It appears that the Elrond from the upcoming set will be very different and more plain than the collectible one in the bag: http://www.geekexchange.com/toy-fair-2013-lego-lord-of-the-rings-lone-ranger-and-tmnt-42505.html/lego-lotr-council-of-elrond How does this affect the value of both Elronds?

I think its too soon to start guessing about LOTR minifig values without knowing what future release will bring. If these are the only Elrond figures ever released I would think collectors will show a strong preference for the first issued collectible one. If we end up with say 8 versions of Elrond through the whole run of the line then one may be the preferred, the "definitive", Elrond with a premium value assigned based on rarity. The whole line will be like that. Right now its impossible to speculate about future value of the current available minifigures because we don't know what new figures will be released in the future. Look at the Harry Potter line for an idea of what might be in store for LOTR investors; endless rehashes of many key characters, but other characters released only once and a subsequent premium value assigned to their figures.

I think it will dampen the growth in the polybag Elrond just a touch, as previously it was the only way to get him. But I can't see them releasing another set with that polybag version as he is in full battle armor based on the battle with Sauron at the end of the 2nd Age, which was only in the movies during the introduction narrative. Long term I still think the polybag will increase a lot more.

Should not really affect the value for the earlier Elrond at all. We can assume the demand for the earlier Elrond figure will remain relatively consistent. Anyone who is willing to pay +/- $20 for a minifig is a collector and will not stop wanting a polybag Elrond because a Elrond variant is released. I should have slipped the Game Stop kid $100 and grabbed the whole box lol.

I think its too soon to start guessing about LOTR minifig values without knowing what future release will bring. If these are the only Elrond figures ever released I would think collectors will show a strong preference for the first issued collectible one. If we end up with say 8 versions of Elrond through the whole run of the line then one may be the preferred, the "definitive", Elrond with a premium value assigned based on rarity. The whole line will be like that. Right now its impossible to speculate about future value of the current available minifigures because we don't know what new figures will be released in the future. Look at the Harry Potter line for an idea of what might be in store for LOTR investors; endless rehashes of many key characters, but other characters released only once and a subsequent premium value assigned to their figures.

Just for grins, which are the more rare HP figures?