Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Crustybeaver]

Well...I'd caveat that to say, "as long as you are smartly investing."  Because, no one wants to end up with no diversification, and a closet full of Prince of Persia sets.

 

If you're stupid enough to invest all your money into Prince of Persia sets then you deserve to crash and burn. Whereas investing all your funds into a key exclusives like modulars, Campervans or Tumblers would almost guarantee excellent returns.

[Locutus001]

If you're stupid enough to invest all your money into Prince of Persia sets then you deserve to crash and burn. Whereas investing all your funds into a key exclusives like modulars, Campervans or Tumblers would almost guarantee excellent returns.

Well... you don't know what actually will be smart in the future so PoP could have been smart ^.^ (though it wasn't! *****)

 

The smartest investor will get sets that are:

-not hoarded

-way cheaper than the retail price

-will invest in a lot of different sets that work according to his investment strategy

-are winners in the future (what you cannot predict 100%)

 

the last part at least is gambling/highly speculative, though you can try to find patterns etc. to invest as smart as possible.

In defense for Pop:

-there has been a movie (normally that's not too bad... but the movie flopped...)

-the game is highly popular and well known (though it's fans probably/obviously are not all LEGO fans as well ;-) )

-the sets and minifigs actually have been pretty neat (which is the strongest point)

 

after the sets flopped (for some obvious reasons, especially the movie ^.^ and probably also that it didn't really fit with other LEGO themes) all sets have been available for a BIG discount

 

so if some people speculated on these sets, thinking that they won't be hoarded, are available for quite some discount and fans might want to have them in the future since PoP itself is not unpopular, then I do get the thinking behind it.

 

I myself didn't buy any, but I bought some Lone Ranger sets, because those are really nice AND I always loved the western theme.

The movie was bad and I don't think that many people care for Lone Ranger but the western theme with really nicely made sets still had some strong points for me.

Probably these have been bad investments, but still I speculated on them for before mentioned reasons.

If these don't work out for me I'll still love them and build them myself. which actually is one of my key strategies; buying sets that you'd love to build yourself.

 

So of course it is easy to say "haha how could you invest in Prince of Persia? You deserve to burn for it!" AFTER you really know the outcome.

But to me this approach is to easy(-minded).

[biking_tiger]

..."way cheaper than retail price" is not always possible or all that meaningful. For the sets with greatest return (I'm looking at you, exclusives), "way cheaper than retail price" isn't a reality (barring once in a blue moon events like WM's TB goof). 

 

Slow and steady wins the race. Impulse buys because the sky is falling (i.e., EVERYTHING IS GOING EOL! OMG!) leads to poor investment. I'm not an expert here--only speaking from my own "learning" experience.

[hxckid88]

Well... you don't know what actually will be smart in the future so PoP could have been smart ^.^ (though it wasn't! *****)

The smartest investor will get sets that are:

-not hoarded

-way cheaper than the retail price

-will invest in a lot of different sets that work according to his investment strategy

-are winners in the future (what you cannot predict 100%)

the last part at least is gambling/highly speculative, though you can try to find patterns etc. to invest as smart as possible.

In defense for Pop:

-there has been a movie (normally that's not too bad... but the movie flopped...)

-the game is highly popular and well known (though it's fans probably/obviously are not all LEGO fans as well ;-) )

-the sets and minifigs actually have been pretty neat (which is the strongest point)

after the sets flopped (for some obvious reasons, especially the movie ^.^ and probably also that it didn't really fit with other LEGO themes) all sets have been available for a BIG discount

so if some people speculated on these sets, thinking that they won't be hoarded, are available for quite some discount and fans might want to have them in the future since PoP itself is not unpopular, then I do get the thinking behind it.

I myself didn't buy any, but I bought some Lone Ranger sets, because those are really nice AND I always loved the western theme.

The movie was bad and I don't think that many people care for Lone Ranger but the western theme with really nicely made sets still had some strong points for me.

Probably these have been bad investments, but still I speculated on them for before mentioned reasons.

If these don't work out for me I'll still love them and build them myself. which actually is one of my key strategies; buying sets that you'd love to build yourself.

So of course it is easy to say "haha how could you invest in Prince of Persia? You deserve to burn for it!" AFTER you really know the outcome.

But to me this approach is to easy(-minded).

Hoarding has nothing to do with resell. I'm doing just fine with my 119 fire brigade's. U know, the most hoarded set ever. Ge.... Been on the rise a ton. You know what else is reslly hoarded.... Sge.... I'll and others will do fine. Supply demand.

[Crustybeaver]

Well... you don't know what actually will be smart in the future so PoP could have been smart ^.^ (though it wasn't! *****)

 

The smartest investor will get sets that are:

-not hoarded

-way cheaper than the retail price

-will invest in a lot of different sets that work according to his investment strategy

-are winners in the future (what you cannot predict 100%)

 

the last part at least is gambling/highly speculative, though you can try to find patterns etc. to invest as smart as possible.

