How long until EOL sites hit max price and growth curve levels out

[abri123]

Hi, I know every set is different, and some sets are continuing to grow after several years, but what is the typical time for EOL sets price increases to level off? I'm asking as there are several sets out there, that when you look at the graph of sales, are just a flat line for the previous year's data available, so you don't know how long they were in growth. Opinions?

[Grolim]

If you could predict this accurately for each set it would make you the perfect investor. Using older sets and sets that are similar to one we are making a decision on is usually the best we can do. Finding that optimum spot where growth slows to a point where taking your profits and then putting your capital into a higher growing set is something I'm trying to work towards, but it is super hard to do. What I have noticed, in general, it isn't a sets time that determines it's plateau, but more its actual price. Once a set hits 4-5 times its original retail price there is often a slowing or peaking of growth. My theory is that buyers find it hard to justify paying such a big markup for a secondary market set when they could take their disposable income and buy some other Lego like a different set, a retail one, or a used one.

[jaisonline]

Hi, I know every set is different, and some sets are continuing to grow after several years, but what is the typical time for EOL sets price increases to level off?

I'm asking as there are several sets out there, that when you look at the graph of sales, are just a flat line for the previous year's data available, so you don't know how long they were in growth.

Opinions?

In general, (there are indeed exceptions like the UCS MF), 2-3 years after retirement begins. I did write a blog post by Ed (I think) and he stated either 1-2 years after retirement (or 2-3 years for retired sets after it was introduced). Ed can correct me if I'm wrong here.

In cases like Batman (2006-2008), the prices didn't level off until the refreshes arrived. In the latter, open boxed sales actually did declined in value.

It will be very interesting to see how The Zombies perform since the widely available retail life was only 4-5 months. I wonder if it will perform like the 2006 holiday train set (very short retail life). Zombies has already increased 3x MSRP since Nov 2012 and Halloween is approaching as well as the EOL for it's brother sets.

Folks such as Ed M, Emazers, Jeff M, Mos_Eisley would have far more hands-on data and experience than me. I only tracked historic specific themes (that I would only buy something similar to) when deciding if Lego investing is for me.

There are also a few investing articles on here that touch upon this topic.