2 hours ago, Pseudoty said:

Deal, I will trade you for that NISB Pirates of Barracuda Bay that you want and throw in a Keychain? 

uh excuse me, the box will have a photo of yours truly on it... thats worth at least x2 keychains

Redacted 

Edited June 24, 20241 yr by Billy Brick

On 6/21/2024 at 7:57 PM, exciter1 said:

Some past GWPs are starting to payoff, like 40486 Mini Adidas and 40448 Vintage Car.

Here's a good link to analyze the performance of all the GWPs, Insider Rewards, In-Store Promos, etc -- pretty much everything we discuss in this forum's topic.

https://www.bric*economy.com/analysis-subthemes (replace the * with a "k" 😬)

Edited June 24, 20241 yr by Captain_Obvious

4 minutes ago, Captain_Obvious said:

Here's a good link to analyze the performance of all the GWPs, Insider Rewards, In-Store Promos, etc -- pretty much everything we discuss in this forum/topic.

https://www.bric*economy.com/analysis-subthemes

 

I think that chart is pretty misleading. The annual growth rate is based on the Lego price that shows up on your receipt. Most of the growth is the initial jump. Looking at the two sets that were mentioned above, there has been virtually no growth:

 

Hey look, it's every "influencers" favorite set.

Maybe I'm not smart enough... but since it says growth is calculated like this... how is a set that retired less than 3 years ago, selling nearly 500% the RRP, only having annual growth of 36%? 

Almost like that entire website is built on a hype model made to make you click links for affiliate kickbacks. 

Edited June 24, 20241 yr by brickvoyeur

2 hours ago, brickvoyeur said:

Hey look, it's every "influencers" favorite set.

Maybe I'm not smart enough... but since it says growth is calculated like this... how is a set that retired less than 3 years ago, selling nearly 500% the RRP, only having annual growth of 36%? 

Almost like that entire website is built on a hype model made to make you click links for affiliate kickbacks. 

I believe they’re using the compounded annual growth rate formula, but it looks like they rounded it up to 5 years instead of the actual 4.11 years since the retail price release to today’s value?

Edited June 24, 20241 yr by Captain_Obvious

I like companies that are bad at math, they tend to pay well to fix things

Yay LEGO!

7 minutes ago, Captain_Obvious said:

I believe they’re using the compounded annual growth rate formula, but it looks like they rounded it up to 5 years instead of the actual 4.11 years since the retail price release to today’s value?

The tooltip says it goes from the date of retirement. So even rounding up it would be 3 years. Growth listed at 384% but annual growth at 36%? The site is just preying on the hype and using them as revenue. 

CAGR is a fine tool if you're calculating your overall return across a portfolio... but not a great tool calculating an individual set. 

The site fails at basic data pulls as well, as it has the helmet listed at $305.05 on Amazon, but both listings are well over $400

Thankfully their fancy AI model that calculates price isn't actually setting the price. Otherwise we're in store for a more than 20% drop in price in the next 2 years.

No need to defend it, it's not your site. It's just a flawed tool, using bad data, that can't follow basic arithmetic. Even the dipwads in the brickcucks facebook group mostly reject it and utilize it mostly for tracking their collections. Which is where it works out well for those who understand the market, as the site will tell you what is being hoarded. The helmet collection is the fith most popular subtheme!

2 hours ago, brickvoyeur said:

The tooltip says it goes from the date of retirement. So even rounding up it would be 3 years. Growth listed at 384% but annual growth at 36%?

Cool. I'm just trying to figure out how they got the 36% - F, the tooltip. It takes a lot of time to individually skew each set to rig pricing, so my logic is that they're using a formula for automation. So, my question, and I think yours was: how did they arrive at 36%? I don't trust their "words" because they say retirement date and that math didn't make sense, but the release date got me the 36%

Release: March 2020

Today's date: June 2024

n = 4.25 years

Ending Value = $290.53
Beginning Value = $59.99

CAGR = 36.3%

Sorry, the last post's math was a little rough -- was trying to do it in my head. Could still be very wrong, but I would like to get to the bottom of the 36%, thats it.

Is the GWP Fireworks out  yet?

29 minutes ago, airhanny said:

Is the GWP Fireworks out  yet?

hold on.  let me go to lego.com and check . . .

26 minutes ago, gmpirate said:

hold on.  let me go to lego.com and check . . .

I checked not available. But several were sold already on eBay

I see in FB LEGO groups, the Fireworks was sold around $60 but I don't see it available in stores or online. I don't know how they got this GWP.

On 6/21/2024 at 11:53 AM, Pseudoty said:

VIP early access ends on the 23rd then while supplies last until the 30th so there is possibly some overlap. 

😭😭😭

6 hours ago, Pseudoty said:

😭😭😭

Translation: Jules Verne has departed ...

4 hours ago, SpaceFan9 said:

Translation: Jules Verne has departed ...

Plenty in stores

Missed double promo by a day... fireworks live

The last 2 Ninjago sets are available, Limit 100 each 🤪

Also some pricey magnets and few other new things. 

interesting the magnets come with a base and stand.  they are almost expensive as the ninjago sets

they also say limited where the ninjago sets dont

not sure what to think that's a lot of point for the three of them

1 hour ago, starwarsxpress said:

interesting the magnets come with a base and stand.  they are almost expensive as the ninjago sets

they also say limited where the ninjago sets dont

not sure what to think that's a lot of point for the three of them

Somebody buy one of those $20 magnets and let us all know why it’s better than the free ones you get from the plumber or dentist.

1 hour ago, Billy Brick said:

Somebody buy one of those $20 magnets and let us all know why it’s better than the free ones you get from the plumber or dentist.

Done.

4 hours ago, Pseudoty said:

Limit 100 each 🤪

Haha, that has to be a mistake (that no one will be taking advantage of). The older ones are still showing limit 1.

Just now, Captain_Obvious said:

Haha, that has to be a mistake (that no one will be taking advantage of). The older ones are still showing limit 1.

I grabbed one of each of the two new ones. I didn't get a magnet but they do have a coin vibe going on. 

Do you have less than 4,600 points left because if you go to Rewards > Featured Rewards then you can get as many sets as your points will allow. However, if you go to Rewards > Collectables or Sets it is Limit 1. 

This spread takes me back to the arcades of my childhood, filled with "games of chance" where you could win tickets for prizes. My poor dad would spend $100 just so we could leave with a toy valued at about $1.

12 hours ago, Captain_Obvious said:

Done.

so Captain my Captain its the equivalent of $52 to get a set of these 3 VIP magnets.  of course you have stud city showing it off on their stand and display on you tube and talking about how if they run out quickly it will go crazy like the coins did. I'm inclined to get all 3 and burn half my points (after I got the last two ninjago sets) but I made myself say I will only spend the vip points on free lego from now on.  what a situation.  what say you ?