I am trying to decide whether buying Amazon sales is worth it. I see two, maybe three choices. 

1. Wait and hope to find the set for sale at Walmart/Meijer/Target.(When I am saying this I am not counting a 40%+ clearance, that to me is a pretty much automatic buy if it is a set I like)

2. Get the set when Lego is doing a promotion(The automatic 5% from ViP points does matter).

3. Get the set when Amazon puts it on sale.(Normally 20% is what you can get)

Which choice is the best? I understand that deals like the 60 years of the brick aren't common. I also assume I would hit free shipping on either SaH or Amazon. 

Thanks!

Depends on the promo

Depends on the discount

Depends on whether you pay taxes at Amazon

Depends on the depth of discounts at your local stores during clearance season

There isn't a right answer and it varies from day to day.

Depends on the set as well.  Some themes are heavily discounted by Amazon and the Targets/Walmarts of the world.

It's rare that LEGO Shop at Home beats amazons or walmarts best sales. Maybe once or twice a year they have a promo that gets me to purchase there. 

The LEGO Shop at Home freebie is.where its at if you have a BM lego store. Gingerbread houses, 60 years of bricks, etc etc without worry of ban. Hard to stock up if just ordering online