Ok people...jump in your DeLoreans on this one! Which LOTR and Hobbit sets will turn out to be the pick-o-the-litter investment-wise like 4840 (The Burrow) has been for Harry Potter (as an example)? I'm at 88 MPH..........................................I'll let you know!

Oh, I love this game! However, I feel I need a little bit more information from The Hobbit series to make a good guess. I feel like a lot of it is still pretty subject to change.

Ok people...jump in your DeLoreans on this one!

Which LOTR and Hobbit sets will turn out to be the pick-o-the-litter investment-wise like 4840 (The Burrow) has been for Harry Potter (as an example)?

I'm at 88 MPH..........................................I'll let you know!

I think it has a lot to do with these 2 factors: exclusivity of the minifigs in the set and how long it was in production before EOL or being sold out.

The Burrow, Hogwart's Express and Dobey's release all went eol before Hogwart's Castle, Quidditch and Hagrid's Hut despite coming out at the same time. Of those 3, The Burrow was the most unique with exclusive minifigs fans have been waiting years for.

So with LOTR , TLG might be rotating out a few sets in a year or so similar with what they did with Harry Potter.

We'll have to wait and see which ones rotate out and go from there.

NO 2 themes are the same, and we can really only follow market trends and the math trail.

In current themes based on this trend and current TLG shop@home sell outs here is a list of retired and/or sets that sold out quickly on shop@home USA side rather abruptly and for a few, somewhat shockingly much like the Burrow did.

City Recycling truck

HP Hogwarts (the small castle)

POTC Black Pearl

POTC Queens Anne's revenge

POTC The Mill

Ninjago Fangpyre Mech

Ninjago Kai's Blade Cycle

Ninjago Lloyd Green Spinner

MInecraft set

This is a growing list as holidays approach and more sets surprisingly vanish from the radar and EOL suddenly. Expect a few Star Wars sets to do extraordinary well in the aftermarket if they happen to EOL before the holidays, as with any set.

With LOTR I cant say for sure, the entire theme is great for the most part. But Weathertop would be my guess as the first LOTR set to cycle out.

cheers!

I think it has a lot to do with these 2 factors: exclusivity of the minifigs in the set and how long it was in production before EOL or being sold out.

The Burrow, Hogwart's Express and Dobey's release all went eol before Hogwart's Castle, Quidditch and Hagrid's Hut despite coming out at the same time. Of those 3, The Burrow was the most unique with exclusive minifigs fans have been waiting years for.

So with LOTR , TLG might be rotating out a few sets in a year or so similar with what they did with Harry Potter.

We'll have to wait and see which ones rotate out and go from there.

NO 2 themes are the same, and we can really only follow market trends and the math trail.

In current themes based on this trend and current TLG shop@home sell outs here is a list of retired and/or sets that sold out quickly on shop@home USA side rather abruptly and for a few, somewhat shockingly much like the Burrow did.

City Recycling truck

HP Hogwarts (the small castle)

POTC Black Pearl

POTC Queens Anne's revenge

POTC The Mill

Ninjago Fangpyre Mech

Ninjago Kai's Blade Cycle

Ninjago Lloyd Green Spinner

MInecraft set

This is a growing list as holidays approach and more sets surprisingly vanish from the radar and EOL suddenly. Expect a few Star Wars sets to do extraordinary well in the aftermarket if they happen to EOL before the holidays, as with any set.

With LOTR I cant say for sure, the entire theme is great for the most part. But Weathertop would be my guess as the first LOTR set to cycle out.

cheers!

Excellent points. I agree, The Burrow's success is due to an early EOL. Maybe an indicator of future success of the remaining Harry Potter sets after EOL?