Did Lego make a huge price increase on its 2016 sets? I was at ToysRUs today and saw this set for $70 CAD!! Now I know the weak Canadian dollar is a contributor... but $65 for only 376 pieces!!! That's getting insane!! Prisoner Island at $120 CAD for 754 pieces! If license fee was involved then I understand, but for unlicensed product, this is starting to get expensive and ultimately leads to the bubble thread on this forum.

 

Edited December 30, 201510 yr by tacsniper

On ‎12‎/‎30‎/‎2015 at 7:18 PM, tacsniper said:

Did Lego make a huge price increase on its 2016 sets? I was at ToysRUs today and saw this set for $70 CAD!! Now I know the weak Canadian dollar is a contributor... but $65 for only 376 pieces!!! That's getting insane!! Prisoner Island at $120 CAD for 754 pieces! If license fee was involved then I understand, but for unlicensed product, this is starting to get expensive and ultimately leads to the bubble thread on this forum.

While there may be a somewhat decent amount of unique large pieces such as the truck's ladder and I realize the "price per piece" formula is neither an exact science nor a good scale to use by itself, the final product here (just going by the box) simply does not appear to warrant $50 US honestly. At just $20 these Fire Trucks (4208 & 60002) were substantial, for $10 more the 60061 was a hefty rig, and finally a little more at $40 the 7213 offered a fair amount with 388 parts including minifigures.

The Fire Truck in this set is nice and long with three good minifigures attempting to douse what's left of a tiny tower but it is not worth what is being asked. In my opinion I would say $40 or at worst $45 which is pushing it. I wouldn't touch this or similar sets unless they hit clearance.

I know no one asked (but because this is the internet I can freely answer questions anyway :)) but I was thinking about the question "how much has Lego increased in price over the last few years?".

Sure someone will come and blow this analysis out of the water but I thought that by looking at the modulars eliminates any noise around IP costs, spikes due to rare mini figs and the size of the pieces in each set should be on average a similar %age (ie proportion of big, medium and small pieces would be similar).
Normally i wouldn't look at price per piece at all as a gauge but I think when comparing modulars you can (just to caveat I only own 2 so this is a bit of proof by induction).
(sorry guys in EU I only looked at US and UK data).
I used the US & UK CPI index to rebase the price of past modulars to today (hope that makes sense).

Looking at the @ retail price per piece of modulars in the US its fluctuated around 7 cents per piece.  In dollar terms the brick bank is 5% more expensive then Cafe Corner.
For the UK its different.  Brick bank offer relatively good value (20% increase) however DO is a huge 37% increase on a price per piece basis.

However if I adjust for inflation and back out the historic price per pieces in today's money things look a little different (using CPI index which doesn't include mortgages).
For the US brick bank is down 8% inflation adjusted (bargain).  For the UK market Palace cinema is still up 12% vs Cafe Corner but the new brick bank comes in at -5% (similar to our counterparts across the pond).
So whats my point?  I know the old "adjusting for inflation" can be a bit of a crock but it doesn't really surprise me that inflation adjusted Lego prices are down - I think the general uptick in prices is probably more due to licence costs & economies of scale (relatively more costly to produce smaller sets) then most realiSe.  
Also this kind of enforces (in my mind) that there isn't a primary market bubble for the product yet.  Lego havent started wildy increasing the modualr pricers on the back of retired secondary market sales.

My analysis is limited to the modualrs but IMO they offer some of the best value to collectors (especially AFOLS).  Now back to trolling.....

