Retiring Soon - open speculation

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

I wouldn't worry too much about the thread being on track. Its really not worth much unless its retirement time for a bunch of sets like at the end/beginning of the year and sometimes a few in mid summer.

 

Otherwise all it is is a bunch of speculation.

[hxckid88]

  

I have been hoping TRU goes out of business ever since they changed their shipping prices to Hawaii. Now "free" shipping to Hawaii is 29.99 no matter what. LOL what a joke. Hope they go down in a ball of flames.

you live in Hawaii!?!?! Do not complain about anything again ever.

[hxckid88]

Other than the "Our Exclusive" tag, is there any evidence that they will be the sole retailer for the GE? This doesn't even show up under the Our Exclusives category while several items that aren't exclusive do, this could just be a mistake on the website.

Speculation ahead---> Since they aren't the only retailer for Technic anymore, maybe they opted for this arrangement instead.

interesting point. I didn't even think of that. Good thought to ponder.

[Ed Mack]

The end of the LEGO investing is not here yet. We have no proof of this happening. I am basically asking "what if"? As emazers said, sure LEGO will retire a set and stop producing it, but as shown with the Vampyre's Castle, it can take months to clear out old stock. Even if the TRU price is inflated, it will be cheaper than what resellers on eBay will charge, so everything will be delayed and the overall growth of sets will slow. This will certainly have an effect on short term flippers.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

[exciter1]

The end of the LEGO investing is not here yet. We have no proof of this happening. I am basically asking "what if"? As emazers said, sure LEGO will retire a set and stop producing it, but as shown with the Vampyre's Castle, it can take months to clear out old stock. Even if the TRU price is inflated, it will be cheaper than what resellers on eBay will charge, so everything will be delayed and the overall growth of sets will slow. This will certainly have an effect on short term flippers.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

 

Sometimes you just need to pick the right sets.  I know, I know, easier said than done.

[StarCityBrickCompany]

The end of the LEGO investing is not here yet. We have no proof of this happening. I am basically asking "what if"? As emazers said, sure LEGO will retire a set and stop producing it, but as shown with the Vampyre's Castle, it can take months to clear out old stock. Even if the TRU price is inflated, it will be cheaper than what resellers on eBay will charge, so everything will be delayed and the overall growth of sets will slow. This will certainly have an effect on short term flippers.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

 

Things have gotten to the point nowadays, that there really is no EOL (with or without TRU).

[waddamon]

I wouldn't worry too much about the thread being on track. Its really not worth much unless its retirement time for a bunch of sets like at the end/beginning of the year and sometimes a few in mid summer.

 

Otherwise all it is is a bunch of speculation.

i would, in fact this thread has been very useful based on the original premise. Now it has way too much chatter. So far Lego has not followed any type of manageable retirement strategy. They retired quite a few sets randomly and in waves since thanksgiving. This thread brought it to the surface for me. If it becomes random talk it should be locked. People seem to forget what a specific thread is for. Investors on this site are really beginning to look like retail investors in the stock market. Most loose money and get creamed because they are emotional and ill planned.

[Ed Mack]

Things have gotten to the point nowadays, that there really is no EOL (with or without TRU).

This is true. Let's say the TRU exclusive theory is true. As Exciter stated above, it's all about picking the right sets because TRU will not make every set an exclusive. So maybe another market develops....one in which investors buy sets at MSRP or slightly higher right after they realize TRU is not going to resell this retired LEGO set. Investors selling to other investors who did not have the foresight to buy the non-TRU exclusive sets, but still know this set is a strong investment. Maybe it opens up more opportunities for smart resellers.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

[StarCityBrickCompany]

Maybe it opens up more opportunities for smart resellers.

 

 

So instead of the resellers who are happy making $5 on a set, the smart resellers will be looking to make $4 - sounds great.

 

The "more investors buying post retirement" idea (which was theorized long ago), has never happened.

[Noodlenut]

Just incase TRU begins to keep retired sets too long and our brickfolios tank in value (which they won't,) here is what we can do:

 

[Darth_Raichu]

So instead of the resellers who are happy making $5 on a set, the smart resellers will be looking to make $4 - sounds great.

