10224 - Town Hall

[biniou]

Anyone think it's worth buying now at $400? Ed has talked about buying sets over retail and having success. 

 

I've read somewhere that Ed wrote it's cool to jump into a river if you can't swim. I might give it a try.

 

Seriously this set has retired (or is supposed to) few months ago and you would be already ok to buy one double RRP ? It's a bad idea my friend, don't be sad and look for the next TH. If it was 250$ I would say ok buy $400, oh my god, no way.

 

BTW I think that lots of people who buy this set $400 right now are new investors. Not all, but certainly lots of them. I would bet on it. It somehow reminds me the 41999, and I think this set will stay a while at $400 before raising again in value.

Edited January 13, 2015 by biniou

[chipbee]

There are better options for your $400.

 

If you buy at $400 you now need around $475 on ebay just to break even after shipping and fees. Seems like there's lower hanging fruit out there.

 

I don't think you'll LOSE any money on it, but you might be holding for quite a while. At what point is it worth moving for you? 100 profit? 200, 400? Think about the price points it will have to hit for you to get that net profit. How many buyers will go that high? Do you start to get into riskier customers when sets get this expensive? I don't have any data on that, but it feels like a risk.

i beg to differ. Buying TH now at above MSRP is almost a sure bet, as retirement is on hand, and demand is higher than supply. If buy other sets there will be greater uncertainty as retirement is unclear and lego may produce a lot more sets that satisfy demand for a long long time. Examples are 10188 and 10214.

I believe TH will reach the price level of today's green grocer easily within 2 to 3 years.

[asharerin]

Anyone think it's worth buying now at $400? Ed has talked about buying sets over retail and having success. 

 

Invest in a set that is in big demand, has very limited supply and a well established uptrend?

 

If you hate making money then avoid it like the plague. 

 

2014 was a special year. With so many exclusives retired last year 2015 is most likely going to be anemic in comparison. I'd say you could do alot worse than purchasing TH at $400, but not much better if at all right now in terms of potential. Personally I would take TH and HH right now over what 2015 is going to offer.

[Veegs]

i beg to differ. Buying TH now at above MSRP is almost a sure bet, as retirement is on hand, and demand is higher than supply. If buy other sets there will be greater uncertainty as retirement is unclear and lego may produce a lot more sets that satisfy demand for a long long time. Examples are 10188 and 10214.

I believe TH will reach the price level of today's green grocer easily within 2 to 3 years.

 

I think it is a pretty sure bet as well. I can tell you I have been living in pain since I sold one for $410 locally (yes, in CAD, but no fees or taxes). I think I could have held even another 6-12 months a made a lot more money. What other sets are in my inventory that are rising as fast as TH? I'd say $800+ in 16-24 months looks very reasonable, so not a bad investment if you can find one a little under $400.

[rich79]

Buy there is no risk in this one, if you have time and space to stock it then buy it.

Specially in Europe this is the best one to have i think. It's a part of the most populair serie and it's an icoon in that serie.

[marcandre]

There is only one seller on bricklink with double digit stock. Hong Kong based and only has 10. 

[lego rules]

There is only one seller on bricklink with double digit stock. Hong Kong based and only has 10. 

Doesn't mean there isn't one out there but decided not to show all their stock

[Brickbuilder.g]

The guy on Amazon right now has a ton

[Ciglione]

Anyone think it's worth buying now at $400? Ed has talked about buying sets over retail and having success. 

 

Although the price of $400 is already steep. I want to give an example of another retired set I bough a few months ago which was already retired.

 

In January 2014 when I started with this hobby I was looking at the 4184 POTC Black Pearl which was already retired then. MISB it was to be had at about 150 euro. I thought it was too late and I missed the boat. So I moved on. Then in August 2014 I still wanted the set and got it MISB from Ebay for 230 Euro incl. shipping. 80 Euro more than in January. So the moment of stepping in was beyond too late? No way! Now the price is above 300 euro on ebay. So still space to grow. The sky is the limit?

 

So... I agree with others saying $400 is very high. But looking it only unofficially retired a few months ago and now it at $400 already. I believe you can take the small risk. This set is pure gold. If you do not own any and want it for your own collection. Buy it right away!

 

Just my 0.02

[Guest TabbyBoy]

It is tempting to buy a desirable set for a high price but, something inside me stops me paying more than RRP. I missed the boat on this but, not others. There's plenty of other fish in the sea and the PS could be one such fish.

Edited January 13, 2015 by TabbyBoy

[Veegs]

Although the price of $400 is already steep. I want to give an example of another retired set I bough a few months ago which was already retired.

 

In January 2014 when I started with this hobby I was looking at the 4184 POTC Black Pearl which was already retired then. MISB it was to be had at about 150 euro. I thought it was too late and I missed the boat. So I moved on. Then in August 2014 I still wanted the set and got it MISB from Ebay for 230 Euro incl. shipping. 80 Euro more than in January. So the moment of stepping in was beyond too late? No way! Now the price is above 300 euro on ebay. So still space to grow. The sky is the limit?

 

So... I agree with others saying $400 is very high. But looking it only unofficially retired a few months ago and now it at $400 already. I believe you can take the small risk. This set is pure gold. If you do not own any and want it for your own collection. Buy it right away!

 

Just my 0.02

 

For sure - for your own collection, every day you wait is going to cost you. Even if you might want to one day have it/build it/display it (even if you don't build now) I think it is a must buy and must have.

