This is for current sets, not anything close to EOL. I am curious, at what point do you pull the trigger and buy the set? For me, I normally don't see anything go lower than 20% (unless I find "special offers" - like Amazon signup bonus), so right now my trigger is 20% off MSRP. Should I be aiming for better price? (Assume this is mainly for large sets.. like modular building sets, UCS sets, etc, if this makes a difference)

In general 20% off is where I begin to look at buying a set and I usually get excited at 25% off or more if it is a set I really want. I think the set size, theme, exclusivity, etc do make a huge difference! For example I rarely see the large modulars more than 20% off, most I have purchased right around 20% off. Small sets, like $15 and under seldom have really big discounts until clearance sales and then the popular ones will already be gone. Small City sets seem to be around a long time, but small sets for other themes seem to sell out quickly and often double in price once they are difficult to find. There are always exceptions, I am so glad I didn't load up on The Swamp Creature from Monster Fighters, it still seems to be everywhere! When it became clear The Zombies were difficult to find I ordered most of mine during Lego's pre-Black Friday sale so I got 10% off the top, 5% in VIP points and I ordered four at a time so I could get the Holiday Set to sell to offset the cost. I might have gotten 20% off at best (no tax where I now live and free shipping helped a lot). I know the Chima sets aren't that exciting to most people but I have already bought a few with at least a 24% discount. But then, I teach STEM classes to elementary school kids using mostly Legos. I don't think these count too much as I will open them and use them in my classes. I think anyone who collects or invests in Lego sets develops some sense of which sets will do well, just like stock market traders. And, I think, with a lot of work, most collectors or investors will win more than they lose, but you simply will not always win!

Sweet, thanks for your insight! I'm a pretty busy guy, I like to keep things in my life as simple as possible (uncomplicated) - thus why I also invest into passively managed index funds.. boring but a very smooth ride, helps me sleep better at night without having to research which stocks to buy or sell all darned time. My criteria for which sets I'm interested in is really simple: 1) anything that I think is "cool" - chances are good I won't be the only one who thinks that! 2) Large set, because I think they have more appeal than smaller sets for LEGO enthusiasts. They will keep builders occupied for hours, making them feel like they're getting their money's worth. 3) For older crowd: +12 or +16 - because this also has wider appeal - both kids and adults would be interested And to *much* lesser extent, 4) contains mini-figs. Not sure why there's so much interest in mini-figs in the investing world, but I do recognize/acknowledge that fact and factor that in. But if set meets 1 thru 3 above and has no mini-figs, I'm still getting it. I got Tower Bridge (at 20% off) and IS (at retail, cuz everyone feels it's going EOL soon, so do I). I'd love to score R2D2 set (10225) next, hopefully at 20% or more off. No rush, because it's a fairly new set. I've set alerts to alert me when price falls below certain threshold. I have been studying prices for the last few weeks (so my LEGO investing experience is still extremely limited compared to guys like you and others), and was wondering if 20% is a good general trigger point to buy a set, and I think you confirmed it.

20% is a good point to buy, but there are sets that will never see that...especially some of the Friends theme. The Haunted House is another set that might not see 20% off. Overall, 20% off is a fair discount. Tack that on with free shipping and no tax, you have a winner in my book. Anything more than 20% is gravy.

R2 D2 was discounted pretty good a about a month ago on amazon for over a week, can't remember how much but I think it was close to 20%

R2D2 was 139.99 on both Amazon and Walmart. I think it was the second week of December. I was surprised it lasted more than a few days so there must have been a decent amount of stock sitting out there. 20% off "retail" is really good for a Lego set. As we all know, you have to watch out for Toys R US. Their Lego is price above MSRP so you have to wait till it goes on a really good sale before even considering. As time goes on and you memorize prices and sales, you'll realize when to buy at what price.

I have a hard time pulling the trigger unless it is at least 30% off. Of course the more expensive sets I will just look at $ figures rather than percentage. 50% off is the minimum if I am going to turn and burn (buy to sell right away) because of all the fee's involved with selling on ebay etc... Harder to find at 50 off but a much better ROI (return on investment). I have learned to be very patient in waiting for sales. It took a while to learn patience because I really like to spend my money that I really dont have.

I have a hard time pulling the trigger unless it is at least 30% off. Of course the more expensive sets I will just look at $ figures rather than percentage. 50% off is the minimum if I am going to turn and burn (buy to sell right away) because of all the fee's involved with selling on ebay etc... Harder to find at 50 off but a much better ROI (return on investment). I have learned to be very patient in waiting for sales. It took a while to learn patience because I really like to spend my money that I really dont have.

Indeed, patience is key. However I find only very few lego sets are put on sale this January, or only stuff I'm not interested in. I thought there would be more interesting deals. I also make use of price tracker sites for Amazon that alert you when I set gets to a certain price you set. Quite useful if you don't have that many choices for shopping online but Amazon.

Also look for websites that run "flash sales" or whatever you call them in English. I got 2 Technic Supercars for 70

What about buying really early? I noticed on EBay a Legends of Chima #70006 Cragger

What about buying really early?

I noticed on EBay a Legends of Chima #70006 Cragger