I hate to say this, but with steeper competitions, they will have to settle with making $3

[inversion]

This is true. Let's say the TRU exclusive theory is true. As Exciter stated above, it's all about picking the right sets because TRU will not make every set an exclusive. So maybe another market develops....one in which investors buy sets at MSRP or slightly higher right after they realize TRU is not going to resell this retired LEGO set. Investors selling to other investors who did not have the foresight to buy the non-TRU exclusive sets, but still know this set is a strong investment. Maybe it opens up more opportunities for smart resellers.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

My gosh! The market is getting more and more competitive! Making profit is becoming harder! What a blasphemy!    Who expected this? Oh wait... As long as there is profit and entry is easy and not limited, the market will attract new players and develop new, increasingly complex practices to exploit the opportunity. Some people are panicking here like they did not know this and believed that LEGO investing would be a piece of cake forever.

 

The LEGO investing scene has arrived to its mature phase and is showing its sign very well. Major players (TRU, emazers, etc.) are developing with a competitive fringe (small investors). Making profits requires more and more strategy and insight. Inefficient players will drop out (panickers are afraid of this?), it can not be avoided. The key to survival is adaptation. This is the essence of Ed's post. Investors have to select sets more carefully while profits will become potentially smaller with the introduction of extra uncertainty through not knowing which set TRU will not resell which results in more sets invested in bought around MSRP and with the increasing participation.

 

So will it be harder to make profits? Certainly. What you have to do? Adapt and be efficient! Will it require more effort and time? Absolutely! In a contestable market this can be considered as a law. Who thought otherwise, believing that profits and required effort will stay the same in the long term is -sorry for the expression- plainly stupid.

[Bold-Arrow]

Great... Another bubble thread !!

[inversion]

Great... Another bubble thread !!

Bubble means the market will collapse suddenly. Increasing competition, refined practices and diminishing profits over time are not equivalent to it and this is what a lot of people do not get right.

 

Bubbles result in chaos and are unexpected (by most). Profits being "competed away" is natural and expected. The smart guys are already counting on this and preparing to be able to stand their ground in the later phases of competition. The others are... well, panicking and complaining.

[Mos_Eisley]

I wouldn't say that any of the people who have been doing this for a while are stupid, they were way ahead of the curve on this, afterall. And I haven't seen one person who has been doing this for years ever say that they are surprised that this is happening. All any of them has represented is more of a disappointment in what it has become. Also, none of them have stated they're done. Of course they are adapting, but it doesn't mean they can't be disappointed in the new market. They already know how to do this. I think people forget that when people started doing this 10 years ago there was no site to ask every day "what should I buy?!" or "when will xxxx retire?!" or "when should I sell this?!" They did it all on their own and they are plenty savvy. Don't mistake disappointment for unpreparedness.

[StarCityBrickCompany]

Bubble means the market will collapse suddenly. Increasing competition, refined practices and diminishing profits over time are not equivalent to it and this is what a lot of people do not get right.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wujVMIYzYXg

[Bold-Arrow]

Bubble means the market will collapse suddenly. Increasing competition, refined practices and diminishing profits over time are not equivalent to it and this is what a lot of people do not get right.

Bubbles result in chaos and are unexpected (by most). Profits being "competed away" is natural and expected. The smart guys are already counting on this and preparing to be able to stand their ground in the later phases of competition. The others are... well, panicking and complaining.

It just have the feel that it is going that way. I was just forecasting . Many threads have went down the same path before.

[inversion]

I wouldn't say that any of the people who have been doing this for a while are stupid, they were way ahead of the curve on this, afterall. And I haven't seen one person who has been doing this for years ever say that they are surprised that this is happening. All any of them has represented is more of a disappointment in what it has become. Also, none of them have stated they're done. Of course they are adapting, but it doesn't mean they can't be disappointed in the new market. They already know how to do this. I think people forget that when people started doing this 10 years ago there was no site to ask every day "what should I buy?!" or "when will xxxx retire?!" or "when should I sell this?!" They did it all on their own and they are plenty savvy. Don't mistake disappointment with unpreparedness.

I don't want to mistake disappointment with unpreparedness. I just made a general statement about the characteristics of the evolution of the market, don't want to be offensive. Stupid people are only those who expect that they will be able able to keep up the current level of profits and practices. It is true for every kind of business. Disappointment is alright and natural.