In defense for Pop:

-there has been a movie (normally that's not too bad... but the movie flopped...)

-the game is highly popular and well known (though it's fans probably/obviously are not all LEGO fans as well ;-) )

-the sets and minifigs actually have been pretty neat (which is the strongest point)

 

after the sets flopped (for some obvious reasons, especially the movie ^.^ and probably also that it didn't really fit with other LEGO themes) all sets have been available for a BIG discount

 

so if some people speculated on these sets, thinking that they won't be hoarded, are available for quite some discount and fans might want to have them in the future since PoP itself is not unpopular, then I do get the thinking behind it.

 

I myself didn't buy any, but I bought some Lone Ranger sets, because those are really nice AND I always loved the western theme.

The movie was bad and I don't think that many people care for Lone Ranger but the western theme with really nicely made sets still had some strong points for me.

Probably these have been bad investments, but still I speculated on them for before mentioned reasons.

If these don't work out for me I'll still love them and build them myself. which actually is one of my key strategies; buying sets that you'd love to build yourself.

 

So of course it is easy to say "haha how could you invest in Prince of Persia? You deserve to burn for it!" AFTER you really know the outcome.

But to me this approach is to easy(-minded).

 

Again I'm going to disagree with you. A smart decision isn't based on popularity of sets, as hxckid88 stated supply and demand is far more important. Fire Brigade had a long production run and was heavily invested and yet gives a solid return after only one year. Lets face it modulars are hardly a gamble, most are fully aware that exclusive sets give great returns.

 

I think the difference between you and I is that I invest solely for the purpose of making money, I have no interest in building. I look at patterns, sales, popularity, themes and make decisions based on sets I'm confident on. As it stands my retired sets all show solid growth. You on the other hand follow your heart and buy into sets that you'd be happy to build (which is by no means wrong) but it means you buy into a theme because you like westerns or a film tie in. Personally I thought the Lone Ranger movie was terrible and with the exception of the train set felt it was going to show poor growth with money spent better elsewhere. 

 

Predicting which sets will be winners really isn't that difficult, you've just got to do your research.

[trekgate502]

I think there are many ways to invest and profit from it and there is not one correct way.  There are many ways and advantages to different methods.

Not one member here has the perfect answer to everything.

[No More Monkeys]

Not one member here has the perfect answer to everything.

Well, except emazers...

[trekgate502]

Well, except emazers...

 

You may be right, I did not know he was into the quick flip strategy too. VBG

[Mos_Eisley]

Well, except emazers...

EDB...

[Veegs]

EDB...

 

Still has a chance to be epic! Let's see what it does next Christmas.

[speedsausage]

Fire brigade's for 119.00 on Amazon for an entire year was better then tb deal.

Something I see posted here and talked about quite often is '' I got this set to diversify my portfolio ''

I think that's kind of silly. Would you rather have 1 of all these random sets or have nothing but hh or ssd. I personally am really narrowing my picks down in regards to the long haul.

Mark Cuban said diversifying a portfolio is stupid. And he rules.

To add to hcxkid88 post, diversification is for people who have a low tolerance for risk. You diversify because you don't really know how a set/stock is going to perform therefore you buy a couple different ones and if one does poorly hopefully the other picks up the slack. If you could see into the future, of course you would only pick the true winners and not a wide variety.

There is a thread "virtual LEGO investing game" (sorry, I don't know how to make it a hyperlink, if that's what it's called) that portrays this perfectly. In short, the winner was the person who dumped all of their money into one set, not 10 different ones.

[exciter1]

To add to hcxkid88 post, diversification is for people who have a low tolerance for risk. You diversify because you don't really know how a set/stock is going to perform therefore you buy a couple different ones and if one does poorly hopefully the other picks up the slack. If you could see into the future, of course you would only pick the true winners and not a wide variety.

There is a thread "virtual LEGO investing game" (sorry, I don't know how to make it a hyperlink, if that's what it's called) that portrays this perfectly. In short, the winner was the person who dumped all of their money into one set, not 10 different ones.

 

Diversification can also help when you have a lower buy-in for sets that are on-sale or clearanced.  You are ahead of the game from the get go at that point, especially if the set is a winner.

[legokent]

I diversify because I can't bear the thought of not having the set that will become the next big winner. 

[macdroid]

diversification is also good when you want to achieve a high selling throughput...it's easier to unload a couple of different sets than the same amount of the same set...

[TheOrcKing]

Not one member here has the perfect answer to everything.

Well, except emazers...

[speedsausage]

Diversification can also help when you have a lower buy-in for sets that are on-sale or clearanced. You are ahead of the game from the get go at that point, especially if the set is a winner.

