July 30, 2020 complete sales data.

Sets Sold: 143

Sales: $ 175,000.54

Average Sale: $ 1223.78

Selling prices for both BIN and AUCT are trending downward over the last few days.

Lego42113_Sales_0730.pdf

4 minutes ago, Sergei316 said:

July 30, 2020 complete sales data.

Sets Sold: 143

Sales: $ 175,000.54

Average Sale: $ 1223.78

Selling prices for both BIN and AUCT are trending downward over the last few days.

Lego42113_Sales_0730.pdf 460.8 kB · 0 downloads

You think the downward trend in price is due to people assuming there will be plenty of stock come tomorrow, thus lowering price?  Surely if, in 24 hours time, we see that there is very little stock around, the price will go higher than it ever was?  What are people's thoughts on that?

I think it represents that the panic buying is subsiding.  I would tend to believe that if eBay is not flooded with sets in the next 24 hours prices MAY climb.

We know that there are, at this moment, 224 sets that have been sold and listed on eBay.  If we see the number of available sets to purchase double (160+) over the next 24 hours, prices will start to decline.

My biggest question to everyone is, what is considered "RARE" in the Lego world? 1000?  2500?

 

21 minutes ago, Sergei316 said:

I think it represents that the panic buying is subsiding.  I would tend to believe that if eBay is not flooded with sets in the next 24 hours prices MAY climb.

We know that there are, at this moment, 224 sets that have been sold and listed on eBay.  If we see the number of available sets to purchase double (160+) over the next 24 hours, prices will start to decline.

My biggest question to everyone is, what is considered "RARE" in the Lego world? 1000?  2500?

 

Currently, there are more auctions being sold than listed.  And here is a snippet of countries captured so far for my numbers.  Australia in the past 48hrs has been making a run for the money. I imagine this is due to Myers and Target selling their stock locally.  Based on the number of auctions being sold, demand is still higher than supply.  Additionally, price is being driven by currently the sellers lowering their price to compete with others.

New Zealand has really dropped off the map for listings btw.  Total of 53 I've counted.

Edited July 31, 20205 yr by Klownicle

9 minutes ago, Sergei316 said:

I think it represents that the panic buying is subsiding.  I would tend to believe that if eBay is not flooded with sets in the next 24 hours prices MAY climb.

We know that there are, at this moment, 224 sets that have been sold and listed on eBay.  If we see the number of available sets to purchase double (160+) over the next 24 hours, prices will start to decline.

My biggest question to everyone is, what is considered "RARE" in the Lego world? 1000?  2500?

 

That's what I wondered, we have sets that are out for two years before retiring and then prices climb even after being sold for two years.  Sets that have only been out for one year rise even faster by my research.  This set was only out in limited stock in a small time frame.  I can't help but think price should rocket, especially if the USA don't get it at all, all collectors and those who want the set would need to buy from overseas. Is this right or am I missing something?

1 minute ago, MasamuneHonjo said:

That's what I wondered, we have sets that are out for two years before retiring and then prices climb even after being sold for two years.  Sets that have only been out for one year rise even faster by my research.  This set was only out in limited stock in a small time frame.  I can't help but think price should rocket, especially if the USA don't get it at all, all collectors and those who want the set would need to buy from overseas. Is this right or am I missing something?

If the US does not get any sets, which is probably the case,  then collectors/investors from the US will buy at high prices.  Guaranteed.  Will it be higher than "todays" prices is the question.

 

5 minutes ago, Sergei316 said:

If the US does not get any sets, which is probably the case,  then collectors/investors from the US will buy at high prices.  Guaranteed.  Will it be higher than "todays" prices is the question.

 

Why is there still hope US will get stock?  Lego's release date for this series was/is Sept 1st?  I suppose if we are holding on to that hope, we wouldn't know for a month.

Just now, Klownicle said:

Why is there still hope US will get stock?  Lego's release date for this series was/is Sept 1st?  I suppose if we are holding on to that hope, we wouldn't know for a month.

No hope in my opinion.  

Just now, Sergei316 said:

No hope in my opinion.  

As someone who is in the US, what is your view?  You think fellow Americans would pay more than it is currently selling for?

I believe so.

Currently, sets are averaging just over $1100 (data from 07/30) per set.  If the market does get flooded, which it most likely will if sets are available at retail on 08/01, then prices will decline.  At that point, I would wait to see how low it goes and how many sets are available for purchase before committing to buy any more sets.

On the other hand, if sets are relatively scarce on 08/01, I think sets will gradually climb over the next few weeks and months. At what price point I am not sure.  That will be determined by the buyers.

My projections:

A) If sets are scarce/rare, I could see prices eclipse $1500-$2000 per set over the next 4 to 6 months based on condition of set,

B.)  If sets are readily available, prices will plummet and believe $350-$500 per set would become the more practical price point.  This is based solely on market availability.

 

4 minutes ago, Sergei316 said:

 

A) If sets are scarce/rare, I could see prices eclipse $1500-$2000 per set over the next 4 to 6 months based on condition of set,

 

 

don't say that

11 minutes ago, joneyyy1981 said:

don't say that

WhY?

29 minutes ago, Sergei316 said:

WhY?

What about in 2 to 3 years? Is this one of those sets that will climb and climb or will there be a cut off point 

Edited July 31, 20205 yr by raulaco

I look at everything more short term then long term.  If I have to hold a set for 24+ months to maximize my returns then my annualized return on investment drops significantly.  I have a set point for AROI that must be met to make collecting/investing really worth while.

18 minutes ago, Sergei316 said:

I look at everything more short term then long term.  If I have to hold a set for 24+ months to maximize my returns then my annualized return on investment drops significantly.  I have a set point for AROI that must be met to make collecting/investing really worth while.

Ok a year from now lol 

If the set is scarce and or rare, I could see prices exceed $2000 in 12 months.  That means very little eBay activity over the 12 months,

Listing from the US??  Is this legit set from the US?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Lego-42113-V-22-Boeing-Osprey/392892801122?hash=item5b7a3c6062:g:C8MAAOSwZ8ZfJGdb

3 minutes ago, Sergei316 said:

Listing from the US??  Is this legit set from the US?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Lego-42113-V-22-Boeing-Osprey/392892801122?hash=item5b7a3c6062:g:C8MAAOSwZ8ZfJGdb

No, UPC matches overseas and no part count on the front of the box.  I have contacted many sellers and they are drop shipping from overseas.  Explains the high price as well.

Just now, Klownicle said:

No, UPC matches overseas and no part count on the front of the box.  I have contacted many sellers and they are drop shipping from overseas.  Explains the high price as well.

Thanks.

Part count only on US sold boxes?

2 minutes ago, Sergei316 said:

Thanks.

Part count only on US sold boxes?

As far as I'm aware yes.

nothing online from smyths all gone

3 minutes ago, joneyyy1981 said:

nothing online from smyths all gone

Did you manage to get one?

1 minute ago, MasamuneHonjo said:

Did you manage to get one?

no it went live as out of stock, just random singles scattered around telford, portsmouth etc

2 minutes ago, joneyyy1981 said:

no it went live as out of stock, just random singles scattered around telford, portsmouth etc

I wonder if that means some stores still have them as "first come, first serve."

Damn missed out on smyths aswell. Looks like this was the last chance to pick this up apart from any independent shops releasing it today. My days of driving around looking for random lego sets are over, too many wasted trips and time wasted. Can't be bothered gojng on wild goose chases anymore and coming up empty handed, especially right now with covid.

Good luck anyone turning at at their smyths in the morning.

Looks like I'll just be concentrating on the 2020 EOL list.