(Data I used is below - if i messed anything up then I'm only human so please don't lambast too hard)

Set	Number	Release	Pieces	PPP US	PPP UK	US RPI	UK RPI	PPP US Today	PPP UK Today
Café Corner	10182	Oct-07	2056	6.8	4.3	209	824	7.7	5.3
Market Street	10190	Oct-07	1248	7.2	4.8	209	824	8.2	6.0
Green Grocer	10185	Mar-08	2352	6.4	4.3	214	837	7.1	5.2
Fire Brigade	10197	Sep-09	2231	6.7	4.5	216	849	7.4	5.4
Grand Emporium	10221	Mar-10	2182	6.9	6.1	218	871	7.5	7.2
Pet Shop	10218	May-11	2032	7.4	5.9	226	928	7.8	6.5
Town Hall	10224	Mar-12	2766	7.2	5.4	229	950	7.5	5.9
Palace Cinema	10232	Mar-13	2196	6.8	5.5	233	981	7.0	5.7
Parisian Restaurant	10243	Jan-14	2469	6.5	5.4	234	997	6.6	5.5
Detectives Office	10246	Jan-15	2262	7.1	5.9	234	1008	7.2	6.0
BrickBank	10251	Jan-16	2380	7.1	5.0	237	1025	7.1	5.0

30 minutes ago, Lego_Yoda said:

 

Nice analysis, however there is a generally better LEGO metric than price per piece: weight. 

Example: Sydney Opera House vs. Tower Bridge. Former has about 75% of the TB pieces, however weights like 25% more as I remember. Still, lots of people don't consider this fact and regard SOH as a bad deal in comparison.

30 minutes ago, inversion said:

Nice analysis, however there is a generally better LEGO metric than price per piece: weight. 

Example: Sydney Opera House vs. Tower Bridge. Former has about 75% of the TB pieces, however weights like 25% more as I remember. Still, lots of people don't consider this fact and regard SOH as a bad deal in comparison.

Good point! Had thought about the SOH vs TB weight comparison but never put 2 and 2 together (although this slighty refutes some of my conclusions based on price per piece).

Don't mean to bore everyone with stats but on a Price per Gram basis re-based using both US cost per gram are relatively stable but UK cost per gram have seen quite a fluctuation (although it still appears that brick bank is "fairly" priced.  
Whats quite striking is that Green grocer and Town hall are the best "value" sets at RRP.
Grand Emporium (when I get the set number right) looks like a bit of an anomaly in terms of UK and EU pricing. Glad TLG didn't continue down that upward trend.
(btw the PPG US is in cents and in pence for UK incase anyone cares - one day i might convert at the historic FX rates to get a better idea of pricing diffs between regions).

No more table from me now - promise!

Set	Number	Weight (g)	PPG US	PPG UK	US RPI	UK RPI	PPG US Today	PPG UK Today
Café Corner	10182	2591	5.4	3.4	209	824	6.1	4.2
Market Street	10190	1780	5.1	3.4	209	824	5.7	4.2
Green Grocer	10185	3180	4.7	3.1	214	837	5.2	3.9
Fire Brigade	10197	2761	5.4	3.6	216	849	6.0	4.4
Grand Emporium	10211	2903	5.2	4.6	218	871	5.6	5.4
Pet Shop	10218	2820	5.3	4.3	226	928	5.6	4.7
Town Hall	10224	3825	5.2	3.9	229	950	5.4	4.2
Palace Cinema	10232	2770	5.4	4.3	233	981	5.5	4.5
Parisian Restaurant	10243	2610	6.1	5.1	234	997	6.2	5.2
Detectives Office	10246	2624	6.1	5.1	234	1008	6.2	5.2
BrickBank	10251	2745	6.2	4.4	237	1025	6.2	4.4

Edited January 14, 20169 yr by Lego_Yoda
Discrepancy with my first post

I don't recall this posted but I just noticed that LEGO Shop at Home U.S. raised the key chains that used to be $4.99 to $5.99...

I could be wrong but I think the magnets used to be $5.99 & now they're $6.99...

Edited January 22, 20169 yr by dcdfan

On December 30, 2015 at 8:47 PM, Phil B said:

2380 pieces for $170 = $0.0714/pc. Compare with Detective Office 2262 for $160 = $0.0707/pc - same piece price. Parisian Restaurant was a better deal (>2400pc for $150) but Palace Cinema is again close to the $0.07/pc. So no change there I'd say.

my opinion is that this isn't the only way to look at it, the way I look at it is: (and forget town hall) modulars use to be $150.....then $160.....now $170......wtf!