 

But you have to admit that a few years ago you could do nice profits being casual, without spending too much time and effort to research possibilities. There are people like those who were successful in that less competitive environment.

 

And you just pointed out one of the reasons (probably most of us know this)  that these sites are practically a free source of information and reduce asymmetry of information, which makes entry easier, resulting also in higher competition.

[Mos_Eisley]

I wasn't offended, just offering up a counterpoint ?

[stephen_rockefeller]

Break break break.........why are we talking about this (again) in this thread? Numerous members have asked to keep this on topic. Now I'm asking to get on topic or else another useful thread will have to be locked.

[exciter1]

The LEGO investing scene has arrived to its mature phase and is showing its sign very well. Major players (TRU, emazers, etc.) are developing with a competitive fringe (small investors).

 

Many who post regularly here that seem to be "Major players" are actually small fish in a very big pond.  Many of the major players don't even give BrickPicker the time of day, or even know what it is.  There are other major players who are members of this site, but they don't post anything.

[rcdb1984]

went to my lego store the other day.  GE PS SSD DS multiple on the shelves

[MartinP]

went to my lego store the other day.  GE PS SSD DS multiple on the shelves

Very interesting. I went to my local Lego store the other day, and the only exclusive set that I didn't see was the SSD.

[Ed Mack]

My gosh! The market is getting more and more competitive! Making profit is becoming harder! What a blasphemy!    Who expected this? Oh wait... As long as there is profit and entry is easy and not limited, the market will attract new players and develop new, increasingly complex practices to exploit the opportunity. Some people are panicking here like they did not know this and believed that LEGO investing would be a piece of cake forever.

 

The LEGO investing scene has arrived to its mature phase and is showing its sign very well. Major players (TRU, emazers, etc.) are developing with a competitive fringe (small investors). Making profits requires more and more strategy and insight. Inefficient players will drop out (panickers are afraid of this?), it can not be avoided. The key to survival is adaptation. This is the essence of Ed's post. Investors have to select sets more carefully while profits will become potentially smaller with the introduction of extra uncertainty through not knowing which set TRU will not resell which results in more sets invested in bought around MSRP and with the increasing participation.

 

So will it be harder to make profits? Certainly. What you have to do? Adapt and be efficient! Will it require more effort and time? Absolutely! In a contestable market this can be considered as a law. Who thought otherwise, believing that profits and required effort will stay the same in the long term is -sorry for the expression- plainly stupid.

Thanks...You made the point I was trying to make.  Produce or perish.  Adapt or die.  Whatever the cliche, this will weed out some people for sure.  The experienced resellers that have an eye for picking the right set and investors with deep pockets and time can take advantage.  

[brickelements]

Summary:

 

margins will thin with more players and new TLG policies on no exclusive discounts (this is the biggest factor to me)

How many of us bought PS, TB, SSD, DS, HH, FB, and others on discount in 2012/13?  I did.  

The only Modular I bought at retail was GE, and that was only because it was early coming out of my dark ages.

The mentality behind that purchase, GE was the oldest modular aside of FB.  I didn't see TRU making it their own exclusive.

So I will wait.  My CAGR might be terrible on it, but hey sometimes it takes a while for an investment to mature.

Should I worry about opportunity costs, heck yeah.  Dozens of buys would have been better than that one.

 

This is why you diversify.  If I put every cent into GE, I would be panicking.  I own 6.  Thought about more recently but I allocated my capital elsewhere.
 

Adaptation will be needed to find the best opportunities to buy and time your sales.  There are some players in here that just amaze me with the coupon/promo stacking practices they find and implement.  I feel like a newbie all the time because of it.

 

Potential of longer holding periods to acheive similar results is already happening with MF (VC) and now GE.  TRU is terrible for hanging onto a set after TLG retirement.  Sounds about right.  Even if holding periods are extended some, there will be many players who can foresee this and time their buys and sales accordingly.

There will always be a part-out crowd for the quick flip on new set arrival.  A lot of the easy money has been made. (Just like the first major move of a stock).

 

I love this game, the returns are far better than the average S&P index fund. Unless that reverses the playing field will continue to expand.

Money can be like water flowing to a path of least resistance.

 

Why does the investing community call it EOL anyway?  Should End of Production EOP be included?

 

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