I'm new to LEGO and have to admit to being overwhelmed at the number of Star Wars sets now 20% off this week (and, by overwhelmed, I mean both me and my wallet).  I've already bought a few of the smaller sets, but I don't have the history to know whether now is really the time to pick up some of the premium sets or if I should be waiting for bigger deals, such as the 25% or even 30% off deals that I see being posted in some of the non-Star Wars areas.

I'd appreciate the perspective of members who've been around for a few years!

Below are 5 frames of thought I use when looking at discounts. They are in no particular order.

1. If you are just buying single sets for personal builds, you should generally consider 20% the standard minimum discount to look for. Unless there is a great stack of GWPs to offset the price, I rarely find the need to pay full price. (Brickheadz and similar exclusives would be the exception)

2. I'll look at how many locations are selling the item when considering how high of discount I'm waiting for. If the set is only available at lego.com, finding it for 10% off might be a good deal. Some sets have been exclusive to one big box store along with lego.com like 75351 Princess Leia's Helmet so 20% might be a good deal. But if its available at all major retailers, I'm looking for at least 40% off.

3. I'll consider the age of the item. If it's near retirement the FOMO may kick in and I'll accept less of a discount in order to secure the set. 

4. Does the set have exclusive minifigs, pieces, or printed bricks? These will generally increase the resale value and I'll accept less of a discount.

5. And finally, don't forget about 3rd party discounts. Rewards sites like Honey or Rakuten. Cash back from credit cards. These can stack to turn meager discounts into worthwhile ones.

I'm sure there are many other great opinions from members that do this on a larger scale.

In my experience, the amount of the discount is directly related to how much work you put into getting it.  Like bonusbrick said 30%-40% off is very possible on many sets but you need to spend a lot of time searching, checking, stacking deals, ect. and be ready to buy very quickly to get sets at that discount.  On top of that, getting a mass produced $50 set for $35 is much easier than getting an exclusive $850 UCS AT-AT for $600. Deals over 20% on large sets ($200+) have historically been hard to come by.  They happen but they're rare and don't often last. Black Panther and Table Football are the exception, not the rule.

So I'd say if you are looking for a Star Wars set around $200-$300 then double VIP along with all the promos is going to end up being a pretty good deal (assuming you sell the promos or otherwise consider their value). Now if you're talking very high dollar sets sets like the Falcon and AT-AT, double VIP + promos is still going to be an OK deal if you don't want to wait, but you can probably do better holding out for closer to 20% off. Just keep in mind that there's no guarantee a particular exclusive will ever be 20%+ off and as a set moves toward retirement you may look up one day and realize it's sold out everywhere and now you can't even get it at MSRP.

Good luck!

I want to reiterate that for the big ticket sets... it can be quite a gamble to wait too long. If you miss out the "new" market price can easily jump $100+. If I know I will buy it no matter what; I pull the trigger early w/ VIP pts and GWP ad-ons... once I have one, then I know I can wait on a deal...which ALMOST always comes near retirement.  ZAVVI (The Hut Group) is known for sales on big sets near the EOL.  That said, their shipping is an EVEN BIGGER gamble (another reason to secure a nice box NISB from LEGO Shop at Home directly).  

ONce in a blue moon a great set goes on sale on LEGO black Friday or end of year. Disney Train, Ninjago City, Docks, large Orange Porsche, CLoud City, etc...can hit 20 to 30+% off.  Has not really happened since COvid...but I got like 6 Tantives for like 35% off back in the day.

Thanks so much to everyone for all of the information!  I know within a few years I'll have first-hand experience myself on some of this, but I appreciate everybody sharing your wisdom with me now.