24 minutes ago, dcdfan said:

I don't recall this posted but I just noticed that LEGO Shop at Home U.S. raised the key chains that used to be $4.99 to $5.99...

I could be wrong but I think the magnets used to be $5.99 & now they're $6.99...

I'm not sure about magnets, I noticed that Santa keychain is dollar more, didn't look at others....that's bs IMO 

45 minutes ago, dcdfan said:

I don't recall this posted but I just noticed that LEGO Shop at Home U.S. raised the key chains that used to be $4.99 to $5.99...

I could be wrong but I think the magnets used to be $5.99 & now they're $6.99...

I can confirm that LEGOLAND California is selling key chains at $5.99, and they usually price things in line with S@H.  So, I'm assuming this is the new normal.

Yeah the new ones are now 5.99. LL FL had actually gone to the 5.99 in fall 2015 while others kept 4.99.  Now the new ones are 5.99 everywhere.  LL DC also raised the 5 for 15 to 5 for 16 in accordance with the jump on Jan 1st 

 

Edited January 23, 20169 yr by ravenb99

Don't know about you guys but I absolutely LOVE this fire truck. RRP here is pretty steep though at 45 euro. Collishop belgium is selling these now at 29.95 euro. Bought 2 and call me crazy, I feel like this will be a so called hidden gem. Am I crazy or do others feel the same way? Been more than a decade (even 2) since a fire truck this big was released.

Biggest complaint I've read is how expensive it is relative to the number of bricks and improper placement of the ladder compared to real trucks.  Even on discount at $40-USD, I think it's high.

 

It won´t do as well as 60061 airport tender as it is more generic. At more than 50% off, I´d been in for a few, though.

It's fun to speculate, and even more fun when some of your gambles pay off, but most fire and police sets are better off left for kiddos. Unless you can acquire them at a very steep discount, your investing dollars can be spent better elsewhere. There are just too many rehashes in these two sub themes to provide solid returns. The gems in City are usually from unique sub themes, unique vehicles (logging truck, airport fire truck, 3222 Limosuine are a few off the top of my head), and planes. People love planes!

As an adult, I think a fire truck like this is way overdue. Will kids like it? Who knows. The price will keep it out of the kid's hands unless retailers discount it.

4 hours ago, SlashMcGee said:

Don't know about you guys but I absolutely LOVE this fire truck. RRP here is pretty steep though at 45 euro. Collishop belgium is selling these now at 29.95 euro. Bought 2 and call me crazy, I feel like this will be a so called hidden gem. Am I crazy or do others feel the same way? Been more than a decade (even 2) since a fire truck this big was released.

You may very well be clinically insane but such crazed effort could pay out in the end. It is a nice all-around set; if only the retail was not so steep to begin with. Even from a builder's standpoint, a discount is a must for this one and €30 sounds alright.

On 3/18/2016 at 0:09 AM, SlashMcGee said:

Don't know about you guys but I absolutely LOVE this fire truck. RRP here is pretty steep though at 45 euro. Collishop belgium is selling these now at 29.95 euro. Bought 2 and call me crazy, I feel like this will be a so called hidden gem. Am I crazy or do others feel the same way? Been more than a decade (even 2) since a fire truck this big was released.

+1 here. It looks outstanding and has cool functions. I also feel its price tag is accompanied by less production than other sets. I wonder if its sort of exclusive or what.

Brickset says : "An exclusive release set in some countries and not shown in the general consumer catalogue; also available from LEGO Shop At Home."

The price is still 29,95€ at Collishop.

53 minutes ago, Kurinoko said:

Brickset says : "An exclusive release set in some countries and not shown in the general consumer catalogue; also available from LEGO Shop At Home."

The price is still 29,95€ at Collishop.

It looks exclusive also and that tells part of the high price contribution.