

You still have time to get 42009 so maybe advertise a 10224 at a price you are comfortable with as they are now moving slowly (not as many people about who can afford them).

It may also be wise to hold back and see what happens to the modular line in the last quarter in terms of which sets retire and any new set launch details.

You still have time to get 42009 so maybe advertise a 10224 at a price you are comfortable with as they are now moving slowly (not as many people about who can afford them).

It may also be wise to hold back and see what happens to the modular line in the last quarter in terms of which sets retire and any new set launch details.

Exactly my thoughts. I'm just scared that I can't move it above the current price in our small market. If the modular deli rumours are true, then PS has to go this year. Who knows, maybe the retire PC first for some odd reason. Either way I have my quota of PS and PC.

Exactly my thoughts. I'm just scared that I can't move it above the current price in our small market. If the modular deli rumours are true, then PS has to go this year. Who knows, maybe the retire PC first for some odd reason. Either way I have my quota of PS and PC.

I don't think there's a deli modular...

I don't think there's a deli modular...

Rumors from leaks...the most reliable source of info. Lol

Deli will be a smaller creator set like bike shop, if the leaked info is true.

Rumors from leaks...the most reliable source of info. Lol

Deli is priced at only EUR 34.99...definitely not a modular, if correct.

Deli is priced at only EUR 34.99...definitely not a modular, if correct.

Good to know. Thanks

Exactly my thoughts. I'm just scared that I can't move it above the current price in our small market. If the modular deli rumours are true, then PS has to go this year. Who knows, maybe the retire PC first for some odd reason. Either way I have my quota of PS and PC.

That´s the risk for those of us in smaller markets. Until you put an ad up you won´t know. Always time to drop the price later.

I think that in 6 months the price will be stabilized above 700 euro

I think that in 6 months the price will be stabilized above 700 euro

I hope you are right. 700 euro would be a landmark for me to sell some of mine. Thus taking a bit of my money back and use that to pay off part of my mortgage.

 

I hope you are right. 700 euro would be a landmark for me to sell some of mine. Thus taking a bit of my money back and use that to pay off part of my mortgage.

 

A mortgage for buying LEGO ??

A mortgage for buying LEGO ??

No... mortgage for my lego storage rooms.

Actually i took a small mortgage to buy 8 of them, i had a feeling. Now i am happy with my decision!!! 

Throw back Thursday!  One year ago today I made my smartest move as a brickvestor: First thing in the morning, I bought my first Town Hall on double VIP, just hours before they went out of stock.  I love to reminisce when I was right, so just for fun… some other comments from that day…(all comments edited and taken out of context)…

Bricketycricket: Backordered at LEGO Shop at Home. You may now commence EOL speculation and unwarranted panic

Trekgate502: I think it is heading towards EOL land based on multiple comments BUT that is purely highly unwarranted speculation.  Of course where mscheaf and I have the fork discussion going on the haunted house, I won't stick a fork in this one. VBG

Mscheaf: Yeah, if I get worried about this set retiring I will just go to the Lego store and pick up a few of the 2 dozen I saw there next to the Town Hall display model.

Neosphinx: Still plenty of stock

Clxmouth: OOS at TRU. They had em a couple hours ago.

…reports of OOS on other sites continued to come in… speculation tilted both ways… more comments seemed to lean towards, “this set isn’t going EOL yet… just the stupid herd creating artificial demand, and ensuring another big production run…”

And then on Oct 2…

Ed Mack: Very soon, this will be the busiest thread on the site.  

… then things really started to roll.  Ahhh… good times… glad I was here to be a part of it.  I was able to pick up several more over the next few weeks. The "dance" that ensued seemed quite orderly and easy to navigate, compared to what's going on these days. Probably never happen again quite that way.

... and since then I made a boatload of money selling F5 keys on Ebay

… then things really started to roll.  Ahhh… good times… glad I was here to be a part of it.  I was able to pick up several more over the next few weeks. The "dance" that ensued seemed quite orderly and easy to navigate, compared to what's going on these days. Probably never happen again quite that way.

I personally would like to think it won't - as it was not at all healthy for the long term sustainability of the market.

What I was nostalgic about was (in my memory anyway) this set proceeded quickly from limit 2, to OOS, to Sold Out. Then sold out at retailers, then - for about 2 months or so - reappeared here and there (pretty much everywhere like Walmart, Amazon, Target) sometimes stayed in stock for several hours giving investors ample time to order what they wanted, and then disappeared and stayed that way. No "Temporarily OOS... check back next summer".  No "We're making more..." Just a quick, relatively clean exit.  That's the way I remember it.  What's unhealthy about that?