I agree but if you "know" deep down in your heart of hearts that the Tumbler you have been investing in hand over fist is going to be in the top 1% percent of sets for ROI all time, would you go buy something else because it's on sale? I wouldn't because you'd be leaving money on the table at that point. There are many other reasons to have variety too. If you have store or if you sell parts on brinklink. You're not going to sell just one set or a single brick element, you need to have a variety. I'm not saying go all in on a single set but this game is taking risks and getting rewarded for it. My first real "high volume" investment was the RI and I'm still reaping the benefits from it.

[exciter1]

I agree but if you "know" deep down in your heart of hearts that the Tumbler you have been investing in hand over fist is going to be in the top 1% percent of sets for ROI all time, would you go buy something else because it's on sale? I wouldn't because you'd be leaving money on the table at that point. There are many other reasons to have variety too. If you have store or if you sell parts on brinklink. You're not going to sell just one set or a single brick element, you need to have a variety. I'm not saying go all in on a single set but this game is taking risks and getting rewarded for it. My first real "high volume" investment was the RI and I'm still reaping the benefits from it.

 

Ummm, heck yeah I would!  Especially when you know a set might only be around 6 months vs. another 3 years.

[tractorboy]

To add to hcxkid88 post, diversification is for people who have a low tolerance for risk. You diversify because you don't really know how a set/stock is going to perform therefore you buy a couple different ones and if one does poorly hopefully the other picks up the slack. If you could see into the future, of course you would only pick the true winners and not a wide variety.

There is a thread "virtual LEGO investing game" (sorry, I don't know how to make it a hyperlink, if that's what it's called) that portrays this perfectly. In short, the winner was the person who dumped all of their money into one set, not 10 different ones.

Different story when you're only spending virtual money though. And you don't have to actually sell the sets. Obviously to win, you just have to pick the best performing set and go all in.

I like some diversification to a point, though almost all my buys are large box exclusives. With a variety of sets, you're attracting a wider number of potential customers, and could reasonably expect a more efficient cashflow. With one set, you're only going to draw customers looking for that particular set.

[Young_Gun21]

I think we aren't specifying diverse. I would consider someone diverse if they had a lot of different large exclusives (not very many to start with). I also would consider someone diverse if they have different sizes of sets. But if you really want to get down to it, not very many of us are very diverse because we only have LEGO and maybe 1 other product.

[biking_tiger]

These sets are worth nothing until someone buys them. I remember the illusion of value when I collected comic books... and sold my collection "worth thousands" for a hundred bucks.

 

You have to keep the end goal in mind--selling--that's why I like diversity. The "what did you sell today" thread is full of folks who sold multiple DIFFERENT sets to the same buyer. Repeat customers aren't going to buy 100 HHs. Customers have to be there for the sets to have value. Diversification opens the doors to a larger customer base.

[justapilgrim]

Thanks for the reads;

Everyone is different investor. Example: prince of Persia could be someone's perfect investment. Sets not widely hoarded, could be found at steep discounts, all the desert themes not going to be reproduced soon.

While you all busy w exclusives, have you checked the price of loose camels and ostriches lately?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Brickpicker mobile app

[hxckid88]

Thanks for the reads;

Everyone is different investor. Example: prince of Persia could be someone's perfect investment. Sets not widely hoarded, could be found at steep discounts, all the desert themes not going to be reproduced soon.

While you all busy w exclusives, have you checked the price of loose camels and ostriches lately?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Brickpicker mobile app

I have not but I saw a sold listing of two trex and that other dinosaur maxifig for 150!!!!

[Alpinemaps]

I diversify because I can't bear the thought of not having the set that will become the next big winner. 

 

You can't play the game like that, at least not in my opinion.  Because when that one set does become the next winner?  Yeah, you've only got two of them because you're so diverse.

 

I played that game at first, and I've got a garage full of onesies/twosies that I'm slowly chipping away at.  R2-D2 is a good example for me.  I have no doubt it will be a winner.  I have no doubt that people that are picking it up are a making a wise investment.  But, I have zero in my stock.  Because I can't buy everything.  There are other sets that I've decided to focus on.  Don't spread yourself too thin.

[hxckid88]

You can't play the game like that, at least not in my opinion. Because when that one set does become the next winner? Yeah, you've only got two of them because you're so diverse.

I played that game at first, and I've got a garage full of onesies/twosies that I'm slowly chipping away at. R2-D2 is a good example for me. I have no doubt it will be a winner. I have no doubt that people that are picking it up are a making a wise investment. But, I have zero in my stock. Because I can't buy everything. There are other sets that I've decided to focus on. Don't spread yourself too thin.

I guess you don't live near a few Barnes and nobles and have 50 kids like me.....

[legone]

SGE?