[biniou]

Although the price of $400 is already steep. I want to give an example of another retired set I bough a few months ago which was already retired.

 

In January 2014 when I started with this hobby I was looking at the 4184 POTC Black Pearl which was already retired then. MISB it was to be had at about 150 euro. I thought it was too late and I missed the boat. So I moved on. Then in August 2014 I still wanted the set and got it MISB from Ebay for 230 Euro incl. shipping. 80 Euro more than in January. So the moment of stepping in was beyond too late? No way! Now the price is above 300 euro on ebay. So still space to grow. The sky is the limit?

 

So... I agree with others saying $400 is very high. But looking it only unofficially retired a few months ago and now it at $400 already. I believe you can take the small risk. This set is pure gold. If you do not own any and want it for your own collection. Buy it right away!

 

Just my 0.02

 

Yes, but imagine just a second that the black pearl was not 150

Edited January 13, 2015 by biniou

[vexxet]

It is tempting to buy a desirable set for a high price but, something inside me stops me paying more than RRP. I missed the boat on this but, not others. There's plenty of other fish in the sea and the PS could be one such fish.

could be?  of course.  probably going to happen?  absolutely not.  Pet shop is much older then the TH and is still going somewhat steady streamlike.  I know for me personally the 200$ price point kept me away from having much of this as I loaded up on GE, PS, and other 150$ exclusives thinking that this would be around a lot longer... oops!

Edited January 13, 2015 by vexxet

[peterjames]

Disclaimer:  I hold 8 of these and am holding long term

 

This seems to me to be a very favourable Supply & Demand situation for investors.

 

Demand

• Being part of a popular series helps, but within that series it is a unique set and highly desirable.  Cityscape builders will want to construct their street around this building.  It

[chipbee]

Yes, but imagine just a second that the black pearl was not 150

[biniou]

Comparing TH to 41999 is not accurate. TH is more like the first 3 modular, i.e. Cafe Corner, Market Street and green grocer. I have high hope that TH will reach USD 1000 within 4 years.

It was just to show the kind of price curve the TH could have within the next 2 years (before climbing in value again).

You also can't compare the TH with the CC or the GG for a lot of reasons (number of investors, theme under the radar, etc.)

Lots of TH have been sold a high price on ebay, but also some did not sold this week for

Edited January 14, 2015 by biniou

[chipbee]

It was just to show the kind of price curve the TH could have within the next 2 years (before climbing in value again).

You also can't compare the TH with the CC or the GG for a lot of reasons (number of investors, theme under the radar, etc.)

Lots of TH have been sold a high price on ebay, but also some did not sold this week for

[makr]

I'm also in the group that believes that TH should appreciate well.

The absolute majority of buyers from resellers are people who didn't buy back when a set was commonly available. And the surprisingly small time frame means that comparably few people bought it from regular retailers, thus increasing the number of aforementioned potential buyers.

Historically, being a modular set alone has been reason enough to receive nice gains. The target audience is among those with the highest liquidity / willingness to spend, And this one has everything going, neat looks, attention to detail, biggest modular of the whole series, unique concept, low supply stocks.

Of course it's very hard to give reliable predictions for the value at a given future date. But unless there's some drastic unforseen event, I'd be very surprised if prices won't rise steeply.

[Follows Closely]

I am holding till 2016 at a minimum. I see: $650 by Christmas 2016, $1000 by Christmas 2018.

[JDLego324]

^{On Amazon:}

 

^{1/7/15  66 sellers, lowest price $323.99}

 

^{ONE WEEK LATER (TODAY)}

^{1/14/15  48 sellers, lowest price $399.99 + 8.49 shipping}

 

^{IMO, this will easily be a $500 set by next Christmas (2015).}

Edited January 14, 2015 by JDLego324

[oneknightr]

This set is definitely a winner. I was able to get two right before EOL, but I now wish I tried harder to get more. Oh well, two is better than none. Long term hold for me.

[Veegs]

^{On Amazon:}

 

^{1/7/15  66 sellers, lowest price $323.99}

 

^{ONE WEEK LATER (TODAY)}

^{1/14/15  48 sellers, lowest price $399.99 + 8.49 shipping}

 

^{IMO, this will easily be a $500 set by next Christmas (2015).}

 

Maybe a few BPers and like-minded folk deciding to snap up everything under $400 or so. It think it is also in the Lego Catalog with the DO in the picture, too.

[peterjames]

^{On Amazon:}

^{1/7/15 66 sellers, lowest price $323.99}

^{ONE WEEK LATER (TODAY)}

^{1/14/15 48 sellers, lowest price $399.99 + 8.49 shipping}

^{IMO, this will easily be a $500 set by next Christmas (2015).}

In the 24 hours since my last post here, Bricklink availability has fallen to 195 in 112 lots from 214 in 118 lots. Not only a 10% drop on numbers but there are only 2 lots with 10 or more units and they are above $US640.

[Val-E]

Yeah, but there are like 50 9492 TIE fighters and I dont believe that there is a world shortage on them at this time. Yes, it is an interesting statistic and compared with GE and FB numbers it is very low but the complete picture of the  legs this set has will only become clear in six months or so when EOL has been officially confirmed, flippers have flipped and resellers give up on buying them from other resellers.

[lego333]

I remember back in Oct. or Nov. a discussion of which would appreciate more, HH or TH and most thought HH was the better investment.  Different story now for sure.  ebay sales for HH are mostly below $350, and TH hovering around $400.  I guess the spread will only grow wider over time as supplies of TH decrease.